Yes, that United Football League seems to be getting some traction in sports books, but there really is nothing like the National Football League. And the NFL Draft is always highly anticipated and the thousands of mock drafts leading up to the real one mean nothing.
This year, there’s little doubt who will go Number 1—or 2 or 3, for that matter. As usual quarterbacks rule, and this year is no exception. USC’s Caleb Williams in the consensus top pick. The kid can do it all and threw for over 10,000 yards in his college career. And since the team in the top position, the Chicago Bears, traded their top QB, Justin Fields, to the Pittsburgh Steelers months ago, it’s no doubt that Williams goes to the Bears. It’s such a lock that it isn’t worth laying anything against the -10,000 odds.
From there, the next two teams are also in need of a quarterback. The Washington football team (What’s their name this year?) has its pick of either LSU’s Jayden Daniels (-1000), North Carolina’s Drake Maye (+600) or national champion Michigan’s JJ McCarthy (+1100).
So the big names will go early and then settle in for a long slog. But instead of focusing on individual players, the draft board is very interesting in what positions go first. Does a team go for offense or defense? Every team has needs on both sides of the ball, but which way will they go?
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1st Round Props: Offense vs. Defense
Prop bets on the first round are quite interesting. Let’s start with that question. How many offensive players will go off the board in round one? There are some great QBs, as we mentioned above, but it’s also a deep draft with skilled receivers. Lots of teams want to go offense in round one because it excites the fan base. Yes, you need some defensive studs, but fans want offense. So the bet on how many offensive players will go in the first round is interesting at 20.5.
But remember not all offensive players are playmakers. Offensive linemen are very valuable. If you can’t protect your quarterback, it doesn’t matter how good he is if he’s always running for his life. So Over 20.5 makes sense but be prepared to lay -200 on that bet.
Position Props
How about the individual positions? The Over/Under for QBs is 4.5 in the first round. But that comes with a hefty price at -400. Along with the three QBs mentioned above, you have to think that players like the University of Washington’s Michael Pennix Jr. or Oregon’s Bo Nix will be grabbed before the 32nd pick is in. So maybe it’s worth a few bucks.
Another interesting pick would be the Over/Under on defensive lineman picked in the first round. This is probably the least sexy pick and because there are only a few standout defensive linemen a bet on the Under 6.5 makes sense. But again, it’s expensive at -250.
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Receivers & Running Backs
This draft is packed with great wide receivers. Starting with Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr., the son of the great Colts legend, there are at least half a dozen more studs in this draft. But lots of teams pencil in that need for rounds two or three, so go with the Under 6.5 wide receivers laying the -300.
The running back position has been so devalued that it’s unlikely that there will be anyone from that position selected in round one, so you might have to wait a round or two for the first running back selected. But there are some talented runners out there, namely Jonathan Brooks ( -120), Trey Benson (+300). Blake Corum (+500) and Marshawn Lloyd (+900). While Brooks is favored, he suffered a devastating injury in November with an ACL tear, so the bet on Benson to be the first running back selection isn’t so crazy.
Either way, the draft will influence the odds for teams that might have been doormats last year, but will have exciting new talent injected into their roster. That’s why the draft is so important.
