With the 2023 NFL season on the horizon, it’s a great time to gaze into the future and see which futures bets the writers at BetQL.com like. From Super Bowl odds to awards sleepers, they have found some serious values on the NFL futures markets with these picks below.
Jets Underperform in 2023
Kate Constable: Jets u9.5 wins (+115 at Caesars)
The addition of quarterback Aaron Rodgers is a massive upgrade to this New York Jets roster but that doesn’t automatically mean you should bank on New York winning 10 or more games. The Jets’ regular-season schedule is the seventh-hardest of any team and it opens the season with the hardest schedule through the first six weeks.
They’re at home against the Buffalo Bills in Week 1 before playing the Dallas Cowboys in Week 2. New York then plays the New England Patriots, Kansas City Chiefs, and Philadelphia Eagles at home, and the Denver Broncos on the road. It wouldn’t be shocking to see the Jets’ record sitting anywhere from 1-5 to 2-4 through that stretch.
The offensive line is also a bit of a concern with it ranking 24th heading into the season. The Jets have dealt with quite a few injuries on the O-line in previous seasons and its pressure rate (35.9%) is much worse than what Rodgers was used to in Green Bay. The Jets will be more competitive this year, but I don’t think they’ll win 10 games.
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Patriots Make Playoffs
Lucy Burdge: Patriots to Make the Playoffs (+275 at Unibet)
With the changes the Patriots have made this offseason – notably bringing in Bill O’Brien to replace Matt Patricia as offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach and possibly snagging wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins – I think the Patriots have a great shot to make the playoffs this season.
They failed to make the playoffs last year and lasted a quick minute in the playoffs the season before. But QB Mac Jones finally seems comfortable with the coaching structure around him and I think that will go a long way to helping this team make the playoffs even in a tough division this season.
Dolphins Win Super Bowl
Matt Horner: Miami Dolphins to win Super Bowl (+2500 at BetRivers)
We’ve already seen this number go down quite a bit from +3300 since the beginning of free agency, but it’s still a great value here. There are many things that I like about the Miami Dolphins that make me believe they can shock people this season.
First off, this is a team that had a ton of promise last season before the injuries to Tua Tagovailoa. When healthy, he made huge strides in becoming a franchise QB in 2022. With a cast of extremely talented wide receivers like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, combined with a rushing attack that comes right out of the Kyle Shanahan playbook from head coach Mike McDaniel, this offense was pumping on all cylinders.
Second, Miami has also improved the defense, which was a real problem last season, by trading for cornerback Jalen Ramsey, signing linebacker David Long Jr. and re-signing OLB Andrew Van Ginkel.
With all the attention going to Buffalo and New York in the AFC East, Miami is quietly a team that I think people should look at more seriously.
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Take Tua for MVP
Brad Pinkerton: Tua Tagovailoa to win MVP (+1600 at BetMGM)
I’ll piggy-back Matt’s pick above and take Tua for MVP. This is really a bet on the oft-injured QB staying healthy. That’s a long shot in itself, but that’s why we’re getting +1600 here. If Tag stays healthy, he’s going to put up video-game numbers in this offense again. Especially if the defense isn’t significantly better (call me skeptical on that one). And with a healthy Tagovailoa, the Dolphins will certainly have a shot at replacing Buffalo atop the AFC East — and maybe even challenging the Chiefs for AFC supremacy — which will bolster Tua’s MVP case.
As far as value goes on the preseason awards futures, I love a little sprinkle right now on Tua to take home MVP in 2023. Don’t wait too long because those odds will shrink after every week he plays.
