Maybe Robin Hood and Friar Tuck came back through the door at Nottingham Forest. How else to explain where the goals suddenly materialized from?
And how else to explain Aston Villa materializing in the top-four?
As we return to exploring the hidden value and opportunity in European soccer, we try answering those questions—and asking new ones along the way.
Spurs Stick Man United Again
This is not your father’s Manchester United. This is a Man U team in which the only predictable feature is an unpredictable bug. The Red Devils lost four of 10 games at the formerly unassailable fortress known as Old Trafford, with a goal-differential of minus 3. This isn’t your older brother’s Man U team either, not scoring 22 goals in 20 games this season. Only bottom-feeding Burnley and Sheffield United have scored fewer.
And somehow, Man U sits in eighth place with a minus 5 goal differential, making it the only team in the top half of the ladder to have a negative goal differential. And form? The Red Devils’ form falls into the “who knows” category. They rallied from 2-0 down to beat Aston Villa, 3-2, and held first-place Liverpool scoreless in a 0-0 draw. They also lost 3-0 to Bournemouth, 2-0 to West Ham and 2-1 to Nottingham Forest last out.
Tottenham Hotspur, meanwhile, comes into Old Trafford 4-1 in its last five. Spurs may be missing leading scorer Heung Min Son who is playing for South Korea in the Asia Cup, but they aren’t missing a stellar away form that produced only two losses in their last 11 road games.
There are numerous ways you can play this one, including taking Tottenham and Both Teams To Score (BTTS) at +360. Given the unpredictable nature of this series goal-wise; three of the last six games between these two featured a clean sheet and the last five Man United home games all featured Under-2.5 goals, we’re dialing that back.
Best Bet: Tottenham (+200 at Caesars)
Watch: Sunday, 12:30 p.m. ET, Peacock, or fuboTV
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Expect Everton to Disappoint Again
There is a bet in European soccer akin to the Pick-em bet in the U.S. It’s called Draw/No Bet and unlike the typical three-way wager: win-lose-draw, this is two-way action. Normally, you lose your bet for a draw, unless you wagered on that outcome. Under the Draw/No Bet, the draw becomes a push.
It’s a wager made for this game: Aston Villa vs. Everton.
Everton currently sits in 17th place, one point north of 18th-place Luton. For that, the Toffees can thank a 10-point deduction for breaches of profitability and financial sustainability rules. Give Everton back its 10 points and the Toffees would be in 12th.
But even with that asterisk and the fifth-best road form in the league, Everton has itself to blame for their current life on the relegation edge: its breach of home form. At home, Everton has taken 10 points out of a possible 30 (3-1-6), a worse home record than only Crystal Palace and the aforementioned three teams in the relegation zone.
Now, enter a sizzling Aston Villa team to Goodison Park that currently sits second in the table, three points behind Liverpool and two points ahead of teams you’d expect to find well north of Aston Villa in the standings: Manchester City and Arsenal. Aston Villa is not only in rarefied air, hanging with the league’s elite, but expects to stay there and play Champions League football next season.
To do that, it needs to win games like this. It can’t afford point-dropping letdowns like the 1-1 burp with 20th-place Sheffield United December 22, or the 3-2 loss to Manchester United on Boxing Day.
Consider that after this game, Aston Villa has the next two weeks off before an FA Cup game against Chelsea. There’s no reason for Unai Emery’s squad to hold anything back here against a reeling team specializing in disappointing its fans. And if Everton manages a draw, you’re no worse for the endeavor taking the push.
Best Bet: Aston Villa Draw/No Bet (-120 at BetRivers)
Watch: Sunday, 9 a.m. ET, USA Network or fuboTV
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A Bet on Newcastle? What are we Thinking?
Yes, we know. Putting any kind of wager on Newcastle United is an indication of sanity—or a lack thereof. The last time Newcastle hoisted a trophy of any consequence, President Dwight D. Eisenhower was on your television screen and Alaska and Hawaii weren’t represented on your flag.
It was 1955. And Newcastle hasn’t lifted silverware since. The closest it came was a trio of FA Cup runner-up finishes and two seconds in the League Cup and its various iterations—including last year’s runner-up finish to Manchester United.
Last year, Newcastle finished fourth, earning a Champions League berth that it frittered away with a last-place, group-stage finish. This year, the Magpies currently sit in 9th place, 11 points behind fourth-place Arsenal—with five teams to go over to get there. Back-dooring a Europa League spot is more likely, but they’re still staring up at four teams and 10 points.
Here’s where the FA Cup, Get-Into-Europe-Free Card comes into play. Win the FA Cup and you get an automatic berth into the Europa League group stage. Yes, Newcastle has been beset with injuries and fatigue all season; hence the reason it sits in ninth place. But here’s where Eddie Howe’s squad can go all-in—on England’s oldest trophy.
Yes, Manchester City and Liverpool are in the way. So is Tottenham, which plays City next. All three have European football, along with Premier League duties. It’s not inconceivable for City and Liverpool to sit their stars in this competition. Chelsea and Manchester United are also looming at shorter odds, but given their schizoid form, Newcastle need not fear either.
Quoting another mid-20th century American president, it only has to fear itself.
Best Bet: Newcastle United to win the FA Cup (10-1 at BetMGM)
