We should not overreact to one game, especially a series opener in the first round. Yet, the Oklahoma City Thunder obliterated the Memphis Grizzlies in a 51-point blowout. The Thunder were clearly the best team all season, and there’s a reason why they’re the betting favorite to win the 2025 NBA Championship. However, is there any scenario in which another team can upset the Thunder in the West?
The Thunder are the consensus favorite to win the Western Conference at -165 odds according to BetMGM. Even though the Golden State Warriors secured the #7 seed through the Play-In Tournament, they’re a close second on the board at +600 odds. Right behind them are the Los Angeles Lakers (+650), L.A. Clippers (+1000), Minnesota Timberwolves (+1700), Denver Nuggets (+2800), and Houston Rockets (+4000).
Since 2021, the #1 seed in the Western Conference failed to reach the NBA Finals on three occasions in which they were eliminated in the conference semifinals. That included the 2021 Utah Jazz, the 2022 Phoenix Suns, and the Thunder last postseason. Let’s run through a few scenarios in which the Thunder fails to reach the NBA Finals.
Three New Amigos: Warriors
Case for the Warriors: The addition of Jimmy Butler gives the Warriors a much-needed playmaker along with Steph Curry. They now have a pair of crunch-time closers for the first time since the peak of the Splash Brothers with Klay Thompson. Veterans Draymond Green, Steph Curry, and Butler are a dangerous trio who elevate any lineup of younger players (e.g. Brandin Podziemski and Moses Moody) that coach Kerr utilizes in the fourth quarter. Yet, it’s their physicality and defense that has drawn early raves in the playoffs.
Matchup vs. Thunder: The Warriors and Thunder will not have a chance to meet until the conference finals. If the Warriors knock off the #2 Houston Rockets in the first round, they’ll have to work their magic in the conference semifinals against the Lakers/Timberwolves winner before getting a shot at the Thunder. So long as Curry and Butler remain healthy, they’re a live dog to reach the NBA Finals.
The Lake Show: LeBron and Luka
Case for the Lakers: The Lakers looked awful and lacked intensity in a Game 1 loss in front of a star-studded crowd in Hollywood. It was a minor setback, and the Lakers bounced back in Game 2. Luka Doncic cooked the Timberwolves just like he did in last year’s playoffs. If the Lakers reach the second round, they have more favorable matchups against the Warriors or Rockets.
Matchup vs. Thunder: You will have to wait until the Western Conference Finals for a potential Lakers and Thunder throwdown. The Lakers were only 1-2 against the Thunder this season, but never count out the sheer willingness of LeBron James to win a playoff series. If you followed the money before the playoffs began, the Lakers vs. Thunder were the top two most popular futures bets to win the conference crown.
Ant Man and the Timberwolves
Case for the T-Wolves: A cool and confident Timberwolves knocked off the Lakers in Game 1. They looked like the same squad that reached the conference finals last year, and Anthony Edwards looked unstoppable. They struggled from 3-point range in Game 2, and the Lakers evened the series, but they secured a clutch road victory in Game 1 before the series shifts to the Twin Cities.
Matchup vs. Thunder: The Timberwolves were only 2-2 against the Thunder this season, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had some of his best single-game performances during his heads-up bout against Edwards. If Jokic and SGA are easily the top two players in the west, then Edwards is third. If any other guard in the west can go shot-for-shot against SGA, it’s Edwards. TV execs would prefer LeBron and Luka in the conference finals for ratings reasons, but hardcore basketball fans would not be disappointed with an Ant Man vs. SGA playoff rumble.
World MVP Jokic and the Nuggets
Case for the Nuggets: Whoever wins the heavyweight brawl in the first round between the Nuggets and Clippers has a chance to upset the Thunder in the conference semifinals. Game 1 was an overtime thriller, and Game 2 came down to the wire. The well-rested Thunder will probably have a cake walk through the first round, which puts the Nuggets in a position to strike early and steal a road game in OKC at the start of the second round. Plus, that first game in the thin air of Colorado is always a doozy for opposing teams. There’s a possible scenario in which the Nuggets can jump out to a 2-1 lead and seize home-court advantage.
Matchup vs. Thunder: The Nuggets were 2-2 against the Thunder this season. SGA will be tough to stop, but the Thunder will have their hands full with slowing down Nikola Jokic. If you dismiss the Nuggets’ loss to the Thunder in the season opener back in October, Jokic averaged a triple-double against them in the other three meetings with 27.3 points, 17.0 rebounds, and 11.0 assists per game.
The Other L.A. Team: Clippers Jinx?
Case for the Clippers: If the Clippers/Nuggets series winner has the best chance to pick off the Thunder, then take a closer look at the Clippers. If they fend off Jokic in the first round, they’ll be battle-hardened heading into the conference semifinals against the Thunder. James Harden has played some of his best hoops since his MVP days with the Rockets, and a healthy Kawhi Leonard brings intensity on both ends of the court.
Matchup vs. Thunder: These two squads could meet in the conference semifinals, where #1 seeds have gone to die in three out of the last four playoffs. The Clippers were 0-4 against the Thunder this year, but don’t forget that Kawhi appeared in only 37 games in the regular season, including just one game versus the Thunder. The elephant in the room is the so-called Clippers Curse. They have never reached the NBA Finals and never won a Western Conference title. Ty Lue led the Clippers to their first appearance in the conference finals in 2021, which was a huge step forward in breaking the so-called curse.
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