After the NBA All Star Break, it’s time to focus on the hardwood as the season resumes and 5 Bets is going to focus on that sport this week. The shift from the NFL is seamless if you like basketball.
The advantage of wagering on hoops is that there is a collegiate or professional game every day. Secondly, there is always a matchup where a team has a clear advantage over an opponent.
In the NBA, the Houston Rockets, San Antonio Spurs, and the Detroit Pistons have won 42 games combined this season. The Boston Celtics have won 42 games and have 23 games to play. If they are going against the Rockets, Spurs, or Pistons that is a match up that the Celtics should have an 80% or higher win probability.
The third wagering option I find value in is the player prop market. The selection of an NBA player to exceed or fall short of his projected total for a game. Take a look at the player’s last five games and compare it to the number. If he has exceeded it at a rate of 60% or more, then take him Over.
Look at his home versus away performances for the season and which one falls under the wagering total. Use that as a barometer to take the player Under. Go with players that average double-digit attempts when making your choices. The more shots taken increase the chances of the player going Over in points. I will share more tips in the near future but let’s look at five bets that we should make this week.
5 Bets to Make this Week
- Dallas Mavericks -13.5 over San Antonio Spurs
- Joel Embid Over 30 points vs. Memphis Grizzlies
- LA Lakers-Golden State Warriors Over 238 total
- Toronto Raptors-New Orleans Pelicans Over 226.5 total
- Jalen Brunson Over 26 points against Washington Wizards
Mavericks Force at Home
The Dallas Mavericks face the San Antonio Spurs on Thursday in Dallas. The Mavericks are 19-10 at home. The Spurs are 5-24 on the road. The Spurs have lost 14 straight games. The Mavericks won the last meeting 126-125 in San Antonio with Luka Doncic scoring 51 points.
The addition of Kyrie Irving should make this game easier. Dallas normally allows opponents 112.5 points per game. The Spurs normally score 112.5. San Antonio will give up the same number of points as the first meeting but not score as much. Take the Mavericks to win the game. The Mavs are favored by 13.5 points.
Prediction: Mavericks -13.5 points over Spurs (-110 at BetMGM)
Watch: Thursday, 8:30 ET, Bally Sports South West or FuboTV
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Embiid Routs Grizzlies
The Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid and company take on the Memphis Grizzlies on Thursday in Philadelphia. In the first match up this season, Embiid recorded 35 points and 11 rebounds.
Embiid has averaged 16.4 against the Grizzlies during his career. Embiid has scored 29 or more points in four of his last five games prior to the All-Star break. Memphis Center Steven Adams is out with a PCL sprain so Embiid should score over 32.5 points.
Prediction: Embiid Over 32.5 points (-115 at Bet365)
Watch: Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET, TNT or FuboTV
Expect Shoot Out at Lakers-Warriors
The Los Angeles Lakers host the Golden State Warriors on Thursday. The Warriors are 7-22 on the road. The Warriors won the first meeting this season by a score of 123-109.
The Lakers won the second meeting on February 11 by a score of 109-103. Lebron James did not play in that game. The Warriors shot 27.4% 3-pointers that night and took 44 from distance. They should shoot a higher percentage while taking the same number of attempts.
The Warriors are allowing opponents 118.5 points per game. The Lakers allow opponents 118.2. Both teams play at a fast tempo and are not strong defensively. The total for the game is 238.5. Take the Over.
Prediction: Lakers-Warriors Over 238.5 (-105 at Golden Nugget)
Watch: Thursday, 10 p.m. ET, TNT or FuboTV
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Toronto-New Orleans to Hit the Over
The Toronto Raptors host the New Orleans Pelicans on Thursday. In the Raptors last three games, the combined total has exceeded 236. The Pelicans allow opponents 113.5 points per game. The total is set at 226. If the high scoring trend of Toronto continues, this should be an easy Over, The price is -108.
Prediction: Raptors-Pelicans Over 226.5 points (-108 at BetRivers)
Watch: Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET, Bally Sports South or FuboTV
Brunson Performs Wizardry Over Washington 
The New York Knicks’ Jalen Brunson goes up against the Washington Wizards on Friday in Washington. Brunson has scored 25 or more points in his last five games. He averaged 18 shot attempts per game. Brunson scored 34 against the Wizards on January 13.Take him over any projected total points of 26 or higher.
Prediction: Brunson Over 26 points
Watch: Friday, 7 p.m. ET, MSG or FuboTV
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