Yes, it’s tempting, especially given what happened to Coach Prime and the Primettes against the Oregon Ducks last week. But we’re not going to bite on the USC Trojans coming into Boulder, CO. and facing the Colorado Buffaloes. Not even with the Buffs coming off a reality-check 42-6 dismembering at the hands of Oregon.
We’ll let USC QB Caleb Williams be Caleb Williams, Colorado’s Shedur Sanders be Shedur Sanders and let these two entertain us without having to sweat out a 22.5-point spread or a stratospheric 73.5-point total.
The Guide will, however, save its popcorn for two other Pac-12 games. Because not only are we getting entertainment from what is the best conference in college football this year, we’re finding our value and opportunity along the way.
Last week: 2-1. Season: 6-7
These Huskies Bite Hard
Two weeks ago, we figured giving 16.5 points on the road against a future Big 10 opponent was too much of a matzah ball to bite off. The Washington Huskies not only bit off that matzah ball, but returned to the table for more in a 38-0 poleaxing of the Michigan State Spartans. This week they face the Arizona Wildcats.
The moral of that story is lesson quite learned. This Washington team is not only the best team in the Pac-12, but at No. 7, is ranked lower than it should be, because if you had any Big 10 or SEC team averaging nearly 600 yards of offense, scoring at least 41 points a game, averaging nearly 50 points a game, and winning every game by at least 27 points, ESPN, Fox Sports and every college football pundit worth their betting models would camp out in the quad and never leave.
QB Michael Penix Jr. is now your Heisman Trophy favorite, his odds roaming anywhere from +225 to +380. Two weeks ago, he was +850. You get the idea as easily as Penix gets the yards, of which he’s averaging 409 a game through the air. And you get the idea as easily as his elite legion of receivers get the ball. The Huskies have three receivers: Rome Odunze (27-544-4), Ja’Lynn Polk (21-427-4) and Jalen McMillian (20-311-3) with at least 20 receptions. Washington is 3-0-1 ATS this season and even with an Arizona team that is allowing only 16 points a game at home and is improved defensively, has way too many weapons for the Wildcats to deal with. Arizona barely edged a Stanford team considered the Pac-12’s worst as 13.5-point favorites (21-20). This is too big a matzah ball for the Wildcats.
Best bet: Washington -17.5 over Arizona (-110 at BetMGM)
Watch: Saturday, 10 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network or fuboTV
Spread? We Don’t Need No Stinkin’ Spread
After what Oregon did to Colorado last week, this has trap game written all over it, especially with the Ducks laying 27 points to the Stanford Cardinal.
Giving points in bunches hasn’t fazed Oregon in the least this year, as we’ve seen through its 4-0 ATS record. But that barely scratches the surface. The Ducks have covered every game despite spreads ranging from 4.5 (Texas Tech) to 48 (Portland State).
The Ducks rank second behind USC in scoring offense, averaging 54 points a game. Oregon QB Bo Nix has elbowed his way into the national Heisman discussion as ruthlessly as the Ducks have elbowed aside opponents. He’s currently sitting fourth in odds ranging from +1000 to +1200, about where you’d expect to find a passer completing nearly 80% of his throws for 1,169 yards and 11 TDs to one interception.
Stanford averages 15 points a game, about what Nix and Co. average in less than a quarter. The Cardinal are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 and even putting aside their one-point loss to Arizona, are not remotely in Oregon’s galaxy. Your only worry here is getting this line that opened at Oregon -26 before it ticks up further.
Best bet: Oregon -27 over Stanford (-110 at Caesars).
Watch: Saturday, 6:30 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network or fuboTV
Is Kansas Ready for its Close-Up?
Do not adjust your eyes, call the optometrist or assume we’re talking hoops. Yes, you read right. The Kansas Jayhawks are not only 4-0, but ranked 24th in the country. That gets the Jayhawks a date with the No. 3 Texas Longhorns, where—courtesy of the Longhorns’ migration to the SEC in 2024—the two will meet as Big 12 opponents for the last time. Appropriate, since they’re meeting as ranked teams for the first time. Kansas is running over teams, averaging 217.8 yards a game on the ground (12th in FBS), which doesn’t mean the Jayhawks are one-dimensional. QB Jalen Daniels accounted for 184 yards and three TDs in last week’s 38-27 victory over the BYU Cougars.
Kansas averages nearly 38 points a game on offense, scoring no fewer than 31 points in any game. None of this means the Jayhawks ignore defense either, scoring a TD last week on a pick-six and another one on a fumble recovery. Waiting for the Jayhawks is a Texas team nearly as prolific on offense.
The Longhorns haven’t scored fewer than 31 either, averaging 35 points a game, with Baylor the latest pelt joining the mantle. That came courtesy of a 38-6 beat-down. Texas is 8-2 over the Jayhawks in its last 10, including last year’s 55-14 pummeling. But we still don’t trust the Longhorns to cover the 16.5-points with their 5-5 ATS record in their last 10. What we do trust after putting all the numbers in the mixmaster is a juicy Over. Kansas is 7-2-1 to the Over in its last 10 and these two are 5-2 to the Over in their last seven head-to-head. No need to adjust your eyes.
Best Bet: Over-62.5 (-110 at Caesars)
Watch: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC or fuboTV
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