In the first of our Gridiron Guide bowl previews, we dodge the transfer portal that is turning bowl season upside down and hopscotch from Myrtle Beach to Shreveport to Las Vegas.
Fasten your seat belts. We’re going to Myrtle Beach.
Yes, the Guide is leaving his golf clubs at home for that epic Myrtle Beach Bowl, starring the Ohio Bobcats and Georgia Southern Eagles. Because even the Grand Strand takes a back seat to MAC vs. Sun Belt games featuring, well, not featuring, a host of transfer portal refugees.
Welcome to Bowl Season, where the words “opt-out” and “transfer portal” turn handicapping games into an endless patchwork of guesswork. Who’s playing? Also, ho’s opting out? Who’s entering the portal?
This is the first of the Guide’s attempts to make wagering sense of it all, starting where it all begins this bowl season—Myrtle Beach.
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A Line Flip Out of the Gate
Say hello to the first bowl of the 2023 Bowl Season—the Myrtle Beach Bowl. And say “goodbye” to the few players in this game you may have heard of. Those would be Ohio’s starting quarterback Kurtis Rourke, leading rusher Sieh Bangura, second-leading rusher O’Shaan Allison, starting wide receiver Miles Cross and second-leading tackler Keye Thompson—all of whom entered the transfer portal.
This deprives the Bobcats of Rourke’s 2,207 yards and 11 TDs, Bangura’s 811 yards and seven TDs and Cross’ 47 catches, 617 yards and five TDs. Rourke, Bangura and Allison were responsible for all 14 of Ohio’s rushing TDs.
With backup QB C.J. Harris out for the season since September, say “hello” to third-stringer Parker Navarro and his 10 passes this season. That explains why this line opened Ohio -2.5 and flipped six points—to Georgia Southern -3.5. This would be a good time to point out that Georgia Southern, coached by former USC boss Clay Helton, has been bowl-eligible since October 26—when the Eagles were 6-2.
It would be a better time to point out Georgia Southern hasn’t won since, losing four conference games and surrendering an average of 39.5 points per game in that span. That’s an average of 29.6 points in all games. Given all this, we would have been tempted to say “hello” to a wager on Ohio, but factoring in all the AWOL players and the fact Ohio faces weaker teams in the MAC than Georgia Southern does in the Sun Belt, we’ll open our bowl account with an improbable favorite.
Best Bet: Georgia Southern -3.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Watch: Saturday, 11 a.m. ET, ESPN or fuboTV
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Maybe You Recognize Some of These Guys?
The last time these two met in a bowl, it was 2004. It was one of those Holiday Bowls that featured a plethora of points and an equal lack of defense. That edition was brought to you by the immortal Sonny Cumbie and the Texas Tech Red Raiders foiling Aaron Rodgers and the Cal Golden Bears, 45-31. Now, we fast-forward 19 years and move from San Diego to Shreveport, LA and the Independence Bowl and bring you Texas Tech’s Behren Morton vs. Cal’s Fernando Mendoza as the architects of each team’s offense.
You’d have to give the edge to Morton and the Red Raiders, who face a Golden Bears’ defense that won’t burnish head coach Justin Wilcox’s normally gilt-edged defensive resume. Four Pac-12 teams rang up 50 or more points on Cal, with two others cracking 34. The Golden Bears feature the fourth-worst passing defense in the country at 283.3 yards per game. They were 113th in scoring defense, allowing 32.7 points per game.
Texas Tech hopes to add to those numbers through Morton (1,498 yards, 12 TDs), RB Tahj Brooks (1,443 yards, nine TDs) and a solid offensive line. The reason the Guide is writing about Cal is because the Golden Bears—behind one-time third-stringer Mendoza and RB Jayden Ott (1,260 yards, 11 TDs)—won their last three games to become bowl-eligible. Mendoza is the X-factor here and Cal’s chances rest on the freshman again being able to rise to the occasion. Unfortunately for the Golden Bears, Rodgers isn’t walking through the door anytime soon.
Best Bet: Texas Tech -2.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Watch: Saturday, 9:15 p.m. ET, ESPN or fuboTV
Help Wanted: Can You Play Quarterback?
If you ask Utah Utes Coach Kyle Whittingham nice enough, perhaps he’ll let you play quarterback in the Las Vegas Bowl. It’s not like he has a choice, considering Bryson Barnes, Nate Johnson, and Mack Howard all entered the transfer portal and Cam Rising—the ostensible reason that trio is exiting stage everywhere—is redshirting. Joining that trio in the portal is Devaugh Dele, Utah’s leading receiver.
So you’re ready to pile on a Northwestern Wildcats team that is 3-0 in their last three games as underdogs and 7-3 ATS in its last 10? That Northwestern tied for second (5-4) in the Big Ten West illustrates the weakness of that division. And this is the time we mention that Northwestern’s QB Ben Bryant hit the portal. Even if Bryant was active, he’d be facing a Utah defense that held eight of its 12 opponents to 21 or fewer points.
The line for this opened Utah -9.5. It’s down to the Utes -6.5 as money has cascaded on Northwestern. But we like Utah’s 17th-ranked defense (308.6 yards per game allowed) to find itself and the Wildcats’ 24th-ranked pass defense to seal the vault on the other end. This means only one logical outcome, regardless of which portal-ravaged offense you like.
Best Bet: Under-42 (-110 at Caesars)
Watch: Saturday, December 23, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC or fuboTV
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