It’s a new year on the calendar, and that coincides with the new year on the PGA Tour. The Sentry Tournament of Champions will take place at the Plantation Course Kapalua on Maui, which typically isn’t the first tournament of the schedule but does traditionally take place during the winter months due to the warm climate.
In line with that, the weather is projected to be a consistently pleasant 75 degrees throughout the weekend. The two complications could be rain on Friday and some gusty conditions, though the wind isn’t projected to be overly impactful.
The tournament will be broadcast by the Golf Channel and NBC, as well as fuboTV. Friday, Golf Channel has the coverage from 6-10 p.m. ET. Saturday and Sunday, NBC shows the tournament from 4-6 p.m. ET. Golf Channel then has highlights and reruns of the day from 6-8 p.m.
The field at the Sentry Tournament of Champions will get a forgiving course to start on, as it features wide fairways and large greens. Putting is the biggest challenge. Kapalua measures out at 7,956 yards and is a par 73. The relative ease of the course has been reflected in the winning scores of the tournament in recent years.
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Low Scores Routine in Maui
Those scores include Jon Rahm (-27) in 2023, Cameron Smith (-34) in 2022, and Harris English (-25) in 2021. There should be a strong chance for drama on Sunday, however, as each of the last five events were decided by two strokes or less. That includes two playoff finishes.
Those stats lead us to one of the “Specials” available on the Tipico Sportsbook, which is the question of whether there will be a playoff to decide the winner. We can’t say “Yes” (+340) is necessarily a best bet, but it’s an intriguing longshot to consider given the recent history of The Sentry.
Shifting the attention from the course to the format of the tournament, the field will consist of 59 golfers. That includes star names such as Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, Max Homa, Colin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele, and Patrick Cantlay. With no cut at this event, the entire field will play through to Sunday.
Scheffler Favorite to Win
Scheffler (+500), Hovland (+800), Morikawa (+1100), Homa (+1400), Cantlay (+1400), Aaberg Ludvig (+1400), and Schauffele (+1500) are the six favorites based on the current odds found on Tipico. Of that group, only Schauffele has won this event in the past, which came in 2019. He also finished tied for second in the 2020 edition. He tacked on a 12th-place finish for good measure one year later. In other words, he has a strong history at the course. There’s not a ton of value on him finishing inside the top 20 (-200), but there is more available for top 10 (+140) or five (+280) finishes.
Both Scheffler and Hovland are likely to be the top favorites in all tournaments for the foreseeable future, and perhaps all of 2024. Scheffler was particularly dominant in 2023. He won only two events during the 2023 season (Players Championship and Waste Management Phoenix Open). He finished inside the top 10 a whopping 17 times with an average score of 68.6. The downside is his relative lack of value (+117 top-five finish, -160 top-ten finish). He finished seventh in the event last year.
Morikawa Could be the Value Play
Hovland won the FedEx Championship in 2023 and had an overall track record nearly in line with that of Scheffler. On top of his three wins, he also had nine top 10 finishes and an average round score of 69.1. His history at The Sentry is the hold up, though he has improved year over year (T31, T30, T18). The issue emerges in terms of value. He has only slightly longer odds than that of Scheffler (+185 top five, -116 top ten).
Of the group, Morikawa could be the play. He finished runner up in 2023, fifth in 2022, seventh in 2021, and seventh in 2020. In contrast to the two favorites mentioned above, he’s a great alternative (+245 top five, +130 top ten).
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Mid-Tier and Longshot Options
We have a couple players who performed well in their debut at Kapalua last year. Kim Joo-Hyung (+2000) and Matt Fitzpatrick (+2500) are good mid-tier options. Kim finished tied for fifth last year but led the field in strokes gained: tee-to-green. Fitzpatrick finished seventh and is widely considered one of the better putters on the tour (11th in strokes gained last year).
Sung-Jae Im (+3000) was consistently in the hunt last season. He had 19 top 25 finishes and nine top 10s in 31 events but didn’t get a win. Because of that, he doesn’t have the same name value to casual fans, but his record at Kapalua is impeccable. He’s finished fifth, eighth, and 13th in the last three years and could finally break through for the win to begin 2024. A top 10 finish makes sense (+220) and is a nice value relative to others with a similar track record at the course.
Looking at the published material out there previewing the new season, Cameron Davis (+6000) is a popular player to emerge as a true star. He ended last year with seven top 15 finishes in his last nine events, and has a top 10 finish on his resume at this event from 2022. If his season goes as expected, he won’t be sitting at that value for many more tournaments, and he offers excellent value inside both the top five (+850), ten (+420), and even 20 (+140). Now is the time to buy low on his stock.
(logo/link) At Tipico Sportsbook Colorado and New Jersey customers can deposit $100 or more of real money on their first deposit to receive up to $500 in protected bets!
