After an exciting Week 10 with plenty of games coming down to the wire and upsets, NFL odds are out for Week 11. From the Green Bay Packers and Tennessee Titans on Thursday Night Football to a division game between the Chiefs and Chargers on Sunday Night Football, there are plenty of opportunities for parlays. Here are three potential parlays for this week.
Home Team Parlay
Bets: Tennessee Titans vs. Green Bay Packers -2.5 • Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers +4.5
Odds: +264 / Payout: $364.65 on a $100 bet (at BetMGM)
A win goes a long way in the NFL. The Green Bay Packers knocked off their former head coach Mike McCarthy on Sunday, and suddenly things aren’t as doom and gloom. Although Packers fans may reject the premise, they have been pretty good all season.
Green Bay has a top-10 total defense and ranks in the league’s top half in total offense. The emergence of wide receiver Christian Watson has stabilized the offense and rejuvenated hope that the Packers can make the most of Aaron Rodgers’s twilight years.
Their record doesn’t indicate it, but the Tennessee Titans are on the opposite end of the spectrum. Tennessee ranks dead last in total offense, with the 10th-worst total defense. The Packers are natural progression candidates, and the Titans won’t offer any resistance.
Somehow, T.J. Watt returned just nine weeks after a significant pec injury and subsequent knee operation, giving hope that the Pittsburgh Steelers can make a late-season push for the playoffs.
They started on the right foot in Week 10, holding the New Orleans Saints to 186 total yards. The Cincinnati Bengals are a much better team than the Saints, but they’ve struggled on the road. The Bengals per game yardage drops to 290.4 on the road compared to 345 as the host. That dichotomy will continue against a fierce Pittsburgh Steelers defense.
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Points on Points on Points
Bets: Cleveland Browns vs. Buffalo Bills Over 47 • Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers Over 49.5
Odds: +264 / Payout: $364.81 on a $100 bet (at BetMGM)
Nobody has had an answer for the Buffalo Bills’ offense this year. It’s not coming from a Cleveland Browns squad that couldn’t contain the Miami Dolphins last week and will be playing their second consecutive road game.
The Bills have the best-scoring offense at home and the underlying metrics to prop up ongoing success. The Browns have held their own offensively, posting the 10th-best scoring offense and the fifth-most yards. Points should flow naturally in this AFC matchup.
The Chargers’ scoring has taken a hit over the past few weeks, and I expect a more robust effort from them at home against the Chiefs. Kansas City ranks in the middle of the pack in total defense and has been susceptible through the air, allowing the eighth-most passing yards in the league.
Mike Williams and Keenan Allen returning in Week 11 would go a long way to help this one go over the total, but I trust Justin Herbert and Joshua Palmer to gain yards without them.
Lowly Underdog Combination
Bets: Las Vegas Raiders +125 vs. Denver Broncos • Detroit Lions +155 vs. New York Giants
Odds: +473 / Payout: $573.75 on a $100 bet
Things haven’t gone well for the Las Vegas Raiders this season. The Indianapolis Colts humbled Derek Carr and company on Sunday, but the Raiders have been better on the road than at home this season. Las Vegas’s metrics improve as the visitors, with the team compiling more yards and allowing fewer.
Despite the improved metrics, the Raiders are still looking for their first road win. That should come against a Denver Broncos squad that has been one of the worst offensive units in the league. Denver averages 14.6 points per game, which has dropped to 13.3 over their last three. If either team reaches 17 points, it would be a minor miracle, but the Raiders are the team to back in this inter-divisional battle.
I am taking a stance against the New York Giants for the second week in a row. New York’s underlying metrics are incompatible with their 7-2 record. The Giants were outgained by the Houston Texans on Sunday, needing two turnovers to help them secure the win.
They rank in the league’s bottom half in total offense and defense, with -0.75 net yards per play. The Detroit Lion’s offense has been one of the best in the NFL, accumulating the ninth-most points and sixth-most yards. Although their defense has been ineffective, the Giants don’t have an imposing offense. Wins are piling up for the Lions, and I like that trend to continue in Week 11.
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