5 Smart Bets for the U.S Open With Scheffler Domination

Wagering on the U.S. Open is one of the trickier golf bets of the year. Yet, it comes with certain predictive factors. Here, we look at those—and the golfers who check (or don’t check) those boxes.

The last time they played a U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2, Martin Kaymer ran away and hid. His 9-under-par score beat Rickie Fowler and Erik Compton by eight. Those three were the only players finishing under par.

Since winning his second major 10 years ago, Kaymer has been basically invisible. But Pinehurst No. 2 remains quite visible as one of the truest tests in golf. It will play to 7,543 yards and par-70, with three par-4s north of 500 yards and four others clocking in at least 470 yards.

That customary length in a U.S. Open aside, there are certain key statistical factors that portend success at Pinehurst No. 2. Golf Channel’s Brandel Chamblee pointed out that the previous three U.S. Open winners at Pinehurst (Payne Stewart, 1999; Michael Campbell, 2005; and Kaymer in 2014) all finished in the top 10 in driving accuracy, scrambling and total putts.

To this, we add Strokes Gained: Approach. That’s because, along with Scrambling, second shots are key at Pinehurst No. 2. That’s due to the course’s prime defense: the “turtleback greens.” Picture an inverted saucer and you’ve got the image of iconic course designer Donald Ross’ greens. Hitting the ball in the right spot on these greens—and keeping the ball on the green—is paramount to scoring.

 


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With that in account to varying degrees, here are three golfers we like and two sleeper selections.

Three To Play

Scottie Scheffler (+320): Yes, this comes with a heavy dose of chalk. It’s an unfortunate byproduct when you’re talking about the best ball-striker in the world, the No. 1-ranked golfer in the Official World Golf Rankings, the winner of five tournaments this year—including the Masters, the Players Championship and the just-concluded Memorial—and a player in total command of all facets of the game. Scheffler is the first golfer since Arnold Palmer in 1962 to come into a U.S. Open with five victories, including a major. And in between becoming a father for the first time last month, Scheffler has finished inside the top 10 in 12 of 13 events.

Why isn’t this hard to fathom? Scheffler leads the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Total, Strokes Gained: Approach, Greens in Regulation and birdies per round (5.22), where the tour average is 3.77. Yes, that’s how much he’s lapping the field. To that, you can add Scheffler’s fourth in Scrambling—that key Pinehurst No. 2 stat—and 14th in Strokes Gained Around the Green.

He’s the biggest U.S. Open favorite since Tiger Woods was +200 going into the 2009 event. With all that, the only thing hard to fathom is how Scheffler hasn’t won one of these already.

Collin Morikawa (+1400): The question here: Are we going to see the Collin Morikawa who carpe diemed himself to two majors before he turned 25? Or are we going to see the Collin Morikawa of late who has played to contend—and not to win?

Whatever Morikawa we’re talking about comes into this major with some major cred. He’s the only player in the field with top-five finishes in both majors (T3 at the Masters; T4 at the PGA Championship). His past three U.S. Open finishes were 14th, fifth and fourth. And he has six top-10s this season—five coming since April.

Either version of Morikawa brings plenty of reason for optimism. He leads the PGA Tour in driving accuracy, hitting nearly 78 percent of his fairways. His 51st in Strokes Gained: Approach is the result of a poor start to the season; Morikawa remains one of the best iron players in the world, as attested by his 11th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green. What the UC Berkeley product needs to do is improve with the putter (96th in Strokes Gained: Putting) and relocate that final-round gear that puts him over the top.

 


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Bryson DeChambeau (+1800): Yes, it’s easy to forget about DeChambeau when he plays on golf’s version of the Witness Protection Program—better known as LIV Golf. But you do so at your betting peril when you zoom in on what the 2020 U.S. Open champion has done this year.

When DeChambeau has emerged from LIV Golf, he’s done so with a flourish. He’s one of four golfers who own top-10 finishes in the two previous majors, joining Scheffler, Morikawa and Xander Schauffele in that elite club. We’re talking about a guy who shot 20-under at the PGA—and finished second to Schauffele. DeChambeau’s ridiculous length; he leads LIV Golf averaging nearly 321 yards per drive, and power iron game (72.45 percent greens in regulation, which is second in LIV) immediately stamps him a contender this week.


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And Two Sleepers We Like

Tommy Fleetwood (+3500): Yeah, we know by heart what follows Fleetwood’s name when it comes up regarding a major—never won a PGA Tour event or an event in America, for that matter. But Fleetwood’s name always comes up here because Fleetwood’s game puts it there. It’s frankly a matter of time before he wins on American soil and a matter of time before the pieces of his considerable game fall into place in a major.

Why not here? The last five U.S. Open champions (Gary Woodland, DeChambeau, Jon Rahm, Matt Fitzpatrick and Wyndham Clark) have been first-time major winners. Meanwhile, Fleetwood ranks third in driving accuracy and 10th in scrambling. He’s finished in the top 10 in three of his last four majors—including a third at the Masters—and has three top-five finishes in U.S. Opens. Twice, Fleetwood has posted final-round 63s, including last year.

 


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Keegan Bradley (+7500): Here’s your potential value pick of the year. When the U.S. Open was at Pinehurst 10 years ago, Bradley shot 69 or better in three of the four rounds for one of his two top-10 U.S. Open finishes.

You may not have heard much from Bradley lately, but he’s one of eight golfers to own top-25 finishes in both majors. He’s 12th on the PGA Tour in Total Driving and Bradley’s once-balky putter has shown signs of life this year; he’s gained strokes on the greens in four consecutive starts. The 2011 PGA Championship winner came out of the clouds to win that major. He could very well do the same this year.

 

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February 5, 2012 — The Giants rally past the Patriots 21-17 in Super Bowl XLVI. It's a rematch of Super Bowl XLII four years earlier where the Giants upset the Patriots 14-10, ending New England's hopes for a perfect 19-0 season. In 2012, trailing 17-15, New York has the ball on their own 12-yard line with 3:46 remaining. Eli Manning connects with Mario Manningham for a 38-yard completion. The Giants advance to the New England six-yard line where Ahmad Bradshaw scores with 57 seconds left.

On This Day In Sports History

February 3, 2002 — The Patriots win the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history by beating the heavily favored St. Louis Rams 20-17. The New England quarterback is second year pro Tom Brady. The Patriots win on a 48-yard field goal by Adam Vinatieri as time expires.​