How Smart Bettors Are Profiting from NBA Finals: Thunder, Celtics, Cavs Analysis

The end of the NBA regular season is upon us. So what are the prospects for the top teams headed into the playoffs? Here are some tips on which team to bet and why.

The final week of the NBA regular season is here, which is the last time you can lock in a juicy futures price and pick the next NBA champion before the playoffs begin with the Play-In Tournament next week.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are the betting favorite to win the 2025 championship at +175 odds according to BetMGM. The Boston Celtics are +200 odds to win back-to-back championships. The Cleveland Cavs have the best record in the Eastern Conference, but they’re only the third favorite on the board at +500 odds.

Let’s take a look at the Top 8 contenders on BetMGM’s NBA futures board:

Oklahoma City Thunder

Championship Odds: +175

Western Conference Odds: -145

The Thunder won 57 games last season and locked up the #1 seed in the Western Conference, but they lacked playoff experience and were knocked out in the conference semifinals by the #5 Dallas Mavs.

A brutal elimination like last postseason often builds character. The Thunder entered the 2024-25 season with one goal in mind: win the championship. They surpassed last season’s record and became the first team in the Western Conference to win 60 games this year. Heading into the final week, they have the best home record in the NBA which will be a huge bonus in the playoffs.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the best player on the best team, which is why he’s the betting favorite to win the MVP. At this point, the Thunder are the team to beat. They’re the favorite to win the Western Conference at -145 odds. They’re also +175 odds to win the championship, and this is the best price you’re going to get before the playoffs begin.

The Thunder opened the season as the second championship favorite at BetMGM at +650 odds. They overtook the Celtics for the top spot on the futures board in late January, and have been the consensus title favorite since then.

Boston Celtics

Championship Odds: +200

Eastern Conference Odds: -145

The Celtics won their record-setting 18th NBA championship last season but have not won back-to-back championships since the late 1960s. The Celtics are close to securing consecutive 60-win seasons for the first time since 2009, and only the second time since the peak Larry Bird era in the mid-1980s.

The Celtics began the season as the consensus favorite to win consecutive titles at +290 odds. They were the betting favorite during the first 13 weeks of the regular season before the Thunder surged ahead of them in late January. If you follow the money, all signs point toward a Celtics and Thunder showdown in the 2025 NBA Finals.

The Celtics have the second-best record in the East behind the Cavs, but they’re the favorite to clinch the Eastern Conference at -145 odds. They seek a third trip to the NBA Finals in the last four seasons.

 


 

 


Cleveland Cavs

Championship Odds: +500

Eastern Conference Odds: +165

In his first year with the Cavs, Kenny Atkinson is a huge betting favorite to win Coach of the Year. The Cavs posted the best record in their conference this season and won 60-plus games for the first time since LeBron James’ first stint in Cleveland back in 2010.

The high-octane Cavs lead the NBA with 122.1 ppg. Their opponents will try to slow down that pace in the playoffs, and it’ll be curious to see how they adjust to tougher defenses in the postseason.

The Cavs dominated in the first half of the season before they hit a rough patch at the beginning in mid-March with a 3-5 skid. They look like they got back on track heading into the playoffs, and secured the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference.

The Celtics are the popular pick in the east, which is why the Cavs are only +165 odds to win the conference and third on the futures board to win the championship at +500 odds.

L.A. Lakers

Championship Odds: +1000

Western Conference Odds: +700

There’s a huge drop-off in odds after the Thunder, Celtics, and Cavs on the futures board. The L.A. Lakers are currently fourth at BetMGM at +1000 odds.

The Mavs foolishly traded superstar Luka Doncic to the Lakers in one of the more lopsided trades in NBA history. The Lakers were languishing and only +4500 odds to win the championship before the trade, and jumped to +1800 after the trade. The addition of Doncic revitalized LeBron James and the Lakers are now potential title contenders. Fans are thrilled at the possibility of winning one more title before James retires.

The Lakers have always been a popular team among bettors. Their fans have deep pockets and are not shy about betting their beloved Lakers to win the championship year after year, even if they have a bad squad. Their price is somewhat inflated because of Doncic fever.

Then again, Doncic led the Mavs to a conference crown and a trip to the NBA Finals last year. The Thunder were eliminated by the Mavs last year because they could not slow down Doncic, and now that he’s on the Lakers, that’s a potential matchup they’d prefer to avoid.

