The NBA trade deadline passed without the Milwaukee Bucks dealing Giannis ‘Greek Freak’ Antetokounmpo or the Memphis Grizzlies moving on from Ja Morant. Instead, the Cleveland Cavs made the biggest splash when they acquired James Harden from the Los Angeles Clippers.
The surprise trade instantly impacted the futures market. According to BetMGM, the Cavs jumped from +2500 odds to +1200 to win the 2026 NBA championship. The Cavs are now the third favorite overall .
The defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder are still the consensus favorite to win back-to-back championships at +130 odds. The Denver Nuggets are second on the board at +425.
Thunder: Dinged-Up SGA (+130)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sustained an abdominal strain, and the cautious Thunder will keep him out through the All-Star Break. After an eye-popping 24-1 start, the Thunder looked mortal with a 16-12 stretch over their next 28 games. Still, the Thunder are the team to beat. With a deep bench and a strong starting five, they’re a formidable opponent even with the league’s reigning MVP out of the lineup.
Nuggets: Joker Returns (+425)
The Nuggets caught a major break when Nikola Jokic avoided a serious injury at the end of December. He missed 16 games with a hyperextended left knee and returned to the hardwood in late January. After easing back into the lineup, Jokic resumed his usual workload. Jokic averages a triple-double this season with 28.9 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 10.7 assists per game. If the playoffs began today, the Nuggets would earn the #3 seed in the Western Conference. Yet, oddsmakers listed them as the second title favorite on the board at +425.
Cavs: The Spida and Harden Show (+1200)
In his ninth NBA season, and fourth with the Cavs, Donovan ‘Spida’ Mitchell averages a career-high 28.9 ppg. Adding Harden provides the Cavs with another elite playmaker and proven scorer.
Harden averaged 25.4 points and 8.1 assists per game in 44 starts for the Clippers this season. After a terrible start, the Clippers caught fire and went 16-4 with their eyes on the playoffs. That’s why the trade to Cleveland was an utter shock. Harden was happy to play in his hometown and never requested a trade, but the Los Angeles Clippers made a financial decision. With no intention of extending Harden’s contract, they traded him for a chance to rebuild.
Harden’s defense remains a liability, but Cleveland can absorb it with a stout frontcourt anchored by Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. The Cavs also quietly upgraded their bench by adding veteran point guard Dennis Schroder before the deadline, a move overshadowed by the Harden trade.
The futures market immediately reflected Harden’s impact. The Clippers sat in the top 10 at the end of January, but their title odds cratered from +7000 to +60000 after trading Harden and center Ivica Zubac. Meanwhile, the Cavs saw their championship odds slashed in half, dropping from +2500 to +1200.
Knicks: Back on Track (+1300)
After winning the NBA Cup in Las Vegas, the New York Knicks went into a tailspin. They bottomed out with a 2–9 stretch in the weeks that followed. Injuries played a role, but the team also seemed distracted by nonstop trade rumors involving the Greek Freak and Karl-Anthony Towns. A players-only meeting finally stopped the bleeding, and the Knicks snapped out of their funk by winning eight games in a row.
The second half of the season now shapes up as a three-team race for the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference. The Detroit Pistons have emerged as a thorn in the Knicks’ side, while serious questions linger after the Cavs added Harden.
To their credit, the Knicks avoided reckless moves at the trade deadline. They didn’t overpay for the Greek Freak, much to the relief of the fan base. They traded little-used Guerschon Yabusele and later added veteran guard Jose Alvarado. A New York City native and local hoops legend, Alvarado once tallied a rare quadruple-double in a high school game.
Celtics: Playing Great Without Tatum (+1500)
The Boston Celtics sit fourth in the Eastern Conference, a stunning development with Jayson Tatum sidelined by a torn Achilles tendon. They’re on track to clear their preseason win total of 41.5 shortly after the All-Star Break, fueled by a monster season from Jaylen Brown.
Boston prioritized financial flexibility at the trade deadline. They moved Chris Boucher, Josh Minott, and Xavier Tillman to slip under the luxury tax. They also traded Anfernee Simons to strengthen the bench with center Nikola Vucevic. Tatum has insisted he’ll return before the end of the season, but the real question is whether the Celtics resist the temptation to rush their superstar back.
Spurs: Don’t Sleep on Wemby (+1600)
The San Antonio Spurs offer the best value on the futures board at +1600 odds to win the title. Despite their lack of postseason experience, the young Spurs have figured out a way to beat the Thunder. They went 4-1 in their first five meetings this season, including the NBA Cup semifinals in Las Vegas. In his third season, Victor Wembanyama leads the Spurs with 23.9 points, 11.1 rebounds, and 2.7 blocks per game. He’s the betting favorite to win the Defensive Player of the Year.
Pistons: Defensive Renaissance in the Big D (+1800)
The Detroit Pistons sit atop the Eastern Conference behind the NBA’s third-best defense, allowing just 109.7 ppg. Led by Cade Cunningham, the Pistons recently ambushed the red-hot Knicks and halted an eight-game winning streak. The Pistons’ stifling defense held the Knicks to 80 points in a 38-point rout. Detroit is now 2–0 against New York this season, winning both matchups by at least 31 points. It’s also payback after the Knicks eliminated the Pistons from the playoffs last year. The Pistons/Knicks is a budding rivalry that you cannot overlook.
Rockets: Standing Pat at the Deadline (+2200)
Kevin Durant isn’t getting any younger, and the Houston Rockets know their championship window is narrow. Still, they were silent at the trade deadline because of financial constraints. Fred VanVleet suffered a season-ending knee injury before the preseason began, yet Houston couldn’t land a veteran point guard because they were hard-capped at the first apron. Instead of chasing upgrades like Coby White or Ayo Dosunmu, the Rockets stood pat and put their faith in Amen Thompson and Reed Sheppard.
Houston remains the fourth-best team in a stacked Western Conference, which explains why they sit at +2200 to win the title.
Lakers: Hollywood Drama (+3300)
Even on a slow news day, the Los Angeles Lakers dominate headlines. LeBron James and team owner Jeanie Buss are locked in a cold war, though both sides have publicly denied any rift following an ESPN report detailing simmering tension. All signs point to this being LeBron’s last season in gold and purple. That raises the question: will he go out on top, or with a whimper?
Rather than addressing their porous defense at the trade deadline, the Lakers added sharpshooter Luke Kennard instead of a veteran stopper.
Warriors: Swapping Kuminga for a Unicorn (+1000)
The Golden State Warriors are still reeling after they lost Jimmy Butler with a torn ACL, but they finally moved disgruntled Jonathan Kuminga in a deal for Kristaps ‘Unicorn’ Porzingis. If Porzingis can stay healthy through the playoffs, Golden State becomes a difficult matchup in the postseason.
Despite a swirl of trade-deadline rumors, the Warriors never landed the Greek Freak and ultimately held onto Draymond Green, quieting speculation that his tenure in the Bay Area was ending. Meanwhile, Pat Spencer has emerged as a fan favorite after the former lacrosse standout went viral with his infectious play.
Hornets: Buzz City (+20000)
There’s no chance the Charlotte Hornets win the NBA championship this season, but they’ve become must-see TV as the most fun team to watch. The Hornets were 11–23 at the end of 2025, before a remarkable January surge. They went on a 14-5 run, including a nine-game winning streak heading into the Super Bowl.
The upstart Hornets are currently in the play-in mix. A healthy LaMelo Ball headlines an exhilarating starting five that includes leading scorer Brandon Miller, rookie Kon Knueppel, Miles Bridges, and Moussa Diabate.
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