Do we hear the dulcet tones of that wonderful Sunday morning-in-these-parts cartoon tradition—the wonderful “Underdog?” Serving as our CFB Guide’s earworm this week?
Perhaps the Guide learned a lesson last week ignoring that savory USC Trojans-Colorado Buffaloes Over in favor of a Washington Huskies team giving what became 19 points to an Arizona Wildcats team that somehow became a nuisance to the Pac-12’s elite.
This is one reason we’re taking a long, hard look at underdogs this week. And we’ve found two that offer value and opportunity: one at home against one of America’s most storied programs, one on the road at one of America’s most iconic stadiums.
You could even take an educated shot at a third and nobody would blink. But we like a tasty total here, based on what we’ve seen these two do on both sides of the ball.
Last week: 1-2. Season: 7-9.
Is There Any Fight in the Fighting Irish?
Stay with the Ohio State Buckeyes before losing, 17-14. Take on a feisty Duke Blue Devils team and engineer a 95-yard drive to pull out a 21-14 win on the road. And next week, reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams and the USC Trojans come to South Bend. That makes this a good time to mention what lies ahead this week for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. That would be a feral and undefeated Louisville Cardinals’ team. Can you say “trap game?”
If Notre Dame QB Sam Hartman has anything to say about it, he’ll be the one springing the trap. The Wake Forest transfer picked up where he left off last year, throwing for 1,458 yards and 14 TDs. He has yet to throw an interception this year and is averaging 10.1 yards per attempt. Hartman brings the Irish into Louisville against a Cardinals’ team allowing only 17.2 points a game under first-year head coach Jeff Brohm. He has 5-0 Louisville playing far above anyone’s expectations this early in his tenure. The Cardinals are 3-0 ATS against Notre Dame lifetime and get the Irish at home with an extra day of rest; they beat the North Carolina State Wolfpack, 13-10, last Friday. They also get the Irish in the perfect spot on the schedule. How much does Notre Dame have in the emotional tank after Ohio State and Duke and with USC looming? We’re guessing not enough to cover here.
Best Bet: Louisville +6.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Watch: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC or fuboTV
No Holding These Tigers
Not that they wanted to watch that Zero D effort in 3D living color again, but duty forced the LSU Tigers’ coaching staff to hit the video of their 55-49 loss to the Ole Miss Rebels. What horror show did this reveal? Thirty-four missed tackles that led to 284 offensive yards for Ole Miss. That’s 284 out of the eye-watering 706 yards—389 passing, 317 rushing. The Tigers surrendered in a game that likely torpedoed their playoff hopes. LSU is only 2-3 ATS this year and in those three games it failed to cover—two of which being losses (to Ole Miss and the Florida State Seminoles).
The Tigers allowed an average of nearly 44 points a game. They are allowing 6.5 yards per play, which is 116th in the country. Not even one of the Guide’s favorite QBs, Jayden Daniels, can pass his way out of that mess. Not that he hasn’t tried; Daniels has thrown for 1,710 yards and 16 TDs to go with another 292 and three scores on the ground. He’s averaging 10.4 yards per attempt and threw for 414 last week. He’ll have to, considering this one’s looking like another two-way aerial assault, with the undefeated Missouri Tigers and their standout QB Brady Cook awaiting. Cook has completed 72% of his passes for 1,468 yards and 11 TDs to zero interceptions and now he gets to concoct a game against an LSU defense ranked 130th against the pass. You could take the 6.5 points the host Tigers are getting, especially since LSU coach Brian Kelly is 1-4 ATS as a road favorite. But we’re looking at two offensive juggernauts who are a combined 9-1 (with LSU a perfect 5-0) to the over. And that’s no horror show to the over bettor.
Best Bet: Over-64.5 (-110 at Caesars)
Watch: Saturday, Noon ET, ESPN or fuboTV
Do We Have the Right Favorite Here?
One of these teams is 14-5 ATS against Pac-12 opponents over the last three seasons, 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games and 3-1 this season. One of these teams is unbeaten, with victories over two ranked opponents. This team also features a QB who has thrown for 13 touchdowns and zero interceptions. One of these teams is probably the most underrated team in the country, as we’re seeing by the fact it’s a 3.5-point underdog with all of the above factors.
The other team here is the UCLA Bruins, who find themselves favored at home against a Washington State Cougars team that owns victories over the Wisconsin Badgers and Oregon State Beavers with the aforementioned standout QB. That would be Cameron Ward, who in addition to his 1,390 yards through the air also has 109 and three TDs on the ground. Ward often gets lost in the flying circus of QBs, but after engineering a 38-35 upset of Oregon State two weeks ago via a 28-for-34, 404-yard, four-TD day, he’s on UCLA’s radar. Speaking of the Bruins, they finally gave the reins to heralded freshman QB Dante Moore, who struggled to a 15-for-35 day in UCLA’s 14-7 loss to Utah two weeks ago. Moore will eventually join the nation’s elite QBs, but UCLA’s best chance for overcoming its 4-6 ATS record in its last 10 is relying on an improved defense that racked up four sacks against Utah two weeks ago. We’re not relying on that, going with a team that doesn’t call the beautiful Rose Bowl home.
Best Bet: Washington State +3.5 (-110 at Caesars)
Watch: Saturday, 3 p.m. ET, Pac 12 Network or fuboTV
New users can place a sports cash wager at Caesars Sportsbook of $10 or more and receive 1,000 Reward Credits, 1,000 Tier Credits AND if you lose the first real money bet you place, receive a bet up to $1,250!
