Here we go! The NBA tips off this week so it’s time to consider one of our favorite bets, the Over/Under win totals for the season.
The defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder began the season with the highest win total at 62.5 Over/Under according to BetMGM. Here are some thoughts on win totals for the Thunder and all 15 teams in the Western Conference:
Oklahoma City Thunder
Win Total: 62.5 O/U
Last Season Record: 68-14
Our Pick: OVER
The Thunder won 68 games last season with centers Chet Holmgren and Isiah Hartenstein both missing time with injuries. The current win total seems low for a healthy squad looking to become the first repeat champion since 2018.
Denver Nuggets
Win Total: 54.5 O/U
Last Season Record: 50-32
Our Pick: OVER
The Nuggets cleaned house at the end of last season and removed a toxic culture in the front office. With Ben Tenzer running basketball operations and Jonathan Wallace named the head of player personnel, the new front office assembled the best supporting cast of players to surround three-time MVP Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. They traded Michael Porter, Jr. for Cam Johnson and brought back Bruce Brown. They bolstered the bench with Jonas Valanciunas and Tim Hardaway, Jr. Even with a fractured locker room last season, the Nuggets still won 50 games, so winning five more seems like a layup.
Houston Rockets
Win Total: 52.5 O/U
Last Season Record: 52-30
Our Pick: UNDER
Ever since Kevin Durant left the Golden State Warriors, every team that acquired him thinks they’re an instant title contender. Yet, they fall severely short of the mark. The Brooklyn Nets became a huge title favorite when they signed Durant and Kyrie Irving. The move backfired and they traded Durant midway through the 2022-23 season. The Suns thought Durant could help them compete in a top-heavy Western Conference. Instead, they were humiliated with a first-round sweep in the 2024 playoffs and failed to qualify for the Play-In Tournament last season.
After an excellent 2024-25 season, in which the Rockets won 52 games and locked up the #2 seed, they acquired Durant in a trade with the Suns. But is Durant cursed? The Rockets incurred a bad beat before the season began when they lost Fred VanVleet to a season-ending injury. The Rockets are in a tough spot due to salary cap and apron issues, so they can’t add a veteran to fill in for VanVleet. With an inexperienced backcourt, the Rockets should fail to match last season’s win total.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Win Total: 49.5 O/U
Last Season Record: 49-33
Our Pick: UNDER
Julius Randle excels in the first season with a new team before he reverts to his old bad habits like poor shot selection and arguing with officials. Could things go sideways in Randle’s second year in the Twin Cities? Anthony Edwards has improved his stats in his first five seasons in the NBA, but will that trend continue or has he reached a ceiling? Despite back-to-back trips to the conference finals, the Timberwolves might not be a Top 5 team in the conference this season.
Los Angeles Clippers
Win Total: 48.5 O/U
Last Season Record: 50-32
Our Pick: UNDER
The Kawhi Leonard and Aspiration scandal blew up in the preseason, but Leonard’s health will always be the elephant in the room. Since the end of the pandemic, he missed 89 games over the last three years, including 45 games last season. With Leonard’s durability an issue, the Clippers added Bradley Beal to a backcourt that also includes James Harden and 40-year-old Chris Paul. They also acquired John Collins and Brook Lopez to strengthen their front line. With a lot of new faces in the mix and a couple of veterans with a history of injury issues, the Under feels like the logical play.
Los Angeles Lakers
Win Total: 47.5 O/U
Last Season Record: 50-32
Our Pick: UNDER
The Lakers won 50 games under rookie head coach JJ Redick. Yet even with the #3 seed, the Lakers failed to advance past the first round of the playoffs for a second postseason in a row. Fans and bettors have been hammering the Over in win totals, which is now at 47.5 O/Ubecause they have faith that the Lakers can win 50-plus during Luka Doncic’s first full season in L.A. A slimmed-down Doncic should dominate and dazzle fans, but LeBron James isn’t getting any younger. Although he put up impressive stats as a 40-year-old last season, it marked his lowest output since his rookie season. James only missed 23 games the last two seasons, but he’ll miss the start of this season with a back injury. That’s a major concern, which is why the Under is enticing. The Lakers had a lackluster offseason. Let’s be frank here, Deandre Ayton joined the Lakers because no other teams were interested. And if you’re super excited and hyped up about adding a role player like Jake LaRavla, who averages 6.9 points and 3.3 rebounds over his career, then you know it’s been a subpar offseason.
Golden State Warriors
Win Total: 46.5 O/U
Last Season Record: 48-34
Our Pick: OVER
There are high expectations for the “Olden State Warriors” with Jimmy Butler suiting up for his first full season in the Bay Area. He’s typically a great addition until things sour, so the Warriors must win now before Butler ruins the vibe in San Francisco. This could also be the last season that Draymond Green plays alongside Steph Curry, so this upcoming season feels like the “Last Dance” for the Warriors and head coach Steve Kerr. They avoided a holdout when they resigned Jonathan Kuminga. They also acquired Al Horford, who provides them with a solid upgrade at center.
