No, we didn’t miss it. No, we didn’t forget. It’s one of those weeks where we have one of our favorite trends popping up for the first time this season: the—all together now—Service Academy Under!
And yet… we’re staying away from Navy and Air Force because that usual trusty wager—which has hit more than 81 percent of the time since 2005—doesn’t have the same cache it usually does. First, Air Force (1-3) is awful this season, having scored 29 points in three weeks: losses to Baylor, San Jose State and Wyoming.
Second, Navy (4-0) is good. Very good. And since when did the Midshipmen channel/borrow/steal their nuclear submarine cells? They are not only 4-0 to the Over this season, but are piling up the points in the process. Navy is averaging 46 points a game.
So, with that former gimme gone, we’re looking for value elsewhere.
Last week: 2-1; Season, 4-8.
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There’s No Holding These Tigers
In the spring and summer, this was the ACC’s marquee game, one with storylines ranging from possible playoff implications to Florida State QB D.J. Uiagaleili’s grudge match against his former team, twice removed.
Well, instead, let’s count the things removed from this game. Suspense, since Florida State is 1-4, hasn’t scored more than 14 points a game at home and hasn’t broken 20 this season. The revenge factor, since Uiagaleili broke his finger and is expected to miss several games, according to ESPN. Not that the Seminoles are missing much, considering the former Clemson and Oregon State passer has a 34.4 QB rating, with four TDs and six INTs on a 53.8% completion rate.
This leaves the Florida State offense in the hands of Brock Glenn, last seen going 0-for-4 in relief during the Seminoles’ 42-16 loss to SMU. And yes, that was Glenn starting in last year’s ACC title game against Louisville—and in Florida State’s 63-3 poleaxing by Georgia in the Orange Bowl. He was a combined 17-for-47 for 194 yards.
Facing this is a Clemson team that found its footing after an opening 34-3 loss to Georgia. A Clemson team guided by QB Cade Klubnak, who has 12 TDs to two INTs, while piloting an offense averaging 7.2 yards a play. And a Clemson team that has won three straight in Tallahassee, is 3-1 ATS (as a double-digit favorite in the three wins) and is somehow only a two-TD favorite. This may not be a marquee matchup, but it offers marquee value on the Tigers.
Best Bet: Clemson -14.5 (-110 at Bet365)
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Nor Is There Holding These Tigers
You’re looking at one of two games this week where a top-10-ranked team is a road underdog, which is where Missouri finds itself. The Tigers are 4-0, but you wouldn’t know it by their two-spot drop in the polls. Some of that came courtesy of a bye week. But much of that came courtesy of two uninspiring victories: 27-21 over Boston College and 30-27 over Vanderbilt. In neither game were the Tigers close to covering: as 14.5-point favorites and 17.5-point favorites, respectively.
So let’s see how Missouri does as an underdog.
We’re expecting rather well, even going on the road for the first time this season. QB Brady Cook leads a Missouri offense that is completing 71.5% of its passes (eight in FBS). Somehow, the Tigers are rolling up the yards despite future NFL first-round pick Luther Burden nowhere among the top-50 receivers and current leading receiver Theo Weese without a touchdown catch.
Yes, this is where RB Nate Noel (441 yards, two TDs) and a balanced rushing attack comes in; Missouri is averaging 206.5 yards on the ground per game. It’s also where a defense that is top-six or better in four offensive categories: passing yards allowed (5th), passing attempts (4th), completions (3rd) and completion percentage (6th) comes in.
Texas A&M simply doesn’t have the firepower to keep up with any of this. Missouri is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games and 5-2 ATS in College Station. A&M, meanwhile, is 1-7 ATS in its last eight and 0-3 ATS at home this season. This is anything but uninspiring for bettors seeking value.
Best Bet: Missouri +2 (-110 at Caesars)
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Miami-Cal And College GameDay
Telegraph Street and Top Dog, here comes your close-up. Gourmet Ghetto and People’s Park, here comes the love. For the first time ever, ESPN’s “College GameDay” is coming to Berkeley, riding the wave of a scintillating social media campaign called “Calgorithm” that took over Twitter/X with a clever blizzard of snark that captured college football fans and semi-fans throughout the nation.
That pending close-up on one of America’s great college towns turns its focus to a Cal team that is 3-1, allowing only 12.8 points a game (12th) and leads the nation in interceptions (10, or 2.5 per game). The Bears already punked SEC foe Auburn and should have taken down Florida State in Tallahassee, but went 0-for-6 in the red zone in the second half. That came courtesy of six second-half sacks, which illustrates something Cal fans would prefer ESPN doesn’t focus on. …
That would be an inconsistent offense. The Bears aren’t in the top 30 in any offensive category, ranking 83rd in yards per game, 99th in points per game, an eye-watering 129th in penalties and a eye-popping 131st in sacks. Opposing rushers put Cal QB Fernando Mendoza on his back an average of four times a game.
Now, enter Miami QB Cameron Ward (1,782 yards, 18 TDs, four INTs), who is well acquainted with the Bears, having averaged 348.5 yards passing against them in his previous starts against them when he was at Washington State.
According to the Action Network, Miami hasn’t won a game in the Pacific Time Zone since 1994, when the Hurricanes beat Arizona State. Since 2005, Miami has played one game in that time zone—a 24-17 loss to Cal in 2008.
It’s been a long time since the Hurricanes planted their flag on the West Coast. It’s been forever since Berkeley got it’s college football close-up. Both streaks end Saturday.
Best Bet; Miami -10.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
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