FC Austin, St. Louis City, LAFC-Dallas to Score This Week in MLS 3 Bets

There’s a great variety of ways you can take advantage of value opportunities in Major League Soccer with teams up and down the ladder. And this is the perfect time of year to grab those opportunities.

We’ve discussed repeatedly here in Three Bets the value opportunities that permeate MLS. Even during the driest spell on the sports wagering calendar, savvy bettors can find tasty opportunities to tide them over.

And one of the beauties of betting MLS is those opportunities present themselves up and down the standings. Here, we explore three games featuring teams ranging from fifth place to 29th and last, each offering value and opportunity on multiple fronts.

Meet Them in St. Louis

Here’s an example of the old computer code WYSIWYG—what you see is what you get. And what you get here is an ascendant St. Louis City FC team that is tied for the fifth-best record in MLS with 32 points. They also have the second-best goal differential in the league at +13. St. Louis is tied with defending MLS champion LAFC for the Western Conference lead with those 32 points.

St. Louis City has cooled a bit since its incandescent start, snapping a four-game winless streak with last week’s 2-1 victory over the San Jose Earthquakes. The two goals came from the just-promoted Samuel Adeniran. He’s the latest hero in what has been a conga line of heroes for St. Louis City and the latest example of how it’s enduring the injuries of striker João Klauss and midfielder Eduard Löwen. Both designated players are out until late July with quad injuries.

As for the Colorado Rapids, what you get is the worst team in MLS, one scoring two goals in their last six games, a symptom of an anemic offense that put a league-worst 14 goals in the net in 19 games. According to FootyStats, they are 167% worse than St. Louis FC in goals-scored (2.4-0.9) and 80% worse in goals-conceded (1-1.8). What puts this game on the radar is the utter value you get in such a mismatch. And what we see is what we get in terms of value.

Prediction: St. Louis City FC over Colorado (-112 at BetRivers)

Watch: Saturday, 8:30 p.m. ET, Apple TV of fuboTV

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LAFC Options Aplenty

Somehow, LA Football Club—one of Three Bets most reliable go-tos—allowed a Vancouver Whitecaps team that couldn’t find the net on the road with a GPS to score three times last week. For a team tied for the Western Conference lead at 32 points, LAFC’s treading-water recent form (3-3-2) makes you wonder what Steve Cherundolo’s crew will do next. The immediate goal? Not give up soft goals on outnumbered attacks, which plagued LAFC against the Whitecaps and forced it to waste Dènis Bouanga’s 12th goal of the season.

FC Dallas, meanwhile, hasn’t scored in three games, or since beating St. Louis City FC, 2-0 on June 7. That encompasses a 1-0 loss to the Portland Timbers and a 3-0 loss to intrastate rival Austin FC in a game where FC Dallas missed eight starters: six due to injury, one yellow-card accumulation suspension, and leading scorer Jesus Ferreira (10 goals) joining the USMNT for the CONCACAF Gold Cup.

You could grab LAFC’s excellent 5-2-2 record in its last nine vs. FC Dallas at a juicy +140. Or you could take FC Dallas’ excellent recent form (5-2-2) and 25% edge in both goals-scored and goals-allowed vs. LAFC at an even tastier +180. But we’re looking at the fact that in seven of the last nine games between these two, they have each found the back of the net. That’s a 78% rate of Both Teams To Score. That’s a reliable go-to here.

Prediction: Both Teams To Score (-135 at Caesars)

Watch: Saturday, 8:30 p.m. ET, Apple TV of fuboTV

Miami’s Offense Is In A Vice

What could possibly go right when you pit mid-table Austin FC (25 points/18th) against bottom-feeding Inter Miami CF (15 points/27th)? Well, Austin FC did blank the Houston Dynamos, 3-0, for its second consecutive 3-0 clean-sheeting of a Texas rival. This, however, needs to come with a Texas-sized grain of salt, considering Austin FC is away from its cozy, sell-out magnet home. That means you get Austin FC’s recent road form (1-1-3), which leaves much to be desired. You also get a team that is 51% weaker on the road in points-per-game (1.33-.88) than Inter Miami is at home, a team 33% worse in goals scored (1.33-1) and a team 60% worse in goals conceded (1.33-2.13) than its opponent.

On the bright side, you don’t get an Inter Miami team that is winless in its last five, with an Eastern Conference co-worst 17 goals. All that said, here’s another game with a wary line. You could take a flier on Inter Miami and its pathetic form and get +150 for your audacity. Or you could dive into the Over-2.5 goals at -125, secure in the knowledge that all six of Austin’s last half-dozen games went over that total and four of Inter Miami’s did the same. Oh, and the two sailed over that total in their last meeting: a 5-1 Austin bludgeoning. Which brings us to why we like Austin FC to make it all right.

Prediction: Austin FC over Inter Miami CF (+155 at Bet365)

Watch: Saturday, 8:30 p.m. ET, Apple TV of fuboTV

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On This Day In Sports History

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