We’ll give Ohio State and Texas this. They earned their money last week. Especially Arch Manning, who may have picked up the Heisman Trophy support he lost the last time these two teams played.
Manning’s stellar fourth quarter, when he rallied the Longhorns from down 23-3 to a 24-23 victory, is the season’s early indelible image.
This week’s chaser to that instant classic takes place two states over from Texas, where No. 7 LSU visits No. 8 Ole Miss in a game that will test Ole Miss’ ability to prove that eternal saying: “Revenge is a dish best tasted cold.”
Last week: 1-2. Season: 3-3.
The Kiffin Bowl
Yeah, we’ll start here. Rankings, marquee status and, yes, the pesky Lane Kiffin effect all mandate it. When you suck all the oxygen out of the college football atmosphere for two months on a will-he or won’t-he Hamlet ride—like Kiffin did when he left Ole Miss for LSU and took numerous players and assistant coaches with him—well, you leave a wake that is hard to ignore.
What else is hard to ignore are these two teams: LSU and Ole Miss meet as top-10 teams for the first time since 1962. And it’s hard to ignore these two scoring points. Lots and lots of points. LSU comes into the Kiffin Bowl (sorry, couldn’t resist) averaging 47 points and 586 yards a game, while converting nearly 58 percent of their third-down attempts. The Rebels? They’re good for 41 and 454—and a mere 35 percent.
Ole Miss has perhaps this game’s biggest weapon in QB Trinidad Chambliss, who led the Rebels to a 24-19 victory last year via 385 total yards and is a legitimate Heisman candidate. RB Kewan Lacy gives Ole Miss another weapon. According to VSiN, Ole Miss benefits from an 11-2 SU/12-1 ATS trend for home teams in this rivalry.
And yet … LSU is clearly the better pick. The Tigers bring in the nation’s best defense (142 yards allowed per game). They’ve forced 12 sacks, again No. 1 in the country. Combine that with their superior third-down percentage, the multi-talented Sam Leavitt at QB, and the fact that VSiN notes LSU is 17-9 SU and 15-9 ATS when confronting the revenge factor, and it’s hard to hold these Tigers back. Especially at this number.
Best Bet: LSU -3 (-108 at BetMGM)
Belichick, Heels Play the Heel Here
Yes, Bill Belichick is still here. And yes, he’s still relevant as North Carolina’s head coach. Really.
Before we explain why this matters, let’s explore why we’re backing Belichick’s Tar Heels against one of the sport’s bluebloods—even as we point out that Clemson has beaten North Carolina seven consecutive times, and even as we point out the Tar Heels haven’t won in Death Valley since 1997. To show you how far in the Wayback Machine that was, in 1997, Belichick was serving as Bill Parcells’ defensive coordinator with the New York Jets.
After last year’s 3-9 atrocity, Belichick has the Tar Heels playing what you’d recognize as “Belichick Football.” With offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino (remember him?) at the controls, they’re averaging 24 points and nearly 375 yards of offense. They’re converting 40 percent of their third-down opportunities. And they’re opportunistic defensively, carrying a plus-one turnover margin.
But the main reason we like North Carolina is, well, Clemson. The Tigers are playing like paper tigers—despite being the better team on paper. Now, they’re relegated to playing true freshman Tait Reynolds at QB after starter Christian Vizzina—who barely beat out Reynolds for the starting job in the summer—hurt his elbow in last week’s 22-7 victory over the Sun Belt Conference’s Georgia Southern.
Let’s sum this up. You’re getting the defensive genius of Bill Belichick unleashed against a freshman QB making his first college start for a team that’s clearly wobbling. And you’re getting this with three and the hook. As long as this spread doesn’t go below a field goal, believe in Belichick.
Best Bet: North Carolina +3.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
It’s a Cardinals’ Sin to Avoid Louisville
Have we mentioned lately that we like Louisville? Even with their No. 23 ranking, the Cardinals are a wonderful under-the-radar team. One that we cashed in on in their opener two weeks ago against the aforementioned Ole Miss?
We like Louisville more, now that QB Lincoln Kienholz is running Jeff Brohm’s offense. The Ohio State ex-pat has 639 passing yards, 111 rushing yards, and seven TDs in three halves of football. Kienholz and his 142.4 passer rating illustrate he’s the QB Brohm has been looking for since arriving at Louisville. That he’s doing this against the 11th toughest schedule makes us like them even more.
All that said, your first inclination may be to bet SMU. You like the Mustangs’ do-everything QB Kevin Jennings (767 yards, eight TDs, you’re a fan of SMU’s rise into a playoff team, and you remember last year’s 38-6 thrashing of the Cardinals.
We don’t like the fact that Jennings’ chief weakness is his decision-making; he threw 13 interceptions last season, including two pick-sixes against Penn State in the playoff. We especially don’t like that against a consistent and disciplined Louisville bend-but-don’t-break defense. You could give the 1.5 points, but the Moneyline offers better value.
Best Bet: Louisville on the Moneyline (-115 at BetMGM)
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