Let’s get this out of the way first. If you’re looking for the most talented, fastest horse to win Kentucky Derby 150, you’re looking at 5-2 morning-line favorite Fierceness.
If you’re expecting a favorite to cross the finish line first for the first time since Maximum Security temporarily—before he was disqualified for interference—captured the 2019 Derby, you’re all-in on Fierceness. After all, you saw his scintillating 13 ½-length destruction of his Florida Derby rivals, reveled in his 110 Beyer Speed Figure—nine points ahead of the next-best Beyer among his rivals—and figured “How can he lose?”
He can.
Twenty Horses, Twenty Stories
That’s the beauty and the beast of a 20-horse Derby field. The endless list of variables to contemplate, the countless scenarios that could transpire in a 10-furlong free-for-all means the only guarantees usually center around who can’t win—rather than who can.
Can Fierceness win? Absolutely. The reigning Champion 2-Year-Old’s Florida Derby demolition was the best race by a sophomore in 2024. He won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile by 6 ¼ lengths and his maiden debut by 11 ½. When this City of Light progeny is on, he’s invincible.
When he’s not—as he wasn’t in his other two starts—he’s invisible. Fierceness’ other two races were seventh in the Grade 1 Champagne and third in the Grade 3 Holy Bull. Along with that manic-depressive record of not putting two good races together, Fierceness also must fight Derby history, courtesy of his Post 17 starting gate. As we discussed last week, horses starting from Post 17 are 0-for-43. They’re 3-for-43 hitting the board.
So when you want to chuck the chalk, who should you look at?
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Closer Conscious
Start with the two premier closers in the field. Yes, we said “closers,” usually a genus that—until the last two years—has been also-rans since the points era began in 2013. Rich Strike in 2022 and Mage last year illustrated that when you produce an incendiary pace—a sub-46-second opening half-mile—closers can close.
If Fierceness and other front-end speedsters such as Dornoch open the early jets, that opens the door for Sierra Leone (3-1) and Catching Freedom (8-1). On one front, Sierra Leone’s Post 2 isn’t ideal, considering no horse starting from Posts 1-4 has won since 2010. But on the other, this gives the Gun Runner colt a ground-saving path to the winner’s circle—provided he can stay out of trouble.
Sierra Leone possesses the most lethal finishing kick in the field, one he employed in 3D living color to blow past three of his Derby rivals: Just a Touch, Epic Ride and Dornoch, and win the Grade 1 Blue Grass at Keeneland. He is 3-for-4, with only a nose loss to Dornoch in December’s Grade 2 Remsen at Aqueduct spoiling the parade. One race earlier, in the Grade 2 Risen Star, Sierra Leone used that kick to dismiss fellow Derby rivals Track Phantom, Catching Freedom, Resilience and Honor Marie by anywhere from a half-length (Track Phantom) to 6 ¼ (Honor Marie).
Speaking of Catching Freedom, the Louisiana Derby winner comes in with three wins in five starts, showing the same win-every-other-start form as Fierceness. However, even in his third in the Risen Star and an earlier fourth in a Churchill Downs allowance, Catching Freedom improved his Beyer each time. As illustrated by his two solid performances in nine-furlong or nine-furlong plus preps, distance isn’t an issue for this Constitution colt, who has the talented Flavien Prat in the irons.
Forever Fascinating
The X factor among favorites is Forever Young (10-1), the latest Japanese import to take aim at the concept that Japanese horses and UAE Derby ex-pats can’t win the Derby. A UAE Derby winner hasn’t finished in the top-five at Churchill Downs, but Forever Young is unbeaten in five starts—on five different tracks. He has the stalking style and tactical speed that usually serves Derby contenders well. Also serving Forever Young well is trainer Yoshito Yahagi, who conditioned Marche Lorraine (Distaff) and Loves Only You (Filly and Mare Sprint) to victory in the 2021 Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar.
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Pulling off the big Derby scores that give you bragging rights for eternity means picking the right longshots to fill out the bottom of your tickets. There are two, with a possible third to stack on your tickets: Honor Marie (20-1) and Stronghold (20-1). Honor Marie gets the choice Post 7, a spot that has hit the Derby board more than 20% of the time. Honor Marie’s exacta finishes include finishing a length behind Catching Freedom in the Louisiana Derby. It also includes finding the exacta in all three of his Churchill Downs jaunts (1-2-0).
The Santa Anita Derby winner, where he dispatched Bob Baffert’s 4-5 favorite Imagination with a clutch stretch drive, Stronghold is one of the guttiest colts in the field who has never finished out of the exacta. A stalking threat who will likely stalk post neighbor Fierceness out of his Post 18 gate, Stronghold makes only his third start since December. All six of the Ghostzapper colt’s starts (3-3-0) have come on different tracks and he broke his maiden at Churchill Downs last October.
There is a 40 percent chance of rain for Saturday. Should the skies open, you should open your tickets to Mystik Dan (20-1). His victory in February’s Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn came in the Arkansas slop, which stands out against his mediocre efforts on fast tracks. There are also concerns the Goldencents colt doesn’t have 1 ¼ miles in his tank. But he could be worth spots on the bottom of trifecta and superfecta tickets if we get a wet Derby.
