March Madness May Be Over but April Madness Has Just Begun

As March Madness concludes in April with the 2024 NCAA tournament Final Four, let’s talk about several bets for the semi-finals.

Alabama Vs. UConn

Let’s start with the 4^th seed Alabama Crimson Tide (24-11, 13-5 Conference) +11.5, O/U 160.5 (Caesars Sportsbook) versus the top seed Connecticut Huskies (35-3, 18-2 Conference). The public LOVES UConn, which is why the spread is so large, and will probably increase as we get closer to the game itself. It’s tempting to bet against that many points, but let’s be careful.

I think you could make the argument that this team is one of the best we’ve seen in a very long time. They have dominated every team they have faced, including against the Illinois Fighting Illini, the No. 1 offense in college basketball. But the Illinois couldn’t do anything against UConn in the second half even after they made adjustments.

Still, you just can’t ignore the amount of public money on UConn. Eventually, the public is going to lose betting on them to destroy teams. Or will they? Let’s hold your bets until late in the process and monitor line movement and money percentage up until game day.

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North Carolina State Vs. Purdue

If there’s a Cinderella left in this field, it’s the 11^th seed North Carolina State. Everyone remembers the historic run the Wolfpack made in 1983 confounding all the experts to sweep to a two-point win over heavily favored Houston in the finale. And who can forget coach Jim Valvano making that ecstatic sprint across the floor after the buzzer.

But this year’s opponent in the semi-finals is the Purdue Boilermakers, another top-ranked squad. North Carolina State is a 9.5-point underdog with an O/U of 146.5 (BetMGM). And the reason it’s only nine is that many people didn’t like Purdue coming into this March Madness, even as a No. 1 seed, and that’s due to their history of choking in this tournament. Everyone still has last season’s terrible loss to No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson Knights fresh in their mind and has been betting against Purdue each game.

But some have taken the exact opposite strategy, betting on them every game so far, and it has really paid off. They have been a covering machine, also winning their games by a pretty good margin. Tennessee had them on the ropes in the first half of that game, but Purdue stormed back and covered against the Vols as well.

Zach Edey won’t be an NBA player, and he isn’t fun to watch, but he dominates the college game with his length and height. Purdue relies heavily on him drawing fouls, which he does all the time and gets opponents in foul trouble. Even the great DJ Burns Jr. doesn’t come close to Edey in terms of height, and if Burns gets into foul trouble trying to defend him, that could spell doom for the Wolfpack.

But once again, let’s not make our serious bets until we see which way the point spread and the money goes.

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Prop Bets, Baby

Like the Super Bowl, the NCAA Final Four has lots of interesting prop bets.

First-Half Wagers are always an interesting bet. The Final Four is usually a nerve-wracking time for the players who could take a while to settle down. So the first half total might be lower as a result and that would especially be true for NC State and Purdue. One wasn’t expected to be here and the other is trying to live down the last year’s first round loss, so they might play tight. But is 68.5 a good number? It’s less that half the predicted total for the entire game, so might make a good bet.

How about scoring by individual players? Alabama has been a scoring machine led by Mark Sears, who averaged 21.5 points per game during the regular season. His O/U for this game is 19.5. Might be a good flyer, but UConn is a great defensive team.

Or how about DJ Burns Jr., the Mack truck of NC State. He averaged 12.5 ppg in the regular season but dropped in a season high 29 points in the upset of Duke in the Elite 8. His O/U of 14.5 (Over +100 Under -135) reeks of opportunity. But facing Zach Edey he might drop back to normal.

First player to reach 4 points? Edey at +110 and Burns at +400.

And one last bet for Alabama-UConn, will there be 8 or more points scored in the first 2 minutes? Yes, +120, No -155. Yes would be a thrill for sure.