This is where the fork in the Road to the Kentucky Derby begins. Where the serious Derby threats appear and the pretenders and their star-struck owners disappear.
The Grade 2 Risen Star is the first race on what is called the Kentucky Derby Championship Series. It’s the first of six Derby preps offering 105 points to the top five finishers, with a likely spot-clinching 50 points going to the winner.
A little history lesson is always in order, because not all Derby preps are created equal, no matter how many points they bestow. The 1 1/8-mile Risen Star is one of the better Grade 2 Derby preps on the calendar, with its winner’s roll sending out five Grade 1 winners, a Breeders’ Cup Classic champion (Mucho Macho Man 2011), a Horse of the Year (Gun Runner, 2016), a Kentucky Derby winner (Mandaloun, 2021) and a Preakness winner (War of Will, 2019).
This year’s Risen Star sends out the best field to date on the Derby trail. The 12-horse contingent includes the only horse with two victories on the Derby trail—Track Phantom, the 7-2 morning-line favorite. He also has the distinction of sweeping the first two Derby preps at Fair Grounds: the December 23 Gun Runner and the January 20 Lecomte.
It also includes two others with victories on the Derby trail—Catching Freedom (5-1) and Honor Marie (6-1). Catching Freedom captured the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn on New Year’s Day; Honor Code, the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs back in November.
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Track Phantom Back at Familiar Place
Track Phantom (5-3-1-1) returns to his friendly confines riding a three-race winning streak that included those two Derby prep scores. He has three wins over two turns, a key barometer at this point on the Derby trail that often serves as a demarcation line of sorts for Derby hopefuls. That the Steve Asmussen-trained Track Phantom finds Fair Grounds to his liking makes him likeable in this race, considering eight of the last 16 winners of this race came out of a Fair Grounds race in their previous start.
The last time Asmussen sent a strong contender into the Risen Star was two years ago, when he saddled eventual 3-year-old Champion Epicenter and watched him win by nearly three lengths. He would win the Louisiana Derby, before finishing second in both the Derby and Preakness and winning the Travers Stakes.
While Track Phantom checks a lot of boxes for a Risen Star favorite, some critics point out his victories over small fields at slow paces. They also point to the fact favorites win this race at a 19% pace, well below the 33% bar for favorites. Still, you don’t wire a Derby prep field by nearly three lengths—as Track Phantom did in the Grade 3 Lecomte last month—without tactical speed.
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Other Horses to Consider
Should you venture higher up the odds toteboard, you’ll find the aforementioned Catching Freedom, who owns two victories and a fourth in three races. He came from off the pace in that Smarty Jones victory, outrunning a trio of contenders in a cavalry-charge finish to win by 2 ½ lengths.
Catching Freedom carries the added cachet of having Brad Cox calling the shots. The two-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer has won three of the last five Risen Stars, including last year with Angel of Empire. He also prevailed with Mandaloun (2021) and Mr. Monomoy (2020, division one).
Honor Marie is 2-for-3, with a maiden race and that Kentucky Jockey Club bookending an allowance runner-up—all at Churchill Downs. He is the leading money winner in the field ($318,175), but his question is the rust factor. He hasn’t run since that November 25 score.
The X-factor is Sierra Leone (4-1), who figures to take plenty of money because of his tactical speed, the fact he’s one of two horses (Moonlight being the other) who has a 1 1/8-mile race under his belt and that he came with a $2.3 million price tag. He nearly captured the Grade 2 Remsen, putting on a powerful, seven-wide stretch drive that left him just short to Dornoch by a nose. He’s making his 2024 debut adding blinkers and hasn’t run outside of Aqueduct—each factor being a red flag in this event.
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