As longtime followers of the Gridiron Guru know, we’re big devotees to finding trends in college football. They often signify a team’s tendencies better than anything else. If a team is known for having a suspect or super-defense, a potent or pathetic offense, the breadcrumbs left from that tendency help tremendously in handicapping a game.
Until it doesn’t.
After partially righting the ship last week, this is a week where we’re risking hitting the lifeboats again. Because in all three of our games, we’re going against the betting trends.
If there’s one thing that supersedes trends, it’s flexibility. We like flexibility, especially with these three games this week.
Last week: 2-1; Season 2-4.
USC-Michigan? Here? Now?
There is so much out of sync with this game from a traditional sense that it takes a while to unpack. First, these two aren’t playing on January 1 in the Rose Bowl, where they’ve met eight times, including the last time they met in 2007.
Second, this is USC’s Big 10 debut. Third, the Trojans haven’t played at Michigan Stadium since Sept. 27, 1958. That’s right; this is USC’s first trip to the Big House since the Eisenhower administration.
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While you’re unpacking all of that history turned on its ear, it’s time to unpack that USC actually may have a defense this year. That would be a first under Lincoln Riley, who watched the Trojans hold LSU to 20 points, then blank Utah State. That does not bode well for a Michigan team making a QB change from Davis Warren (two TDs-six INTs in two games) to Alex Orji, or a Michigan team with a -4 turnover ratio. Orji came on late to replace Warren in a sloppy 28-18 victory over Arkansas State last week.
USC, meanwhile, has no such issues. Not with Miller Moss completing 72.7 percent of his passes for 607 yards and two TDs. He has yet to throw an interception and USC has one turnover in those two games.
Again, the trends aren’t the Trojans’ friends. They are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games, haven’t won and covered in the Eastern or Central time zones since a 2011 victory at Notre Dame and haven’t won a game in either time zone since beating Syracuse in September 2012.
But if we’re turning history on its ear in this one, why stop now?
Best Bet: USC -5.5 (-110 at Caesars)
This is a Wildcat Strike
This line opened at Kansas State -6.5 and went to -7 in short order. The Wildcats were 0-4 as a road favorite last year and BYU has covered in its last five games, dating back to last November. That streak covered the spectrum for the Cougars, who covered as 24.5-point underdogs (against Oklahoma) and as 16.5-point favorites (against Southern Illinois). It also covered BYU’s three victories this season, including an 18-15 upset of SMU, where the Cougars were 12.5-point dogs.
And yet—we’re shaking off that trend and discounting the fact that BYU allows opposing rushers only 3.4 yards per carry. So why do we like Kansas State in this late-night Big 12 After Dark game?
Simple. BYU hasn’t seen a rushing attack like the one the Wildcats are ready to unleash. SMU and overmatched Southern Illinois and Wyoming do not have a Swiss Army Knife quarterback like Kansas State’s Avery Johnson. When last we saw Johnson, he was springing his numerous weapons for 110 yards on the ground and another 156 through the air (on 14-of-23 passing) and two touchdowns in the Wildcats’ 31-7 dismissal of Arizona. Along with that, Kansas State is grinding out 244.3 yards a game on the ground—seven yards per carry.
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Kansas State is a hot mess for betting trends; aside from the aforementioned, last week’s victory as seven-point favorites was the first time in three games the Wildcats have covered. And as the Gridiron Guru pointed out with the Wildcats last week, sometimes the trends bend. This is one of those times.
Best Bet: Kansas State -6 (-110 at Caesars Sportsbook)
Bruin Trouble in Baton Rouge
Usually, when you see an SEC front-line team giving 24 points at home, you’re expecting to see a directional school from a third-tier conference coming in as the entrée’ du jour. The routine typically goes like this: come in, get poleaxed, let the home team empty its depth chart, and depart with memories and a nice check.
This is not where you expect to see UCLA. But here we are.
The Bruins may technically be a directional school, with “LA” as part of its name. But in no other way do they fit the traditional doormat-for-a-check from a minor conference team. The last time UCLA was a 20-plus-point underdog was 2019, which happens to be the last time the Bruins played in the Central Time Zone. How’d that go for the Bruins? Not well—they were hammered 48-14 by Oklahoma. Overall, according to the Action Network, UCLA has lost four straight road games in either the Central or Eastern time zones since 2015 and are 3-6 ATS in nine CST or EST games since 2011.
And this is shaping up to be a historically bad UCLA team. After barely eking out a win at Hawaii, followed by a bye week, the Bruins opened their inaugural Big 10 campaign getting drilled 42-13 at the Rose Bowl by Indiana. Indiana?
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That’s traditional Big 10 doormat Indiana to everyone but the Bruins, who suffered their worst home-opening loss since 2010—just in time to embark on a three-game death march to Baton Rouge, followed by a home game against No. 9 Oregon, then at No. 10 Penn State. This is what awaits a UCLA team averaging just 14.5 points and 83.5 yards rushing. Did we say QB Ethan Garbers is completing barely 54 percent of his passes?
LSU, meanwhile, isn’t exactly playing like an SEC juggernaut. The Tigers barely survived their conference opener at South Carolina last week, overcoming a 17-point deficit, a blocked punt and two long TD runs to put away the Gamecocks 36-33, as six-point favorites. LSU is 0-4 ATS in its last four games, including failing to cover against Nicholls State in a typical sacrificial-lamb-for-a-check game. But does that matter against a new Big 10 doormat?
Best Bet: LSU -24 (-110 at Caesars).
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