Last week, we welcomed bowl season by paying attention to games and players you usually don’t pay attention to. But with the College Football Playoff commencing with four first-round games, some of the familiar bluebloods have our attention during the second week of our bowl previews.
And they have our attention with a couple of total bets.
Meanwhile, we have a familiar face checking in for the one non-CFP game where we found value and opportunity.
Gator Bait in the Gasparilla Bowl
Savvy readers of the Gridiron Guru remember bowl season two years ago when he shorted Florida in its Las Vegas Bowl game against Oregon State. That couldn’t have been easier money when the Beavers rolled to a 30-3 curb-stomping of a depleted Florida team.
However, flexibility meets opportunity here. We’re going to live dangerously and climb on the Gators’ back for their Gasparilla Bowl outing against Tulane.
Why are we flexing the Gators, who haven’t been SEC relevant in more than a decade and were on the verge of running off their seventh coach since 2010? Because while nobody outside of Gainesville was paying attention, Florida quietly went 8-1 ATS in its last nine games. This includes home victories against LSU and Mississippi, along with a beat-down of arch-rival Florida State to end the regular season.
Even accepting that Florida State was historically bad, in the process of this flourish, the Gators not only saved Billy Napier’s job, they unveiled the latest wunderkind QB in the SEC—DJ Langway. The true freshman, who took over for the injured Graham Mertz, threw for 1,610 yards and 11 TDs. His scrambling ability (97 yards) and defined arm strength turned Florida’s season around after a 3-3 start and propelled the Gators to four wins in their last six games.
As for Tulane, it enjoyed its third straight AAC championship game appearance and third consecutive nine-win season. Alas, the Green Wave won’t enjoy the services of QB Darian Mensah, he of the 2,723 yards, 22 TDs, and only six INTs. Mensah entered the transfer portal.
That dumps the offensive burden on RB Makhi Hughes (1,372 yards, 15 TDs), who finished second in the AAC in yards and touchdowns. He cracked 100 yards in five of the Green Wave’s eight conference games.
The yards are there for Hughes; Florida’s run defense is a middling 80th in yards per game (156.2) and 91st in total yards (392.2). But who else will pick up the slack?
You—at the window.
Best Bet: Florida -13 (-110 at BetMGM)
Volunteering for This Under
This playoff game provides a perfect example of the immovable force meeting … the immovable force. And which immovable force will prevail?
Will it be Tennessee? The Volunteers are fourth in total defense (278.3 yards per game) and tied for fourth in scoring defense (13.9 points per game). They are No. 1 in Expected Points Added per rush and No. 4 in EPA per dropback. They boast one of the most feral defensive linemen in the country in DE James Pearce Jr. (11 tackles for loss, 7 ½ sacks) and are going up against an Ohio State offensive line missing LT Josh Simmons for the season and Rimington Trophy winner Seth McLaughlin to a torn Achilles.
This largely explains why the Buckeyes managed only 10 points and averaged 3.0 yards per carry the last time we saw them, in that horrendous 13-10 loss to 19.5-point underdog Michigan.
Or will the immovable object be Ohio State? As good as Tennessee’s defense is, Ohio State’s is better. The Buckeyes own the best scoring defense (10.9 points per game), the No. 1 defense in yards allowed (241.1), the No. 2 defense in yards per play (4.1), No 3 in EPA per rush and EPA per dropback and No. 3 in yards per completion. All told, Ohio State is top 10 in eight defensive categories, which explains how only unbeaten Oregon has scored more than 17 points on the Buckeyes.
This is a defense that figures to give Tennessee freshman QB Nico Iamaleva migraines. Bettors, however, have the perfect aspirin that—tempting as it may be—isn’t taking the Vols and the 7 ½ points they’re somehow getting here. We’re betting the immovable force wins out. Both ways.
Best Bet: Under 46.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
Riding the Pony Express
Now, we flip the page to the manic half of the manic-depressive playoff picture: SMU at Penn State, one of the most intriguing first-round games in the College Football Playoff.
Both of these teams score points. In bunches. Penn State averages 33.6 points a game. The Nittany Lions have scored 35 or more in four of its last five games, including the 45-37 Big 10 Championship loss to Oregon, and are averaging nearly seven yards a play. That’s seventh in the country.
And SMU may be even better, at least on paper. Behind QB Kevin Jennings (3,050 yards, 22 TDs, eight INTs) and RB Brashard Smith (1,270 yards, 14 TDs), the Mustangs average 38.5 points per game, which is sixth in the nation. Only BYU in its 18-15 victory held SMU under 28 points—and that came in the beginning of September.
Say what you will about whether the 11th-seeded Mustangs belong in the 12-team CFP—and the SEC Cartel hasn’t shut up about it—but they’ve answered every challenge and checked every box—even in a three-point loss to Clemson in the ACC title game. Yes, SMU’s two losses are by a combined six points.
Where this gets interesting is Penn State’s schizophrenia. It lost to Oregon and Ohio State by one score each (eight points to Oregon, seven to Ohio State). But it didn’t come close to covering in squeakers against USC (three points), Minnesota (one) and—Bowling Green (seven).
We’re not sure what to make of that, or Penn State coach James Franklin’s well-earned reputation for rake-steps in big games. But that opens up two opportunities in what should be an entertaining game.
Best Bet: Either SMU +8 or better (-110) or Over-54.5 (-105, both at BetMGM)
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