NFL Divisional Round Playoffs: Stats, Analysis and Best Bets for this Weekend’s Matchups

The NFL Playoffs continue this weekend with two games on Saturday and two on Sunday. Tipico Sportsbook has previews and best bets for all four games.

Just eight teams remain in contention to win Super Bowl LVIII, and half of those will be eliminated this weekend in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs.

NFL Playoff Odds

Team                                           Spread       ML             Total

Houston Texans at                +9.5 (-110)  +350           Over 43.5 (-112)

Baltimore Ravens                  -9.5 (-110)   -425            Under 43.5 (-108)

 

Green Bay Packers at            +9.5 (-108)  +360           Over 50.5 (-110)

San Francisco 49ers               -9.5 (-112)   -450            Under 50.5 (-110)

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at     +6.5 (-110)  +235           Over 48.5 (-108)

Detroit Lions                            -6.5 (-110)   -280              Under 48.5 (-112)

 

Kansas City Chiefs at            +3 (-115)     +125           Over 45.5 (-108)

Buffalo Bills                             -3 (-105)     -145              Under 45.5 (-112)

Two games will be played Saturday, with the other two taking place Sunday. Below are the top spread, moneyline, or point total bets found on Tipico Sportsbook for the divisional round of the NFL playoffs, as well as some key stats that could help dictate the weekend’s results. Also, check out our experts’ picks for the best player prop bets.


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Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens

Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud followed up his stellar rookie regular season with an outstanding playoff debut, throwing three touchdowns in a 45-14 home win over the Cleveland Browns.

Just like that, Stroud has as many playoff wins and passing touchdowns in his career as Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson. While Jackson had a great regular season and will likely win MVP, his 2019 MVP campaign was followed up by a 28-12 playoff loss to the Tennessee Titans, and he’s just 1-3 in the postseason.

Baltimore handled the Texans 25-9 back in Week 1, but Stroud has come a long way since then, and it’s notable that Jackson was held to 169 passing yards and 38 rushing yards by Houston’s defense. That was his second-lowest and fourth-lowest totals of the season, respectively.

The Ravens were 13-4 in the regular season, but three of those four losses came at home. The bye week presented a valuable opportunity for Baltimore to heal up. Tight end Mark Andrews (ankle) could be available Saturday. The Texans are the more battle-tested team in recent weeks, having won a win-and-in matchup at Indianapolis in Week 18 before steamrolling the Browns. The Ravens are rightfully favored after their strong regular season, but pulling away from the feisty young Texans won’t be easy.

Best Bet: Texans +9.5 against Ravens (-112)

Watch: Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET, ESPN, ABC or fuboTV 

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers

The offenses of the Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers generate a lot of headlines. Christian McCaffrey led the NFL in rushing yards (1,459) and touchdowns (21) in the regular season. QB Brock Purdy had a 31 to 11 TD to interception ratio for the 49ers.

Packers QB Jordan Love posted a 32 to 11 TD to INT ratio in the regular season. Aaron Jones has rushed for more than 100 yards in four consecutive games for the Packers.

That being said, reaching 50 total points won’t be easy in this game.

San Francisco allowed the third-fewest points per game (17.5) in the regular season. The Packers gave up 20.6, but Green Bay’s defense has been playing its best football recently. The Packers allowed just 19 total points over their last two games prior to the playoffs, and most of Dallas’ 32 points in the wild-card round came after the game had been decided.

San Francisco doesn’t mind running the clock with time-consuming drives. It features plenty of runs and short passes to McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel. Green Bay’s inexperienced offense could be stifled by a 49ers defense that’s unlikely to have frequent breakdowns like Dallas did.

Best Bet: Packers-49ers Under 50.5 points (-110)

Watch: Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET, FOX or fuboTV 


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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions

It took a blazing hot start on offense, the best red zone performance of the season from the defense and some questionable non-calls on the Rams’ final drive, but the Detroit Lions came away with its first playoff win since the 1991 season in the Wild Card round.

The defense was able to successfully bend without breaking in that game. Matthew Stafford threw for a season-high 367 yards, marking the fourth consecutive game in which an opposing quarterback piled up at least 345 yards against Detroit’s secondary. That’s a worrisome trend with red-hot Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield coming to town. Mayfield threw for 337 yards and three touchdowns in Tampa Bay’s dominant 32-9 home win over the Philadelphia Eagles.

In their last 10 games, the Lions won by more than six points only twice. Detroit went 7-3 in that stretch overall, so it was by no means a Philadelphia-like stretch run, but this doesn’t seem like a game in which either team is likely to pull away, especially since the Buccaneers are quietly 6-1 in their last seven games.

Both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs scored last week against a Rams defense that tied for the fewest scrimmage touchdowns allowed to running backs in the regular season. But the Buccaneers also gave up just seven TDs to running backs all season. Things don’t get any easier this week for Detroit’s productive backfield duo.

Best Bet: Buccaneers +6.5 against the Lions (-110)

Watch: Sunday, 3 p.m. ET, NBC or fuboTV 

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills

The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills is another matchup in which the offenses grab the headlines. The defenses, however, are likely to dictate the outcome.

Patrick Mahomes is 2-0 against Josh Allen in the playoffs. Both of those wins came at Arrowhead Stadium. When these teams met earlier this season, they combined for only 37 points in a 20-17 Bills win. If the controversial offensive offside against Kadarius Toney hadn’t been called, then the result would have flipped with an extra Chiefs touchdown, but the total still would have been under 46 points.

Both defenses thrived in the regular season, as the Chiefs allowed 17.3 points per game. The Bills gave up 18.3. They also excelled in cold weather Wild Card round matchups. Kansas City held the Miami Dolphins to seven points and Buffalo allowed only 17 to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Unlike the previous Mahomes vs. Allen postseason matchups, points will likely be at a premium this time around in what will be Mahomes’ first true career playoff road game.

Best Bet: Chiefs-Bills Under 45.5 points (-112

Watch: Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET, CBS or fuboTV


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(logo/link) At Tipico Sportsbook Colorado and New Jersey customers can deposit $100 or more of real money on their first deposit to receive up to $500 in protected bets!


 

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History Playbook

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On This Day In Sports History

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