The Lakers were in third place in the west with four games remaining. They held a two-game edge in the loss column over a cluster of five teams who each have 32 losses but are stuck in a traffic jam in the standings.

The Lakers are the fourth on the futures board to win the championship at +1000 odds, which would tie them with the Celtics for #18 all-time. It would also mark a second title for LeBron as a member of the Lakers.

Golden State Warriors

Championship Odds: +1200

Western Conference Odds: +600

The Warriors saw their championship odds jump from +6000 before the trade deadline to +3000 at the All-Star break after they acquired Jimmy Butler from the Miami Heat. Butler carried the Heat to a pair of Eastern Conference titles and two trips to the NBA Finals since 2020. With a healthy Steph Curry, the Warriors always have a shot but Butler gives them another alpha star alongside Draymond Green.

The Warriors made six appearances in the NBA Finals during an eight-season stretch including four championships in 2015, 2017, 2018, and 2022. The dynamic duo of Curry and Green have one more opportunity to win a championship because Butler is exactly the guy they need to lead them back to the NBA Finals.

The Warriors are +600 odds to win a seventh Western Conference crown since 2015, and currently +1200 odds to the championship.

 


 

Caesars Sportsbook Review – Forbes Betting

 

 

 

 

 


Denver Nuggets

Championship Odds: +2000

Western Conference Odds: +675

It looks like Nikola Jokic will not win his fourth MVP award, even though he’s having the best season of his career averaging 20.8 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 10.2 assists per game while shooting 41.5 percent from 3-point range. He lost the MVP to Joel Embiid in 2023, but then got the ultimate revenge by winning the NBA championship. If you ask Jokic, he’s cool with SGA winning the MVP if that means the Nuggets can hoist another championship banner in Denver.

The Nuggets were the #2 seed last year, yet were thwarted by the Timberwolves in the Western Conference semifinals. They enter the final week of the regular season in fourth place. With Jokic at the peak of his powers, the Nuggets will be very dangerous in the postseason if Jamal Murray finally snaps out of his funk and Russell Westbrook avoids his “Westbrick” moniker. The Nuggets are +2000 odds to win the championship, which is their highest number all season.

New York Knicks

Championship Odds: +3500

Eastern Conference Odds: +1200

Jalen Brunson returned to the Knicks after missing a couple of weeks with an ankle injury. The third-place Knicks have a healthy squad for the first time all season, which included their best rim protector, center Mitchell Robinson, who finally returned after recovering from ankle surgery.

The banged-up Knicks pushed the Indiana Pacers to seven games in the 2024 playoffs before they were eliminated in the conference semifinals, but fans caught a glimpse of a hopeful future with Brunson at the helm. They added Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges to the starting lineup, but OG Anunoby has quickly become a favorite at Madison Square Garden for his blue-collar work ethic. The Knicks are willing to play the role of usurper in the playoffs and fans cannot wait for a potential matchup against the Celtics in the conference semifinals.

The Knicks are seventh on BetMGM‘s futures board, and you can back them at +3500 odds to win the championship. They’re third on the board at +1200 odds to win the Eastern Conference for the first time since 1999.

L.A. Clippers

Championship Odds: +5000

Western Conference Odds: +1800

If Kawhi Leonard is healthy, the L.A. Clippers can do some damage in the playoffs. They have a trio of 20-point scorers with James Harden (22.5 ppg), Norman Powell (22.0 ppg), and Leonard (21.0 ppg).

The Clippers will always play the role of the pesky little brother compared to the more popular Lakers, but Hollywood loves a compelling underdog story. This is the perfect spot for the Clippers with all the attention focusing on the Lakers and the LeBron and Luka Show. The Clippers are legit flying under the radar at +5000 odds to win the championship, and +1800 odds to win the Western Conference.

 


 

 

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History Playbook

On This Day In Sports History

April 24, 1955: The Brooklyn Dodgers lose 11-10 to the New York Giants at Ebbets Field in a game where 11 runs were scored in the 10th inning. During the ninth, Giants shortstop Al Dark tied the score 5-5 with a two-run homer. New York adds six runs in the 10th. The last of the six runs is recorded when Brooklyn’s Carl Furillo catches a fly ball in right field with one out and, believing it’s out number three, trots in while Al Dark scores from third base. The Dodgers score five runs in the bottom of the 10th but fall short by one run.

On This Day In Sports History

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