The defending champion Denver Nuggets and the Minnesota Timberwolves square off in the Western Conference Semifinals which will be a rematch of last year’s opening round. The budding rivalry between the Nuggets and Timberwolves continues with the most exciting second-round matchup in the 2024 NBA playoffs. The Timberwolves seek revenge, while the Nuggets face a tough opponent on their quest to win back-to-back championships.
The Nuggets are the favorite to win the series at -200 odds according to BetMGM. The Timberwolves are +165 odds to pick off the defending champs.
The Nuggets are +260 odds to win consecutive championships, and they’re +115 odds to claim another Western Conference title.
The Timberwolves are +900 odds to win their first NBA championship, and +375 odds to win their first Western Conference crown. The Timberwolves are one of six franchises who never appeared in the NBA Finals.
A Firey and Fierce Rivalry
In the 2023 playoffs, the top-seeded Nuggets needed only five games to knock out the up-and-coming Timberwolves who were the #8 seed. The Timberwolves secured the last seed through the Play-In Tournament, but the young squad lacked postseason experience and were exposed by the Nuggets in the opening round.
Prior to the start of the 2022-23 season, the Timberwolves made a controversial trade when they acquired three-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert from the Utah Jazz. The Timberwolves gave up five players and five draft picks including four first-round picks in an attempt to bolster their frontline and vastly improve their defense. The trade looked like a bust for most of last season and fans questioned the decision when the Nuggets knocked them out in five games in the 2023 playoffs.
What a difference one season makes. The #1 seed in the Western Conference this year came down to the final weekend of the regular season with the Nuggets, Timberwolves, and Oklahoma City Thunder jockeying for the top spot. The Thunder locked up the #1 seed, while the Nuggets settled on the #2 seed, and the Timberwolves locked up the #3 seed in one of the closest races in recent memory.
In the opening round, the Timberwolves smoked the #6 Phoenix Suns with a four-game sweep and advanced to the conference semifinals for the first time in 20 years. The Nuggets knocked out the #7 Los Angeles Lakers in five games to advance to the conference semifinals. Both winning squads dominated their respective series, which set up an anticipated rematch between the Nuggets and Timberwolves.
Nuggets Rely on Their Starting Five… Too Much?
Head coach Michael Malone takes an old-school approach, and he shortens his postseason rotation compared to the regular season. He relies heavily on his starting five in the playoffs, so a title defense will be derailed by any serious injuries.
Last year’s NBA Finals MVP Nikola Jokic almost averaged a triple-double against the Lakers in the opening round with 28.2 points, 16.2 rebounds, and 9.8 assists per game.
In the first round, star guard Jamal Murray shrugged off a strained calf and led the Nuggets to a Game 5 victory to send the Lakers packing. Murray dropped 32 points and knocked down his second game-winning bucket in this year’s postseason and didn’t look like a player nursing a calf injury. Murray averaged 23.6 points, 7.2 assists, and 4.6 rebounds against the Lakers.
Backup center DeAndre Jordan has not seen much court time in this year’s postseason, but he could be a huge factor if any of the starters get into early foul trouble. Jordan went viral at the start of the regular season when he dressed up like pop star Taylor Swift for Halloween. But the 16-year veteran appeared in only 36 games with the Nuggets this season and averaged a career low 3.9 points and 4.4 rebounds.
The Nuggets parted ways with veteran point guard Bruce Brown in the offseason, which was a huge blow because Brown was strong locker room presence and played some big minutes off the bench during last season’s title run.
Reggie Jackson is the current backup point guard, and he joined the Nuggets late last season in a trade with the Los Angeles Clippers. He appeared in all 82 games this season and started 23 games to fill in for teammates. Jackson averages 10.2 points and 3.8 rebounds off the bench in the regular season, but he only logged one game with significant playing time in the first round. In limited action, he saw his stats drastically dip to 3.2 points and 1.4 assists per game in the postseason.
The rest of the second unit is rounded out by second-year guard Christian Braun (3.8 ppg) and second-year forward Peyton Watson (3.4 ppg). Both players also saw a noticeable reduction in playing time and scoring in the postseason.
