Top Prop, Finish Bets for Formula 1 U.S. Grand Prix

With this weekend's United States Grand Prix quickly approaching, we look at bets to make, and which drivers could shock the field and finish in the points.

Two weeks ago, the Qatar Grand Prix ended with Max Verstappen as world champion, on a second-place result in a sprint race. It was a somewhat shocking result in which rookie Oscar Piastri defeated him for his first race win. This exciting performance was just the latest in a long line of impressive results from a McLaren team. They are showing no signs of slowing down heading into the American leg of races.

Verstappen cleaned up in the race however, taking first place by an admittedly thin margin. This was due in large part to an unusually bad course for tire management. It required each driver to pit a minimum of three times. The rule change that capped the amount of laps that were allowed on each set of tires was a temporary one, just put in place for the race in Qatar. The next races will not suffer from the same restrictions.

The next month will feature four races in the Americas, starting with this weekend in Austin, Texas and ending a month from now at the inaugural Las Vegas Grand Prix. It will be a relatively grueling schedule, with three race weekends in a row on the calendar. Expect driver fatigue to begin to play a role in upcoming races.

(logo/link) New users can place a sports cash wager at Caesars Sportsbook of $10 or more and receive 1,000 Reward Credits, 1,000 Tier Credits AND if you lose the first real money bet you place, receive a Free Bet up to $1,250!

USGP Expectations

Moving into this race weekend, it’s another sprint race, meaning the drivers will all have only one practice session again leading up to the qualifying session. With a lack of time for live practice, the race results are anything but predictable. However, we’re going to try to direct your bets in the right direction for this weekend.

Verstappen emerged yet again as the obvious favorite to win this race, opening the betting at -400 odds at Caesars Sportsbook. He has won the last two races run here (2021 & 2022), making a three-peat likely to occur.

Outside of the winner, the Top 6 this race should be hotly contested. Charles Leclerc had a birthday this week, and looking at his performances after his birthday, he has not failed to finish in the Top 5 since 2018.  At -150 odds, he will be competing with fellow drivers from Mercedes, Red Bull, and McLaren.

The odds for Top 6 are as follows from Caesars:

  • Max Verstappen: -900
  • Lando Norris: -500
  • Oscar Piastri: -450
  • Sergio Perez: -300
  • Lewis Hamilton: -275
  • George Russell: -275
  • Charles Leclerc: -150
  • Carlos Sainz: -145
  • Fernando Alonso: +110

Any of these drivers would be compelling picks for the top 6, and should make for an exciting race on Sunday afternoon.

Homecoming for Sargeant

 The longest of long shots comes in the form of an American Williams driver, Logan Sargeant. He has consistently been the worst-performing driver on the racetrack, but this weekend will be his first race in America since Miami earlier this year (a race where he finished dead last). He has +1400 odds to finish in a points position, and while it is an incredibly unlikely outcome, this would be the race to make that happen.

Another outcome, and one with much shorter odds, is that Sargeant doesn’t finish the race. BetRivers has those odds at a mere +315, Judging by his three DNF’s in his last five races (including two in a row), that might be a more compelling bet to take.


BetRivers Sportsbook (@BetRivers) / X

Make your first-time deposit with BetRivers in West Virginia and Pennsylvania and place your first sports wager. If your first wager loses, receive a Free Bet, equal to your stake, up to a maximum of $250. Free Bet will be awarded within 24 Hours of your qualifying wager settling as a loss.


Whacky Props

For a more exciting look at the race, consider Caesars prop “Race Winner Without Fav,” where the odds to win are laid out without Max Verstappen being included. With the shortest odds sitting with McLaren driver Lando Norris at +260, there is more money to be made with the right bet.

If you’re less concerned about who wins the race, and more concerned about how dominant the winner is, the Over/Under is 12.5 seconds. Last year, Verstappen won the race with a lead of under six seconds, but he comes into this race with the most dominant car in recent memory.

Car Upgrades

Two teams are bringing upgrade packages into the race in Austin this weekend: Mercedes and Haas. Both teams’ upgrades are meant more to test the early developments for next year’s car. They do offer a small upgrade for the last few races of this year as well.

The more intriguing prospect of the two is a Mercedes team that has already looked incredibly fast in recent weeks, keeping pace with their rivals at McLaren and Ferrari. This upgrade will reportedly give them an extra tenth of a second of speed per lap. That may not sound like much, but in a sport where every millisecond matters, that could well be the difference that gives one or both of the drivers a podium position. With a major crash at the first turn of the first lap during the race in Qatar, look for both Mercedes drivers to make an impact this weekend.

The American-owned team Haas is down in the championship. Either driver, Kevin Magnussen or Nico Hulkenburg, could be interesting bets for a surprise Top 10 result.


BetMGM | LinkedInNew customers at BetMGM start with a first-bet offer, up to $1000. Simply sign up, make a deposit and place your first wager. If the bet loses, customers receive the amount of their wager back automatically in Bonus bets.


 

Related Articles

Subscribe to Newsletter

Sign up to receive the latest online gaming and sports betting promotions, news, and information.

History Playbook

On This Day In Sports History

August 7, 1992 — A group of investors from the Tampa Bay area announces they have signed a memorandum to purchase the San Francisco Giants and plan to move the franchise to St. Petersburg. The National League rejected the transfer in Nov. 1992.

On This Day In Sports History

August 9, 1936 — Korean native Sohn Kee-chung wins the Olympic marathon in Berlin. At the time, Korea is part of the Japanese colonial empire and Sohn must compete for Japan, under the transliterated Japanese colonial name Kitei Son.