San Antonio Spurs
Win Total: 44.5 O/U
Last Season Record: 34-48
Our Pick: OVER
After a promising debut in his rookie season, Victor Wembanyama missed almost half of his second season with a deep vein thrombosis (DVT) in his right shoulder. He’s fully recovered, and the Spurs expect this will be the year that Wemby leads them to a playoff berth. Oddsmakers set the line at 44.5, which indicates slightly better than a slightly better-than-break-even team that could be bound for the Play-In Tournament. Stephon Castle had a strong rookie season last year (14.7 points and 4.1 assists per game). Castle and backcourt mate, De’Aaron Fox, will be fun to watch. The Spurs selected Dylan Harper with the #2 overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft. The son of former NBA player Ron Harper, Dylan is a great addition to the up-and-coming Spurs.
Dallas Mavericks
Win Total: 40.5 O/U
Last Season Record: 39-43
Our Pick: UNDER
After joining the Mavericks in the shocking Luka Doncic trade, Anthony Davis suited up for only nine games last season due to an injury. The big knock against Davis is his fragile nature. Most of his tenure with the Lakers was marred by numerous injuries. The Mavs lucked out and won the NBA Draft Lottery. They selected Cooper Flagg from Duke with the #1 pick. Flagg looked good in the preseason, but he has a lot of pressure on him to save a franchise that is still reeling after trading away the beloved Doncic.
Memphis Grizzlies
Win Total: 39.5 O/U
Last Season Record: 48-34
Our Pick: UNDER
The Grizzlies fired head coach Taylor Jenkins even though he managed to keep the team afloat whenever Ja Morant missed time with injuries or suspensions. New head coach Tuomas Iisalo has been successful wherever he coached in Europe, but we’ll see if he can thrive in the NBA and handle Morant and his off-the-court issues. The Grizzlies lost Desmond Bane, who often stepped up when Morant was out. They added Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Ty Jerome to replace the always reliable and lethal-shooting Bane.
Portland Trail Blazers
Win Total: 34.5 O/U
Last Season Record: 36-46
Our Pick: OVER
Jrue Holiday will provide veteran leadership on a young team. Scoot Henderson is hurt to start the season, but Shaedon Sharpe and Donovan Clingnan made strong contributions in the second half of last season. The Trail Blazers have several key role players, including Toumani Camara, Deni Avdija, and Jerami Grant. Meanwhile, will we look back and say that Chinese center Yang Hansen was the steal of the 2025 Draft?
Sacramento Kings
Win Total: 35.5 O/U
Last Season Record: 40-42
Our Pick: UNDER
The Kings were a hot mess last season, and that trend will continue. Even though the tandem of Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan butted heads when they were teammates in Chicago, the Kings’ front office thought they could be a perfect fit in “Cow Town.” The last-second addition of Russell Westbrook seems like a move out of desperation.
Phoenix Suns
Win Total: 31.5 O/U
Last Season Record: 36-46
Our Pick: OVER
Kudos to the Suns, who wisely realized they misfired with the acquisitions of Durant and Beal. With both Durant and Beal gone, star guard Devin Booker has an excellent chance to let the entire offense flow through his hands. The addition of Dillon Brooks provides the Suns with a fierce competitor who won’t be intimidated by the biggest stars in the West. The Suns have a fourth head coach in four seasons after consecutive one-and-done seasons with Frank Vogel and Mike Budenholzer. Even though both Vogel and Budenholzer each won an NBA championship with other teams, they were jettisoned after only 82 games with the Suns. Hopefully, team owner Mat Ishbia gives rookie head coach Jordan Ott more leeway. Even with last year’s dysfunctional squad, the Suns still won 36 games. They only need to win 32 games to hit the Over, which is well within reason.
New Orleans Pelicans
Win Total: 30.5 O/U
Last Season Record: 21-61
Our Pick: UNDER
Former #1 pick Zion Williamson battled numerous injuries since he entered the league. He’s missed more games (268) than he played (214) over the last six seasons. When he’s healthy, Williamson is a major force and an exciting player. However, he’s been unable to shake the injury bug. After logging a career-high 70 games in 2023-24, he missed 52 games last season. The training staff encouraged him to lose weight in the offseason to reduce his injury risk. Alas, we’re not buying “Skinny Zion!” and we’ll be fading him instead.
Utah Jazz
Win Total: 18.5 O/U
Last Season Record: 17-65
Our Pick: OVER
The bottom of the board is where you will find the best value. With the Jazz, you only need 19 victories to hit the Over. Rookie Ace Bailey looks like the real deal. If Bailey plays well early in the season, the Jazz will be more inclined to move All-Star forward Lauri Markkanen before the trade deadline. Even if they trade Markkanen and absorb any veterans with expiring contracts, the Over is plausible for head coach Will Hardy
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