One week into the NFL season, it’s time to monitor the first fired head coach market. Dan Quinn from the Washington Commanders is the favorite to go first at +150 odds, followed by Todd Bowles (+350) from the Tampa Bay Bucs, Dave Canales (+550) from the Carolina Panthers, and Aaron Glenn (+700) from the New York Jets.
Two head coaches were fired in the middle of last season. The Tennessee Titans axed Brian Callahan in mid-October after a 1-5 start, and the New York Giants dumped Brian Daboll in mid-November after a dismal 2-8 record. At least three coaches were let go in the middle of the previous two seasons in 2023 and 2024.
Dan Quinn (Commanders) +150
After a sensational 12-5 debut with the Commanders in 2024, Quinn followed up the best season of his coaching career with a 5-12 dud last season.
Quinn hired two new coordinators without head coaching experience this offseason. Insurance against a midseason firing? Paranoid for sure, but this is power-hungry Washington, D.C., where job security is a full-time obsession.
The Commanders put up a good fight against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 1, losing by only two points. In their last 17 games under Quinn, the Commanders slipped to 4-13. One of those wins came against the Eagles’ backups in Week 18 of last season’s finale.
Todd Bowles (Bucs) +350
After three straight NFC South titles and playoff appearances under Bowles, the Bucs collapsed late last season to finish 8-9.
Bowles fired five assistant coaches, including offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard. Baker Mayfield signed a contract extension, but enters 2026 with his fourth OC in four seasons.
The Bucs remain the consensus NFC South favorite even though their odds slipped from +200 to +165 after an ugly Week 1 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bucs’ undisciplined defense played shoddily, the offensive line allowed four sacks, and they fumbled four times, including three from Mayfield.
With six non-divisional games slated at the start of the season, Bowles might get fired before Week 7 if they have a losing record.
If the front office hesitates to fire Bowles during the season, it’s because the inexperienced staff lacks a viable interim replacement.
Dave Canales (Panthers) +550
After a Week 1 loss, the Panthers dropped to 4-7 in their last 11 games under Dave Canales.
The Panthers open as a slight road favorite against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 2. Except for the Cleveland Browns in Week 3, the Panthers face a tough schedule the rest of the season.
If the Panthers lose to the Falcons and Browns to start the season 0-3, cantankerous team owner David Tepper could fire Canales.
An early bye in Week 5 offers the Panthers a window to install a new head coach. Well-respected defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero would be a prime candidate for interim head coach.
Aaron Glenn (Jets) +700
The season had yet to begin before team owner Woody Johnson hinted that he’d like to hire Mike Tomlin as the head coach and bring in quarterback Lamar Jackson next season. It’s an ominous sign that your coach is on the hot seat when the owner has doubts before Week 1. That’s why Glenn is the fourth favorite to get fired.
Glenn went 3-14 in his rookie head coaching debut last season. Hiring the former Jets star cornerback felt like another nostalgia play for a demoralized franchise that could have used a veteran coach with a postseason pedigree.
The Jets and Geno Smith looked sharp in a Week 1 win over the Titans, but beating up a lousy opponent won’t erase the skepticism.
A four-week stretch beginning in mid-October includes the Browns, Miami Dolphins, and Las Vegas Raiders. If the Jets falter against those bottom feeders, Glenn could get fired after Week 8. Offensive coordinator Frank Reich has plenty of head coaching experience, so he’s a viable option to take over if the Jets fire Glenn.
Shane Steichen (Colts) +1000
The Colts hired Shane Steichen to turn around the franchise; they have zero postseason appearances since he took over in 2023. The Colts are desperate to end a six-year postseason drought and have not secured a playoff victory game since the 2018 season. Steichen needs to qualify for the playoffs this season to save his job.
The Colts shocked everyone in the first half of last season with an 8-2 start. Then reality sank in, and the team collapsed, ending the season with a seven-game losing streak. Quarterback Daniel Jones went down with a torn Achilles, and the Colts missed the playoffs with an 8-9 record.
The Colts were dominated by the Baltimore Ravens in a Week 1 blowout. According to look-ahead lines, the Colts are a betting favorite in just one game in the first nine weeks of the season. A divisional loss against the Titans in Week 6 could mark the end of Steichen’s reign.
Long Shot: Dan Campbell (Lions) +3500
Missing the playoffs in consecutive seasons could jeopardize Dan Campbell’s job. But is there a scenario in which he gets fired earlier in the season? It’s doubtful, which is why he’s a long shot at +3500 odds.
The Lions’ narrow victory in Week 1 is a tremendous concern. They blew a 21-0 lead against the New Orleans Saints, who rallied back and forced overtime. Campbell’s squad escaped with a one-point victory when the Saints failed to convert a game-winning two-point conversion in OT.
The Lions began the season as the betting favorite to win the NFC North thanks to one of the easiest schedules in the league. The Lions should start 4-1. If their defense continues to play poorly and they have a losing record, then Campbell could get fired in early October, especially if they lose to the Jets and Arizona Cardinals.
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