The 2025 NBA Playoffs are now down to the final eight teams heading into the conference semifinals. In the Eastern Conference, the top four seeds are still alive. In the Western Conference, the #2 Houston Rockets and #3 Los Angeles Lakers were ambushed by the #7 Golden State Warriors and #6 Minnesota Timberwolves in the first round.
At the start of conference semifinals, the Oklahoma City Thunder were the consensus favorite to win the NBA championship at +135 odds, according to BetMGM. The defending champion Boston Celtics are second on the board at +195 odds. The rest of the field includes the Cleveland Cavs (+600), Minnesota Timberwolves (+1600), Golden State Warriors (+2000), Indiana Pacers (+350), Denver Nuggets (+3500), and New York Knicks (+6000).
Before the playoffs began, the Celtics and Thunder were the consensus favorites to win their respective conferences. At the start of the second round, the Celtics -155 were odds to repeat as Eastern Conference champions, and the Thunder were -220 odds to win the Western Conference.
Boston Celtics (2) vs. New York Knicks (3)
Series Opening Odds: Celtics -800/ Knicks +550
Why the Celtics Win: The Celtics are the superior squad, with a deeper bench, and they’re the team to beat in the East. They swept the Knicks in the regular season and won all four games. Jayson Tatum (31.3 ppg) and Jaylen Brown (23.0 ppg) are still the best one-two punch among the final eight teams.
Case for the Knicks: The Knicks hope that Tatum’s sore wrist bothers him this series. The injury-prone Kristaps Porzingis was healthy in the first round, but the fragile “Unicorn” missed the second half of Game 1. Jalen Brunson (31.1 ppg) continues to carry the Knicks in the playoffs, but Karl-Anthony Towns (18.9 ppg, 10.4 rebounds) has been inconsistent. OG Anunoby (19.0), known for his defensive prowess, has emerged as a reliable scoring option and surprised the Celtics with 29 points in Game 1. Brunson will always get his points, but the Knicks need more offense out of KAT if they expect to compete in this series.
Better Coach: Tom Thibodeau has much more experience than Joe Mazzulla, but Mazzulla won a championship in his second season as a head coach. The Knicks played great defense in Game 1, but the Celtics live and die by the 3-point shot. They missed 45 treys in the series opener, which they probably won’t do again, but it’s one of the reasons why they dropped Game 1 in overtime. But blowing two 20-point leads was historic, and Mazzulla has to take responsibility.
Pauly’s Pick: Celtics in seven. It pains me to write this as a Knicks fan—even with New York winning the first two games—but the Celtics are the superior squad.
Cleveland Cavs (1) vs. Indiana Pacers (4)
Series Opening Odds: Cavs -425 / Pacers +330
Why the Cavs Win: The Cavs have a stronger starting five, an intimidating interior defense, and a deeper bench anchored by a pair of Sixth Man of the Year candidates in Ty Jerome and De’Andre Hunter. Donovan Mitchell (26.2 ppg) has been on a tear in the playoffs, especially with Darius Garland nursing a toe injury.
Case for the Pacers: The Pacers went 3-1 against the Cavs in the regular season. They took advantage of Darius Garland’s absence and struck first blood to win the first two games. Without Garland, the Cavs struggled to keep up with the Pacers’ frenzied pace. Usually, that’s what the Cavs do to their opposition, but the Pacers gave them a taste of their own medicine. Tyrese Haliburton stepped up in the playoffs since he was voted “most overrated player” in a poll by his peers. He led the Pacers with 22 points and dished 13 assists in Game 1.
Better Coach: Rick Carlisle from the Pacers has an edge over Kenny Atkinson from the Cavs. Carlisle led the Dallas Mavs to a championship in 2011. He’s well-respected as a late-game tactician. Atkinson won the 2025 NBA Coach of the Year award in his first season with the Cavs with a high-pace offense that relies on transition buckets and a barrage of 3-pointers. Carlisle outcoached Atkinson in the Game 1 upset with an aggressive offensive approach, and they controlled the flow of the game from the opening tip. We’ll see if Atkinson makes any in-series adjustments to get the Cavs back on track.
