The NBA All-Star Game and trade deadline passed, and the second half of the season is underway. Instead of placing separate futures bets on the Finals and conference champions, consider a single “Guess the NBA Finals” prop bet. It’s ideal for smaller bankrolls or bettors who don’t want funds tied up in long-term futures.
The defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder (42-14) remain the team to beat at +130 odds, according to BetMGM. If you expect them to win back-to-back championships, then this NBA Finals matchup prop bet helps you extract additional value than a traditional futures wager.
The Eastern Conference is wide open once again. The Indiana Pacers surprised everyone last year when they punched their ticket to the 2025 NBA Finals as a #4 seed.
If you believe a mid-seed from the Eastern Conference can dethrone the Thunder, then this Guess the Finals prop bet offers a juicy payout. The Cleveland Cavs (24-21) and New York Knicks (35-20) sit somewhere between +1300 and +1400 odds to win the title. The Cavs to knock off the Thunder in the NBA Finals pays out +3000. Predicting the Knicks to pull off an upset against the defending champs is priced at +4500.
Let’s look at some of the possible outcomes:
Thunder Defeat Cavs +800
This is now the most popular prop bet on the board at +800 odds after the Cavs acquired James Harden at the trade deadline. There’s a bit of drama and intrigue because Harden began his career with the Thunder as the third-overall pick in the 2009 NBA Draft.
Thunder Defeat Knicks +850
The Knicks hit the skids after they won the NBA Cup in mid-December and looked awful during a 6-17 stretch. They bounced back and headed into the All-Star Break with a 10-2 surge.
If bettors are overvaluing Harden’s impact in Cleveland, then the Knicks become the logical choice from the East. Alas, trying to keep up with the Thunder’s offense is another challenge completely because the Knicks lack a consistent third scoring option.
Thunder Defeat Pistons +900
Call this the Chalk Finals featuring the projected #1 seeds. The Thunder and Detroit Pistons are the only teams with at least 40 wins by the All-Star Break. The Thunder own the best record in the NBA, while the Pistons (40-13) lead the East by 5.5 games
Nuggets Defeat Cavs +2000
The Denver Nuggets sit at +450 odds to win the title as the second choice on the futures board behind the Thunder. Their bench is much deeper than the squad that won the 2023 NBA title, and has helped them survive injuries to starters like Nikola Jokic, Aaron Gordon, and Christian Braun.
A Nuggets-Cavs finals would revive one of the most electrifying duels in recent playoff history. During the 2020 postseason, Jamal Murray and Donovan ‘Spida’ Mitchell were combatants in an epic first-round duel when Mitchell played for the Utah Jazz. Murray scored 36 points in an overtime thriller to tip off the series, while Mitchell erupted for a career-high 57 points in the loss. The first game set the tone for the back-and-forth seven-game series, and the pair combined for 475 points. The Nuggets ultimately advanced. A rematch in the NBA Finals would be must-see TV.
Nuggets Defeat Knicks +2000
If the NBA playoffs tipped off right now, Nuggets vs. Knicks would feature a battle of both #3 seeds. If you love dynamic duos, this NBA Finals matchup would showcase Jokic/Murray vs. Brunson/Towns.
Cavs Defeat Thunder +3000
The Cavs were already the highest-scoring team in the East (120.0 ppg) and second in the NBA before adding Harden. Now they have another elite scorer and playmaker. If Cleveland reaches the Finals, it will likely need to outgun the Thunder to thwart OKC’s bid for back-to-back titles.
Knicks Defeat Thunder +3500
The Knicks ran out of gas in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals because Tom Thibodeau overused his starters and did not have faith in the younger players on his bench. That’s the primary reason the Knicks replaced Thibodeau in the offseason.
Head coach Mike Brown took the opposite approach this season. He relies on his bench to keep his stars fresh for the postseason. The Knicks also added point guard Jose Alavarado at the trade deadline. Alvarado provides veteran leadership and much-needed perimeter defense. He could be the Knicks’ secret weapon against the Thunder.
Pistons Defeat Thunder +3500
The Pistons are one of the NBA’s elite defensive teams, which is why they’re at the top of the Eastern Conference standings. They also embraced the throwback mentality of the Bad Boys era from the late 1980s with a “take no guff” attitude.
The Thunder’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has benefited from generous whistles over the last two seasons. Critics would say the zebras have been overly favorable despite his penchant for flopping. If officials let Detroit play physically, the Pistons could disrupt SGA’s rhythm and manhandle Chet Holmgren.
Cavs Defeat Nuggets +4500
Spida Revenge? Mitchell has been waiting six years to avenge an early playoff exit against Murray and the Nuggets. Like a classic superhero arc, Mitchell can’t wait for a second chance to defeat his nemesis.
Knicks Defeat Nuggets +5500
The Knicks have not won a championship in over 50 years. If the Knicks raise a banner in front of a star-studded crowd at Madison Square Garden, it’s likely it won’t be against the Thunder. The Knicks will be a problematic matchup for the Nuggets if those two teams meet in the NBA Finals.
Spurs Defeat Knicks +6500
The enigmatic Victor Wembanyama carries global appeal, while the Knicks represent the largest media market in North America. ABC executives would love this matchup because ratings for the NBA Finals have steadily declined since the Golden State Warriors defeated the Celtics in 2022. Last year’s matchup between two small-market teams (Thunder vs. Pacers) drew the least-watched NBA Finals this century.
Knicks Defeat Spurs +10000
Wemby at MSG? Scalpers might retire after this series. Spurs-Knicks in the NBA Finals would be the hottest ticket in Gotham and likely the priciest NBA Finals seat that the secondary market has ever seen.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