Minny’s Ant-Man and KAT Ready for Rematch
The Timberwolves are led by two former first-overall draft picks. Shooting guard Anthony “Ant-Man” Edwards was the top pick in the 2020 NBA Draft out of Georgia, and power forward Karl-Anthony “KAT” Towns was the #1 pick in the 2015 NBA Draft from Kentucky.
The Timberwolves need their dynamic duo of Ant Man and KAT to outgun Denver’s two superstars in Jokic and Murray. Edwards averaged 25.9 points per game in the regular season, but he tallied 31 points per game in the first round against the Suns. He dropped 40 points in Game 4 including seven 3-pointers in the close-out victory against the Suns to complete a sweep.
Towns missed 20 games toward the end of the regular season due to a knee injury, but he’s averaging 19.3 points and 9.5 rebounds per game this postseason.
If the Timberwolves expect to upend the Nuggets, their defense must step up. The Timberwolves acquired Gobert for the sole reason to shut down Jokic in the playoffs, but Jokic shot 50% from 3-point range and averaged 26.2 points, 12.4 rebounds, and 9.0 assists per game against the Timberwolves last year. Gobert will have his hands full trying to keep Jokic in check during their rematch.
Prop Bets: Outcome, Result, Game/Series Double
BetMGM offers a variety of prop bets for the upcoming Nuggets/Timberwolves series. You can wager on how many games the best-of-seven series will last. Six games is the betting favorite at +200 odds, followed by seven games (+225), five games (+230), and a four-game sweep from either team is a long shot at +500 odds.
You can wager on the exact outcome of the series. The Nuggets winning 4-1 is the current favorite at +350 odds, followed by the Nuggets advancing in seven games at 4-3 at +425 odds and the Nuggets winning 4-2 in six games at +500 odds. A sweep by the Nuggets pays out +750 odds.
If you want to back the Timberwolves in a series outcome prop bet, the most popular pick is a 4-2 result or six games which pays out +500 odds. If the Timberwolves prevail in seven-game series with a 4-3 result, then that pays out +850 odds. A sweep by the Timberwolves is a long shot on the board at +1600 odds, and a five-game series win at 4-1 overall outcome pays out +1100 odds.
BetMGM offers a cool prop bet called the Game/Series Double when you predict the winner of Game 1 and the overall series winner. The Nuggets winning Game 1 and the series is the outright favorite at -120 odds. The Timberwolves winning Game 1 and the series pays out +325 odds. The Nuggets winning Game 1, but losing the series pays out +500 odds. The Timberwolves winning Game 1, but losing the series pays out +475 odds.
You can also place an over/under prop bet on how many games the series will last. Under -4.5 games, or a sweep by either team, pays out +500 odds. Any result that is not a sweep or a series than runs five games or longer is a big favorite at -800 odds.
Individual Player Props: Joker or Ant-Man as Top Scorer?
It’s not surprising to see that the respective leading scorers from both teams are at the top of the prop betting board by BetMGM. Jokic from the Nuggets is the betting favorite to lead the series in scoring at +150 odds. Edwards from the Timberwolves is +175 odds to lead the series in scoring. Meanwhile, Murray is the closest other favorite at +350 odds to finish the series as the player with the highest scoring average. Towns is a long shot at +1200 odds to lead everyone in scoring.
If you want to wager on the top rebounder this series, then Jokic is also the outright favorite at -125 odds. Gobert is the second favorite on the board at +110 odds.
The best “dish man” this series could be a fun prop bet. Jokic is widely considered the best passing big man in the NBA, which is why he’s the betting favorite to lead the series in assists at -600 odds. Murray offers up the best value on the board at +575 odds. Edwards and backup point guard Mike Conley are long shots from the Timberwolves at +2000 odds.
If you’re a fan of 3-point shooting, then BetMGM also offers a prop bet on the top sniper this series. Nuggets forward Michael Porter, Jr. is a slight favorite to hit the most treys at +225 odds, while Edwards is right behind him at +250 odds. Murray is a close third at +300 odds.
If wanted to get a jump on the awards market for the 2024 NBA Finals, Jayson Tatum from the Boston Celtics is the betting favorite at +200 odds according to BetMGM. Jokic is the second favorite on the board at +300 odds to win the NBA Finals in consecutive postseasons. Edwards is available at +1100 odds, and Murray is +3000 odds.
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