There’s not enough space to chronicle the myriad of ways Conference Championship Week can inflict chaos on the already chaotic world that is the College Football Playoff. Four teams come into this final week of the season unbeaten and nobody would be surprised if four teams don’t come out of it unblemished.
Two of those: the Washington Huskies catching 10 points against the Oregon Ducks, and the Florida State Seminoles favored against the Louisville Cardinals, provide the value and opportunity the Gridiron Guide loves. However, just like the decisions awaiting the CFP Committee after Saturday, the Guide must decide where the best value lies.
Spoiler alert: chaos takes a holiday here.
Last week: 2-1. Season: 22-15.
FSU Holds Off Louisville
All it takes to unleash some late College Football Playoff chaos is for the Louisville Cardinals to pull off the upset of one of the last four Power Five undefeated teams. With Florida State Seminoles backup QB Tate Rodemaker at the controls, the Guide is saying there’s a chance. Rodemaker has completed only 52% of his passes. Against the Florida Gators last week, he was 12-of-25 for 134 yards, no TDs and three sacks. But Rodemaker’s best stat was “zero,” as in “zero interceptions.” He managed the game like a virtuoso, converting two key third downs, then checking off to Trey Benson’s 26-yard TD run that sealed the Seminoles’ victory.
If Rodemaker continues his Leonard Bernstein-esque virtuosity, FSU is virtually unbeatable, because the Seminoles don’t beat themselves and because their defense beats you to a fruit, juicy pulp. FSU turned the ball over only five times this year—the fewest in the nation. Meanwhile, the Seminoles allow only 16.8 points per game—tops in the ACC and 11th nationally. Where the Cardinals have a chance is on the ground, where FSU’s 140 yards per game allowed is the worst of the top 20 defenses by total yards allowed. Only 19 teams have allowed more rushes of 30 yards or more than the Seminoles’ 10 and Louisville rolls out the ACC’s top rushing duo of Jawhar Jordan (1,067 yards, 13 TDs) and Isaac Guerendo (639-8). Still, while the Guide loves chaos and while the Guide is 3-0 backing Louisville this year, it’s time to embrace order and flip the script.
Best Bet: Florida State -3.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Watch: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, ABC or fuboTV
Fireworks Continue for Boise State
The Guide does not recommend the Boise State Broncos’ path to the Mountain West Conference title game. It’s generally not advisable to fire your head coach with two games remaining in the season, including a tough finale against the Air Force Academy Falcons, and expect to play for a conference title. But here we are—minus former coach Andy Avalos, who was relieved of his duties.
Enter defensive coordinator/interim coach Spencer Danielson, who guided Boise State to victories over Utah State and Air Force. That put the Broncos in the title game. When you look at the 7-5 Broncos and their balanced offense, it does make sense they’re here. Behind running back Ashton Jeanty (1,113 yards, 13 TDs), Boise State is 11th in the country in rushing (207 ypg). Jeanty also has 37 catches for another 537 yards and five TDs. The Broncos average 14.3 yards per reception, which is 15th in the nation.
Led by WR Eric McAlister (47-873-5), their receivers are averaging nearly 16 yards per catch. That too, is 15th nationally. The UNLV Rebels, meanwhile, backed into the MWC title game allowing 5.91 yards per play, 14 yards per reception, tied for eighth-worse among FBS defenses, and 16.2 to receivers (fourth worst). But when the resurgent Rebels have the ball, they’re dangerous. QB Jayden Malava (2,648 yards, 14 TDs) guides an offense averaging 35 points a game. Boise State has won the last five head-to-head and haven’t lost to the Rebels since 1977. Even though Boise State is 1-3-1 ATS in that span, we recommend you fire off a bet on the Broncos.
Best Bet: Boise State -2 (-110 at Caesars)
Watch: Saturday, 3 p.m. ET, FOX or fuboTV
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Mustangs Ride Off With the Upset
After beating USC in last year’s Cotton Bowl, allowing only 14 points per game the last month and unleashing QB Michael Pratt—the best QB you’ve never heard of—this is pretty much where we expected to find the Tulane Green Wave: back in the American Athletic Conference title game. The Green Wave haven’t lost a game since falling to the Ole Miss Rebels on September 9 and might have won that game if Pratt was healthy. That deprived Tulane of a QB who would amass 2,168 yards and 21 TDs to only four interceptions. We didn’t expect to find the SMU Mustangs waiting for them this time of the year.
But the Mustangs are just about as incendiary right now. They are riding an eight-game winning streak behind the fifth-best offense (41.8 ppg) and 13th-best scoring defense (17.7 ppg). SMU broke the 40-point mark in five games this season and even without QB Preston Stone (3,197 yards, 28 TDs) and his broken leg, the Mustangs are in capable hands behind backup Kevin Jennings, a standout offensive line and three RBs averaging more than 5.2 yards per carry (Jaylan Knighton, L.J. Johnson and Camar Wheaton).
That line and that trio should take the pressure off Jennings and allow SMU’s superior defense to finally solve—or at least shorten the leash—of Pratt. When these two met last year, Tulane broke a seven-game series losing streak with a 59-24 thrashing. While it may be tempting to dive into the Over with these high-octane offenses, Tulane is 2-10 to the Under this year and thunderstorms are possible. We like the ACC-bound Mustangs in an upset anyway.
Best Bet: SMU +4 (-110 at BetMGM)
Watch: Saturday, 3 p.m. ET, ABC or fuboTV
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