The Los Angeles Chargers are -3.5 favorites over the New York Jets at Caesars Sportsbook, and the line has been moving since it posted. It opened at Chargers -2.5.
I have not bet this game yet, as I am going to be watching where the bets go and where the line moves leading into Monday, but I’d lean Chargers ATS right now. New York is currently getting 75% of the bets, but the line has gone to -3.5 at most books in L.A.’s favor. I’m curious to see if it stays there. I’d tease them down to under a field goal, but also include a full 6-point tease on the Under, which has been nails in primetime. In fact, primetime Unders are now 20-7 this season after Thursday’s just barely hit, and 159-102-3 since 2019.
The game will be broadcast on ESPN at 8:15 p.m. ET from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.
The Jets defeated in-state rival Giants last week. They now have a three-game winning streak. They previously defeated the Philadelphia Eagles and Denver Broncos.
The Chargers trounced the hapless Chicago Bears last week, 30-13. That win snapped a two-game losing streak.
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Chargers Offense Must Thrive
The win over Chicago brought the Bolts ever closer to getting to that .500 mark on the season. They have actually managed to cover the spread in three of their last five games, so perhaps they can get something going here. Since their move to L.A. from San Diego, the Chargers have faced the Jets twice, and have won both contests by one score.
On offense, quarterback Justin Herbert is dealing with a hand injury, but they have not skipped a beat. This has been one of the better offenses in football, and the clear strength of the team. They also have been particularly good in the red zone, where a lot of other teams fail. L.A. ranks fifth in the NFL in red zone efficiency, scoring points on 66.7% of their drives when they are inside the 20-yard line. It’s an encouraging sign when so many other teams are running stupid trick plays and running out of the shotgun when they need a single yard. If they can continue to avoid red-zone turnovers, this can be one of the more dangerous offenses in football.
Defense Needs Help
Defensively, it hasn’t been so pretty. This team is 3-4 for a reason, most of which is due to the fact that they haven’t been able to stop anybody from putting up points. In fact, they rank as the 32nd team in two key categories on defense. First, they are dead last in first downs allowed per contest, giving up an average of 23.6 to their opponents every game. Teams have been able to move the chains with ease on them, but that isn’t all. They’re also ranked dead last against the pass, allowing a whopping 297.4 yards per game through the air to opponents.
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Jets Struggling with Mediocre Offense
The reason this is a primetime game is that we thought we were getting Aaron Rodgers vs. Herbert. Well, that’s not the case. Instead, we are getting a 4-3 New York team that has managed to stay just above water. They are still hoping that Rodgers can come back this season from his injury. They’ve covered three of their last five games. Last week, they ended up with a push against their in-state rival Giants in a 13-10 victory.
It has been downright painful to watch this Jets offense, and that might be an understatement. They are ranked dead last in numerous categories offensively, and you won’t see them light up scoreboards. Let’s start with the fact that they are the opposite of the Chargers in that they’re ranked 32nd out of 32 teams in red zone efficiency. Incredibly, they only score 26.3% of the time when they reach the red zone, which granted, isn’t often. It’s actually hard to be that incompetent. On top of that, they’re ranked dead last in Third Down Conversion Percentage, sitting at a miserable 23%. Their punter has gotten a lot of work this season since they almost never pick up third downs. Because of this, they’re also ranked last in first downs gained per game, averaging just 14.6 in each contest.
Defense Jets’ Strength
Defensively, I was a bit surprised when I looked at this team. They are certainly better on this side of the ball. That isn’t hard with that offense, but they still haven’t really been that good. The biggest weakness of this defense is their inability to stop the run, as they’re ranked 31st in the NFL, allowing an average of 144.9 yards on the ground per contest. It’s hard to complain about them when the offense is so bad, but I don’t think people realize that the defense may not be as good as they think.
