The burning question coming into Saturday’s UEFA Champions League final between Arsenal and Paris St.-Germain isn’t one of talent. Because you don’t get to the pinnacle of European club soccer without talent coming at you on an endless conga line.
The talent, which both these teams have in waves, is there. It has to be, considering what it takes to win Europe’s biggest club tournament. Here’s a quick primer: The Champions League is a nine-month-long tournament featuring the best clubs in Europe. It starts with a round-robin group phase before segueing into a two-leg knockout phase. That, in turn, leads to the one-game final, which is Saturday in Budapest.
It is regularly the third-most watched soccer tournament in the world, trailing only the World Cup and the European Championships. And its importance among European club soccer is magnified, because a team’s chances of playing European football often play a role in the construction of that team. Free agents often are drawn to teams that qualify for the Champions League, and those clubs that qualify have more money to attract top talent, because of the lucrative payouts Champions League qualifiers make.
Money, Money, Money
How lucrative? The total purse for this season’s Champions League was €2.467 billion ($2.88 billion). The winner of Saturday’s game will take home €25 million ($27.8 million) just for that game. That doesn’t count the wins and draws throughout the various stages that will push the champion’s windfall to either €80.3 million/$93.9 million for Arsenal or €67.8 million/$79.6 million for PSG.
Any way you translate this, it’s a big, big deal for clubs.
The housekeeping done, let’s break down what we have here and understand that there is an emotional component that plays as big—or bigger—part in determining who will be the kings of European club soccer. And while talent is important—and, as we’ve said and will elaborate on—a given here, it’s important to see where these teams are health-wise and emotion-wise.
Match Ups
Arsenal comes into Budapest literally and figuratively floating on air. After three consecutive runners-up finishes in the Premier League, the Gunners finally broke through with their first league title in 22 years. The “Almost Team” became the “Arrived Team,” and the partying in North London after the Gunners clinched last Wednesday lasted into the very wee hours of Thursday morning.
PSG, meanwhile, comes in as the defending Champions League titleholders. It dismantled Inter Milan, 5-0 in last year’s final, and followed that with a clinical march to its fifth consecutive Ligue 1 title. It tied a bow on its 12th title in 14 seasons more than two weeks ago by dispatching its closest rival, Lens, 2-0.
Advantage, PSG. When it comes to emotional levels in a game like this, ritual beats retro.
What about that talent we know these two have?
Arsenal is one of the best defensive teams in Europe, a team that prevented six of its Premier League opponents from having a shot on target, kept the most clean sheets (19), and conceded the fewest expected goals (xG) (28.5).
But wait. There’s more. The Gunners’ averages for game goals conceded (0.7), shots on target faced (2.4), shots faced per game (8.2), and expected goals against (0.7) were the lowest totals among Europe’s top five leagues.
The Gunners are also a set-piece machine—emphasis on “machine.” Arsenal scored 25 set-piece goals in the Premier League this season (excluding penalties), the highest total in the league. Meanwhile, the Gunners scored 19 goals from corner kicks—a league record for goals scored from corners in a single season.
With seven players 6-feet-2 or taller, Arsenal is an ever-present threat to bury corners from all corners of the penalty area.
Coach Control
So what got PSG to the cusp of a Champions League title defense? Balanced scoring, stout defense, and the tactical and man-management brilliance of Luis Enrique. Eighteen players found the back of the net for PSG this season, good for 74 goals. Meanwhile, it has allowed only 29 goals—a +45 goal difference.
Enrique’s relentless press not only helps them control possession, but also defines total football. Fullbacks attack, midfielders defend, and players fill spaces seamlessly. The press makes it difficult for even the most talented attacking teams to build—or sustain—any momentum.
Now, another intangible. Rest also gives PSG an edge here. It’s much easier on the psyche and the legs to win a Ligue 1 title than it is to navigate the endless minefields of the Premier League. To give you an idea of the competitive disparity, all you had to do was look at Arsenal’s penultimate game against Burnley and its park-the-bus methods, where the Gunners struggled to a brutal, 1-0 victory that was borderline unwatchable.
Oh, and here’s where we mention you won’t be able to watch Arsenal-Burnley next year. Not after Burnley finished a woeful, relegation-bait 19th and will play next year in the second-tier Championship League.
That illustrates the Premier League’s top-to-bottom depth. According to Opta’s power rankings, Burnley is better than nine other Ligue 1 teams. Even relegation bait is a bait-and-switch problem for Premier League teams.
This plays into PSG’s legs as well, because it allows Enrique to rotate his players more, keeping them fresh. According to The Athletic, only four of the 11 PSG players who played more than 50 percent of the Champions League minutes did the same in Ligue 1. Arsenal Manager Mikael Arteta counts seven in both categories.
All of this reluctantly leads us to shelve our Arsenal fanboy status and wager on PSG being only the second team in the modern Champions League era (behind Real Madrid in 2016, ’17, and ’18) to repeat. There are several bets we like:
- PSG to win in regulation (+125 at BetMGM)
- PSG to win with Over 2.5 goals scored (+375 at BetMGM)
- A two-leg parlay: PSG to win in regulation and both teams to score with either team to win (+333 at BetMGM)
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