2021 Memorial: Best Bets & Longshots

This week, we shift our sights to the 2021 Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Ohio. Jon Rahm, the defending champ, comes into the event as the favorite at +1100, and here are our favorite outright bets.

The course, which runs at approximately 7,500 yards for a par 72, has gone through some big renovations since we last saw action here in 2020. Couple that with the fact that the field is absolutely stacked with elite names, and this will be a fun event for fans and gamblers.

This week I’m targeting guys with solid all-around games, so I’m looking for good Strokes Gained: Total, Strokes Gained: Approach, and Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green metrics. I also looked for Strokes Gained: Total at Jack Nicklaus courses as another filter. You have to be good with your irons on Nicklaus courses.

Wagering on golf always seems to come down to the wire, which is why I’ve become hooked. When it comes to my betting picks, nothing groundbreaking here. Aside from digging into the data at the RickRunGood.com database and a couple of other models, I try to look for guys that have had past success at the particular course, value plays, and players that are trending in the right direction coming into an event.

Okay, the 2021 Memorial is upon us. Let’s dig in and find some winners!

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Best Outright Bets

Bryson DeChambeau +1800

Bryson won here in 2018, and if the course plays out like I’ve read, I see the renovations helping him this week. In his last four times at this tournament, he’s made the cut three times. His skillset translates well here.

Metrics-wise, DeChambeau (l.) pops off the charts. He’s first in Driving Distance, Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and Strokes Gained: Total. He’s second in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, 37th in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green, 46th in Strokes Gained: Approach, and 47th in Strokes Gained: Putting. But DeChambeau been in a little funk, which is why we’re getting great value on him at this number. He’ll rise to the occasion.

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Longshots

In this section, I’m looking for guys that have 20-1 or longer odds. If any of them are in the running come Sunday, I will live bet and hedge for a little pizza money to make sure I come out on top.

Louis Oosthuizen +2000

He’s coming off of a 2nd place finish at the PGA Championship and has three top-8 finishes over his last six starts. He also hasn’t missed a cut in 2021! Oosthuizen (l.) leads the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Putting, ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Total, and 9th in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green. At 20-1, I can’t resist.

Charley Hoffman +4500

Hoffman’s playing the best golf of his career, so we’re getting some value at this number. He finished 3rd last weekend and now has six top-20 finishes in a row. Hoffman’s run can be credited to his great iron play, which is big this week. Overall, he ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 8th in Strokes Gained: Total.

Emiliano Grillo +5000

Grillo finished eight last week and really played better and better as the weekend went on. He has seven top-25 finishes in 2021. He’s 35th in Strokes Gained: Total and 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach. His iron play should keep him in the mix, so at 50-1, he’s worth the sprinkle.

Jason Day +7000

Complete sleeper bet here, hence the odds. Day is a member at this course, but that hasn’t paid off in the past, with just two Top 20 finishes in his past nine starts. I still like Day’s “home field advantage” here to give him a little leg up on his competition. The renovations will be new to the majority of this field, but Day should already be familiar with the changes and undulations.

Day’s strength is Off-the-Tee and Around-the-Green. If he can keep that up and his familiarity with the Greens can help him gain strokes, he should be in the mix come the weekend. At 70-1, he’s definitely worth throwing some pizza money on.

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The 2021 Memorial Tournament

Dates: Thursday, June 3 through Sunday, June 6
Course: Muirfield Village Golf Club, Dublin, Ohio
Watch: Golf Channel / CBS

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