The Washington Commanders are visiting the Dallas Cowboys in the second game of the NFL’s trio of Thanksgiving Day contests. This matchup features two teams in the NFC East.
Game Information
Washington Commanders (4-7) at Dallas Cowboys (7-3)
Kickoff: Thursday, 4:30pm ET, CBS or fuboTV
Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Point Spread: Dallas -11
Total: 48.5 Over -110, Under -110
Moneyline: Dallas -600, Washington +425
The Cowboys are -11 favorites over the Commanders in Week 12, and the line has been moving since it opened.
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Can Washington Bounce Back?
Losing to Tommy DeVito and the New York Giants is about the most embarrassing thing that can happen to your football team in 2023. It happened to the Commanders in Week 11. They didn’t just lose to the terrible Giants and DeVito, they lost by double-digits. They have now lost four of their last five games, and have failed to cover in three of them.
The offense for Washington has been erratic all year, with some big performances sprinkled in with a bunch of duds. QB Sam Howell has probably been better than what you might expect out of a mid-round pick, but that doesn’t mean he’s the long-term answer going forward. The team around him definitely doesn’t help with his development, especially that terrible offensive line. The Commanders are 31st in sacks allowed this season, letting up a whopping 4.6 per game on Howell, which is just nuts. It would be hard for anyone to be successful behind a line like that.
The defense has held its own for most of the season, but that could change after they traded away some of their best pass rushers. They rank seventh in the NFL in sacks per game, getting 3.2 on opposing QBs each contest. However, with Chase Young and Montez Sweat gone, that number will likely drop.
Which Dallas Team Shows Up?
This is another team that seems to have “Jekyll and Hyde” performances from week to week. They have won four of their last five games, but in the one game where they faced real competition, they faltered and lost to the Eagles. The good news for them is that they aren’t really facing a competitive team here, so maybe they will roll Washington like they have other bad teams.
Cowboys QB Dak Prescott and the offense have done a good job moving the chains and driving down the field. They rank second in the league in first downs gained per game with 22.6, and they also are ninth in yards per play. There has been a lot of negative talk about this offense, but they’ve actually been quite good across the board. They do struggle a bit in the red zone, ranking 18th, but should be able to move the ball up and down the field against Washington.
Defensively, this has been one of the best units in the NFL. They rank second in several important categories, including third-down conversion percentage allowed, first downs allowed and passing yards allowed. They have been dominant this season, and only really struggle in the red zone, where they rank 22nd.
Leaning towards Cowboys
I haven’t bet on this game yet, but it’s hard not to back the Cowboys in this one. They are the far superior team and have been playing much better football as of late. Plus, Thanksgiving is notorious for large favorites covering the spread. The public feasts on Thanksgiving historically.
