Some weeks, the Gridiron Guide is hard-pressed to find those value-meets-opportunity games that send you racing to the window faster than a Pac-12 scoreboard operator’s fingers.
This is not one of those weeks. The Guide found numerous opportunities that didn’t make the cut. One was the Cal Golden Bears (-6.5) over blood rival Stanford Cardinal in The Game. Another was the Georgia Bulldogs (-10.5) at the Tennessee Volunteers. Also, the Navy Midshipmen (-2.5) against the East Carolina Pirates and the Maryland Terrapins team total Under-15.5 against the Michigan Wolverines. Those are all games that would make the cut in most other weeks.
That we’re aboard Georgia’s bandwagon a week after shorting them to much mirth on your part—and embarrassment on the Guide’s part—is mere coincidence.
Last week: 1-2. Season 18-13.
These Cardinals Show Betting Virtue
While you were paying attention to the Pac-12 aerial escapades, Michigan’s shenanigans and the inevitable close-up on the SEC, the Louisville Cardinals were quietly going 9-1, with Notre Dame’s and Duke’s pelts on the mantle. They were doing it in a veritable plethora of ways and means. They were winning games scoring 13 points (North Carolina State Wolfpack) and winning games scoring 56 points (Boston College Eagles).
The Cardinals average 32.7 points a game, allow only 17.1 points per game (T-12) and could lock up a spot in the ACC Championship Game with a victory here. That a Jeff Brohm-coached team is a defensive juggernaut raises eyebrows, but the numbers put those eyebrows back down: Louisville is ninth in rushing yards (3.0 per carry), 10th in completion percentage (54.5%) and 16th in yards allowed (300). Now, send in a Miami Hurricanes team that lost QB Emory Williams for the season in last week’s bitter loss to the Florida State Seminoles. They have six wins and really doesn’t have much to play for anymore. With one-time starter Tyler Van Dyke back under center, the Hurricanes aren’t exactly inspiring confidence, momentum or attention. This game barely had our curiosity. Now, because of that juicy spread and Louisville’s momentum, it has our attention.
Best Bet: Louisville -1 (-110 at Caesars)
Watch: Saturday, Noon ET, ABC or fuboTV
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Save Your Energy—They Are
The Iowa Hawkeyes have become synonymous with the Under. Their last five games have featured totals of 38.5, 34, 30.5, 32 and last week’s 27.5. And the Hawkeyes have found that Under each week, including last week’s 22-0 blanking of Rutgers.
This is what you’d expect from a team that is 130th and last in the nation in total offense (243 yards per game), 130th and last in passing offense (122 ypg), 120th in points (18.8 ppg) and 124th in third-down efficiency (30%). QB Deacon Hill comes into this game with a 14.0 QBR. In seven Big Ten games, Iowa went Under six times. Of course, here’s where the Guide is mandated to point out Iowa’s defense is among the nation’s best. The Hawkeyes are third in points allowed (12.3 ppg), eighth in total yards allowed (281.5) and 10th in passing yards allowed (168.8).
The Illinois Fighting Illini, meanwhile, haven’t exactly broken out the calculators either. They’re 91st in rushing offense (134.5), 91st in third-down efficiency (36.1%) and 101st in points against (29.3). Here’s where the Guide is mandated to mention Illinois has gone over in its last three games: victories over Indiana and Minnesota and a loss to Wisconsin. None of those feature a defense that will be confused with Iowa’s defense, just like none of us will be confused that this game will feature anything resembling offensive fireworks. Or a reason to watch anything but the Under.
Best Bet: Under-30.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Watch: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, FOX Sports 1 or fuboTV
Longhorns Hooked on Escapes
Let’s take a look at the Texas Longhorns and their recent high-wire act. Their last month featured a three-point win over TCU. Also included was a three-point win over Kansas State and a seven-point victory over Houston—as 23.5-point favorites.
They’ve won their last two Big 12 road games by a combined 10 points. The 9-1 Longhorns are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five and 4-5-1 in their last 10. Now, let’s take a look at Texas’ recent 3D House O’ Horrors history in Ames, where the Longhorns haven’t won since 2017. This includes a 30-7 waxing in 2021 and a 23-21 victory in 2019. It also includes the fact the Longhorns haven’t covered since 2018 and are 3-7 ATS against the Iowa State Cyclones since 2013. Like Louisville, Iowa State has blissfully sailed under the radar this season, going 4-1 in its last five games and scoring at least 20 points in its last seven.
The Cyclones beat their last four opponents by an average of more than 19 points a game and—while Texas QB Quinn Ewers (2,234 yards, 15 TDs) and WR Xavier Worthy (59-757-4) pose a legitimate threat to burning down that Ames house O’ horrors, Iowa State features an under-the-radar defense to go with its under-the-radar persona. The Cyclones allow only 204 yards per game through the air. All of this translates into a high-wire act that is wobbling enough to blow this cover.
Best Bet: Iowa State +7.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Watch: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, FOX or fuboTV
