The matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers is expected to be one of the most anticipated Super Bowls in years.
It certainly is from a betting standpoint. The American Gaming Association estimates a record 67.8 million American adults (26%) are expected to bet on Super Bowl LVIII.
We want to be part of the “in” crowd so we told our staff from both iGamingPlayer and Global Gaming Business Magazine to take $100 and place what they thought was the best bet of the big game.
The answers below might surprise you. You may want to follow their lead and put a bet down on one of their picks.
Shortest Touchdown Under 1.5 Yards
This prop bet has become so trendy, Taylor Swift should record a song about it. Because it’s as hot as Taylor’s Q rating and as predictable as the second ring on a phone.
How reliable is this prop? The shortest touchdown has been under 1.5 yards in each of the last four Super Bowls. It’s been under 1.5 yards in seven of the last eight Super Bowls—with 2019’s Patriots-Rams 13-3 snoozefest being the spoiler. And the only touchdown in that game went for two yards.
Are we falling into recency bias? Well, no. The shortest touchdown has been under 1.5 yards in 24 of the last 34 Super Bowls (70.5%) and in 36 of 57 Super Bowls (63.1%) overall. Given that frequency, this bet should come in at odds around -171. Instead, you’re getting a value-oozing -145 – Brian Robin.
Best Bet: Shortest Touchdown Under 1.5 Yards (-145 at BetMGM)
McCaffery Finds End Zone Often
San Francisco running back Christian McCaffery is +225 odds to score two or more touchdowns. The dual-threat McCaffery led the NFL rushing this season.
In 16 games in the regular season, McCaffrey scored 21 touchdowns with 14 rushing touchdowns and seven receiving touchdowns.
McCaffrey posted five multi-score games during the regular season, and added two more in the playoffs. In two postseason victories, McCaffrey tallied four rushing touchdowns on 37 total carries. He scored twice against the Green Bay Packers and two more times against the Detroit Lions in the NFC Championship – Pauly McGuire.
Best Bet: Christian McCaffery to Score Multiple TDs (+225 at BetMGM)
McCaffrey Bucks MVP Trend
I’m with Paulie as a passenger on the McCaffrey bandwagon. He has shown he is the best player on his team and I think he gets a chance to show America why.
Before you start with the stat that 32 of 57 Super Bowl MVPs have been quarterbacks and that 12 of the last 16 have been signal callers, know that this game is going to be a grind. I don’t see either Brock Purdy or Patrick Mahomes shining in this contest. I am looking for a low-scoring, ground and pound type affair.
That’s why I think McCaffrey will be the best player on the field. I’m not going to lie, Mahomes scares me with his talent, but I think the 49ers’ defense keeps him somewhat in check. – John Reger
Best Bet: Christian McCaffrey Super Bowl MVP (+450 at BetRivers)
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Isiah Pacheco’s Domination Continues
This magical year for the man from New Jersey will continue during the final game of the season on the biggest stage for the Chiefs. A team that lacks consistent pass catching production will surely mean that the run game will continue to propel this team forward.
Isiah Pacheco has dominated the latter half of this season, and I expect him to be a large part of establishing a run game against the 49ers. In addition, due to a lack of reliable receivers for the Chiefs this season, Pacheco will continue to step up in a big way and add enough yards through the air to easily push himself over 88.5 yards – Eric Gros.
Best Bet: Isiah Pacheco Over +88.5 Combined Yards (-110 at Caesars)
Mahomes Employs Air Attack
This bet, which is arguably among the squarest on the board, falls right in line with this year’s playoffs overall, which have been nothing if not predictable. The Dolphins, Bills and Ravens all touted better talent than this year’s Chiefs team, but all three could not execute when it mattered most. Mahomes has elevated himself so far above the rest of the field that it’s impossible to bet against him in any way, shape or form.
Not only that, but the 49ers have not been anywhere close to the juggernaut we saw throughout the course of the regular season, with two uninspiring come-from-behind home wins against inferior opponents. And let’s face it, does any non-San Francisco fan really have confidence in Kyle Shanahan’s ability to exorcise his ever-growing list of playoff demons? I certainly don’t. Mahomes to the moon – Jess Marquez.
Best Bet: Mahomes Over 261.5 passing yards (-110 at Bet365)
Take the Over
The Over/Under for the total points in the Super Bowl is 47.5. Mahomes is playing at a level above perhaps any quarterback in history. Unlike last year, when he won the Super Bowl despite a high ankle sprain, he is 100% healthy.
With tight end Travis Kelce, his favorite target, also at the very top of his game, the Chiefs will easily score 30 points, and probably a lot more. On the San Francisco side, quarterback Brock Purdy managed to muster 34 points in the NFC Championship even though his team pretty much only showed up for the second half, and neither of these teams is apt to implode like the Lions did in that contest. I like 35-27 Chiefs. So take them -2 after you make this bet – Frank Legato.
Best Bet: Over 47.5 points (-110 at Bet365)
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