Four teams remain in the playoffs after a feisty NFL Divisional Round with terrible weather and bad officiating. The #1 Kansas City Chiefs and #2 Buffalo Bills meet in the AFC Championship. The NFC Championship will be a battle of two NFC East teams with the #2 Philadelphia Eagles hosting the #6 Washington Commanders.
The Eagles are now the new betting favorite to win Super Bowl 59 after the Commanders upset the top-seeded Detroit Lions. The Eagles are +180 odds to win the Super Bowl and -250 odds to win the NFC Championship according to a recent update by BetMGM. The Commanders are the long shot on the futures board to win the Super Bowl at +700 odds, and the NFC title at +2000. The Eagles opened as a -5 favorite and early Philly money pushed the line to -6.
The Chiefs are +240 odds to win a third-straight Super Bowl, and -125 odds to win the AFC Championship. The Bills are not far behind at +250 odds to finally win their franchise’s first Super Bowl. They’re also +105 odds to claim their first AFC Championship in 30 years. The Chiefs opened as a modest -1 favorite, but the line moved to -2 after the initial wave of money backed the defending champs.
Eagles: Hurts So Good
Super Bowl Odds: +180
NFC Championship Odds: -250
During the preseason, the Eagles were +1400 odds to win the Super Bowl. After a sluggish start, the Eagles saw their futures reach a season-high price of +1600 in Week 7. Their lowest number during the season occurred in Week 15 at +475.
Even though the Eagles won 10 games in a row and finished the season with a 12-1 clip, they were overshadowed by the heavily favored Lions. You could’ve backed the Eagles at +700 odds to win the Super Bowl at the start of the playoffs compared to +180 with four teams to go.
Currently, they’re the consensus favorite to win the NFC at -250 odds and the top team on the futures board to win the Super Bowl at +180.
The Eagles had one of the best defenses heading into the playoffs, so it’s not surprising to see them reach the NFC Championship. Saquon Barkley has played sensationally in the postseason, and he’s clearly the top running back among the final four teams.
Jalen Hurts recovered from a late-season concussion, but he sustained a knee injury against the Los Angeles Rams in the Divisional Round. He wore a knee brace after the injury and still led the Eagles to victory in the snow with 70 rushing yards and one touchdown.
The Eagles and Commanders split their two divisional meetings this season, but Hurts sat out the second game with a concussion. Even with backup QB Kenny Pickett, the Eagles lost by only three points.
Chiefs: KC and the Referee Band
Super Bowl Odds: +240
AFC Championship Odds:-125
Moments after the Chiefs won back-to-back Super Bowls, they were installed as the betting favorite at +500 odds to win Super Bowl 59. They remained at the top of the futures board during the entire offseason through the first ten weeks of the regular season. Their in-season odds were never higher than +750. In late December, the Chiefs were favorites once again for a couple of weeks before the Lions overtook them at the end of the season.
Defending champions receive favorable calls from officials in every sport. The Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes were generously officiated in the last few seasons with timely penalty flags on their opponents and numerous non-calls in their favor. There’s been no shortage of memes poking fun at their blatant favoritism. However, the lopsided officiating got out of hand in the Divisional Round. The Houston Texans incurred several ridiculous flags, while the officials missed obvious penalties and infractions by the Chiefs. Even the announcers were calling out the atrocious officiating.
Social media is a bastion for NFL conspiracy theories, especially involving Taylor Swift and the Chiefs. Winning a playoff game in the heart of winter is hard enough, but it becomes an impossible feat when the officials are against you.
With that said, the Chiefs are -125 odds to win the AFC Championship for the fifth time in the last seven seasons. If you believe in Taylor Swift Voodoo, then the Chiefs are +240 odds to become the NFL’s first three-peat champion. In case you were wondering, the Chiefs improved to 17-3 in games that Swift attends in person, yet they’re only 11-8-1 against the spread.
Bills: Will Allen Finally Beat Mahomes?
Super Bowl Odds: +250
AFC Championship Odds: +105
The Bills were the outright Super Bowl favorite on the futures market only once during the regular season at the end of Week 15 at +425 odds. The Bills were priced at +1600 in the preseason and hit a season high in Week 7 at +1200.
At the start of the playoffs, the Bills were +650 odds to win the Super Bowl and fourth on the futures board. They’re now +250 heading into the AFC Championship after getting knocked out in the Divisional Round in three consecutive postseasons.
The Bills knew that their road to the Super Bowl would probably run through Kansas City. They cleared their first hurdle by defeating the Baltimore Ravens in the Divisional Round. Now they’ll square off against the nemesis once again.
Josh Allen lost to Mahomes in the playoffs three times out of the last four postseasons, and the last two losses were decided by one score. Allen has a 0-4 record against Mahomes in the playoffs, but will this finally be the year that the Bills get over the hump and defeat the Chiefs? To quote the legendary Ric Flair, “In order to be the man, you have to beat the man!”
The Bills are a slight underdog, but they’ve become the sentimental favorite in the AFC Championship. Mahomes and the Chiefs have emerged as the NFL’s new evil empire, which means there’s a significant number of fans rooting for Allen and the Bills to end the Chiefs’ reign.
Commanders: The Underdog Stays Hot
Super Bowl Odds: +700
NFC Championship Odds: +2000
The market had extremely low expectations for the Commanders in the preseason, which is why they were +12000 odds to win the Super Bowl. Calling them a long shot at 120/1 odds is an understatement; the Commanders were a moon shot. It was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Commanders with a new head coach and rookie quarterback, and now they’re one win away from reaching the Super Bowl.
After losing their first game of the season, the Commanders saw their futures hit a season high at +13000 after Week 1. Their price improved to +2000 during a 7-1 stretch in the middle of the season. They lost three games in a row after Jayden Daniels sustained a rib injury, and their odds jumped to +8000 in Week 12. They closed out the season on a winning streak, and their odds improved to +4500.
The Lions were the consensus favorite to win the Super Bowl at the start of the playoffs, and many so-called experts thought they’d defeat the Commanders by double digits. Even though the Commanders closed as a +8.5 road underdog, they beat the Lions by 14 points. The Commanders lit up the Lions for 45 points while committing zero turnovers, allowing no sacks, and punting only once. Daniels threw two touchdowns and rushed for 51 yards in the epic victory. Head coach Dan Quinn gambled on several aggressive calls on fourth down, which extended two key drives.
The Commanders are the hottest team remaining after winning seven games in a row dating back to early December. They’re the long shot on the board to win the NFC Championship at +2000 odds and +700 to win the Super Bowl. After they beat down the Lions, they have a legit shot at the NFC Championship or even the Super Bowl. If you love rooting for underdogs or just loathe the Eagles, then you’ll be cheering for the Redskins on Sunday.
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