The defending champion Philadelphia Eagles host the Chicago Bears in a Black Friday showdown. The game kicks off at 1 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime, featuring two division-leading teams that are both 8-3. The Eagles opened as a -7 favorite with a total of 44.5 Over/Under.
This matchup could be a potential playoff preview. If the season ended today, the Eagles would secure the #2 seed in the NFC, and the Bears would lock up the #3 seed.
The Bears find themselves in a vulnerable position, and could cough up first place in the NFC North with a loss on Black Friday and a victory by a divisional rival on Thanksgiving. The Green Bay Packers (7-3-1) are in second place in the NFC North, and the Detroit Lions (7-4) are looming in third place. They meet on Thanksgiving with the Lions hosting their annual holiday game in Detroit.
Case for the Eagles: What Happened to Saquon Barkley?
The Dallas Cowboys snapped the Eagles’ four-game win streak in Week 12 after the Eagles blew a 21-0 lead and their defense allowed 24 unanswered points.
The Eagles are 4-1 at home this season with three more games in Philadelphia on the docket. The Bears are the toughest opponent on their own turf with home games against the Las Vegas Raiders (Week 15) and Washington Commanders (Week 18).
Philly squeaked out a lot of wins this season, and seven out of their eight victories occurred in one-score games. Their lone blowout was an 18-point revenge game against the banged-up New York Giants in Week 8.
The Eagles saw their defense improve over the last few weeks, which is why they’ve been securing narrow margins of victory. They’re now ranked #8 in scoring defense, allowing 20.5 ppg.
Hurts Feelings
The offense is not as lethal as last season. Quarterback Jalen Hurts is getting a lot of guff from the fanbase for his inconsistency, even though he tossed just one interception in 11 games.
A disgruntled AJ Brown has not been shy about his lack of involvement in the offense this season, with only 46 receptions for 567 yards. The Eagles targeted Brown early and often against the Cowboys for eight catches and 110 yards. Brown also found the end zone for only the fourth time this season.
The Eagles had the second-best rushing attack in the NFL last season, racking up over 179.3 yards per game. This season, they’re ranked #21 and generate only 110.5 rushing yards per game.
Saquon Barkley’s decline is troublesome. Barkley averaged a career-high 125.3 rushing yards per game last season while averaging 5.8 yards per carry. He exceeded 100 rushing yards 11 times in 16 starts, including six games with 150+ yards. As a dual-threat juggernaut last season, he only had three instances out of 16 games last season when he didn’t combine for at least 100 yards from scrimmage.
Barkley’s stats are significantly off this season. He averages only 62.8 rushing yards per game and 3.7 yards per carry. He exceeded 89 rushing yards in a game only once in 11 games. He posted only two games with more than 100 combined yards from scrimmage. He scored six combined touchdowns this season compared to 15 total touchdowns last season.
In their three losses this season, Barkley rushed only 28 times for 110 yards. The Eagles are desperate to ignite their lackluster running game. Barkley needs to have more than 17 touches on Friday if the Eagles want to beat the Bears.
The Tush Push is the only reliable offensive weapon for the Eagles this season, but even that has drawn more scrutiny from officials and widespread criticism from fans and media.
The Bears are super thin on defense right now due to a cluster of injuries with their linebackers. Expect the Eagles to exploit the Bears’ depleted linebacking corps. The Bears have the sixth-worst scoring defense in the NFL, which allows 26.5 ppg. They allow 138.1 rushing yards per game, which is ranked in the bottom five.
Case for the Bears: Ben Johnson’s Offense
The Bears have a four-game winning streak on the line. After a slow start, Ben Johnson’s Bears won eight out of their last nine games with a lone loss against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 8.
Chicago padded their record against bad teams and barely beat them. The Raiders, Commanders, Giants, New Orleans Saints, and Cincinnati Bengals combined 12-44 record this season. Four of those victories were one-score games decided by 12 total points.
The Bears edged out the Minnesota Vikings in Week 11 and the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 12, but those victories were one-score games decided by five total points.
Despite a banged-up defense, the Bears rely on their offense to win games. Johnson couples an old-school running game with explosive passing plays. The Bears are ranked #8 in scoring offense, averaging 26.3 points per game. Their rushing attack is ranked #2 overall, generating 142.3 yards per game.
During his tenure as the offensive coordinator of the Lions, Johnson established a two-headed rushing attack with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Johnson applied a similar philosophy in his first season with the Bears by utilizing veteran D’Andre Swift and rookie Kyle Monangai. The two combined for 1,110 yards and eight rushing touchdowns. Quarterback Caleb Williams also contributed 293 rushing yards (on 5.2 yards per carry) and three rushing scores.
After a sluggish start, Williams found his rhythm in Johnson’s system. During their recent four-game winning streak, Williams threw three touchdowns twice with zero interceptions.
Cool Stats
The Bears and Eagles are among the best betting teams in the NFL this season. Both squads are 7-4 against the spread.
The Bears are 7-2 ATS over their previous nine games and have covered four games in a row.
The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five games. The Under hit for the Eagles in their previous three games.
Chicago has the best turnover differential in the NFL at +16. Their defense induced 24 takeaways with a league-leading 16 interceptions and eight fumbles. They gave up only eight giveaways with four interceptions and four lost fumbles.
Futures Market Update
According to BetMGM, the Eagles are +700 odds to win Super Bowl 60 as the second favorite on the futures board behind the Los Angeles Rams (+400). The Bears are a long shot to win the Super Bowl at +7000 odds.
The Eagles are +340 odds to win the NFC Championship for the third time in the last four seasons. The Bears are +3000 odds to win their first NFC Championship since the 2006 season.
The NFC North is one of the tightest division races in the NFL heading into Thanksgiving week. The Packers are the betting favorite at +125 odds, followed by the Lions (+155) and the Bears (+320). The Bears last won the NFC North during the 2018 season.
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