Pauly’s Pick: Cavs in seven. If Garland was healthy, this could’ve been over in five games. After an easy opening round, the Cavs dropped the first two games due to injuries, but they’ll bounce back and get the job done.
Oklahoma City Thunder (1) vs. Denver Nuggets (4)
Series Opening Odds: Thunder -700 / Nuggets +500
Why the Thunder Win: The Thunder were picked off in the 2024 conference semifinals due to lack of experience. They began this year’s postseason with a much better mental mindset and swept the Grizzlies in the first round. The Thunder will rely on their dynamic duo of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (28.8 ppg) and Jalen Williams (21.3 ppg) to outgun the Nuggets. Chet Holmgren averaged 18.5 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 2.8 blocks in just 29.0 minutes per game in the first round.
Case for the Nuggets: The Nuggets edged out the Clippers in an exhilarating seven-game series in the first round. The battle-tested Nuggets surprised the Thunder to steal Game 1 with a fourth-quarter rally, but woke up the monster in the Thunder and got pummeled by 34 in Game 2. The Nuggets can seize total control of the series if they can also win Game 3 on their home court in Denver before the Thunder adjusts to the thin air of Colorado. Nikola Jokic played like an MVP with 44 points and 22 rebounds in Game 1. He averaged a triple-double in the opening round with 24.0 points, 11.6 rebounds, and 10.1 assists per game. Jamal Murray exploded for 43 points against the Clippers in Game 5 of the opening round, and that’s the best he’s looked in the playoffs since the Nuggets won their championship two seasons ago.
Better Coach: Former NBA Coach of the Year Mark Daigneault from the Thunder has more experience than David Adelman. The Nugs cleaned house in the final week of the season when they fired head coach Michael Malone and their general manager. Adelman, a long-time assistant coach with the Nuggets, was promoted to interim head coach.
Pauly’s Pick: Thunder in seven. SGA and Jokic will clash in an epic battle of the top two MVP candidates. The Thunder have a better squad and deeper bench with a rotation of nine guys, but they were not tested in the first round. The Nuggets will not go down without a fight, which is why this has the potential to go the full seven games.
Minnesota Timberwolves (6) vs. Golden State Warriors (7)
Series Opening Odds: Timberwolves -175 / Warriors +150
Why the T-Wolves Win: Minnesota has its own superhero with Anthony “Ant Man” Edwards (26.8 ppg). He led the Timberwolves to a first-round series upset over LeBron James and Luka Doncic. He’s clearly not intimidated by big stars, so now he’ll get a chance to bury Steph Curry, Draymond Green, and Jimmy Butler in the same series. Julius Randle (22.6 ppg) shot nearly 40 percent from 3-point range in the opening round. Jaden McDaniels stepped up too and increased his scoring output to 17.4 ppg in the playoffs (up from 12.2 ppg in the regular season).
Case for the Warriors: The Warriors were 3-1 against the Timberwolves in the regular season. Anything is possible when you have a healthy Steph Curry, Draymond Green, and Jimmy Butler. The Bay Area’s new holy trinity led the #7 Warriors to a first-round upset over the #2 Rockets thanks to clutch Game 7 heroics. Buddy Heild also played out of his mind in Game 7 with 33 points after posting a disappointing doughnut in Game 6 with zero points. Curry tweaked his hamstring in a Game 1 victory, and he’s out at least a week.
Better Coach: Chris Finch has a stronger squad with the Timberwolves, but he has yet to even reach the NBA Finals as a head coach. Steve Kerr has more wisdom, experience, and has won four championships as a head coach (including five more as a player). We’ll see if Kerr can press the right buttons with his rotations after Curry went down.
Pauly’s Pick: Timberwolves in seven. With Curry out for a couple of games, the Warriors are extremely vulnerable. Ant Man is at the peak of his powers right now, while the Warriors’ big three are in the twilight of their careers.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
