When we last left the crazy quilt of college football 2026, we suffered one of our worst beats of the season: Utah scoring late to beat Houston. With Utah leading 14-13 and the Cougars on offense, Utes’ lineman Jackson Bennee sacked Houston QB Conner Weigman, forcing a fumble that Jireh Moe recovered on the Cougars’ 9-yard-line. Utah QB Devon Dampier scored on the next play.
Just like that, Houston +6.5 evaporated. Again, we’re not throwing it back.
And that’s the key to college football, or any handicapping. Do your homework, understand what teams have—and don’t have—and make educated, value-based wagers accordingly.
Like this week.
Two weeks ago: 1-2. Season: 10-14.
The Miami-Notre Dame Drama Returns
Two generations ago, this rivalry had more drama than a Greek tragedy. And how many Greek tragedies sparked not only T-shirt best-sellers featuring the caption “Catholics vs. Convicts,” but ESPN documentaries?
Yes, ESPN’s “College Game Day” is dutifully in South Bend this week. But now, this rivalry is more NPR than ESPN: two re-ascendant programs who are far more likely to sound Shakespearean discussing the other than gangsta rap.
No matter. The No. 1-ranked Hurricanes and No. 4 Notre Dame are expected to put on a show worthy of the Old Globe. Start with Miami, which takes the stage behind leading man and QB Darian Mensah (2,425 yards, 25 TDs, one INT). He leads the No. 1-ranked scoring offense (47.6 ppg) and No. 2 total offense (535 ypg), with a supporting cast led by sophomore WR Malachi Toney (73 catches, 1,027 yards, 13 TDs). The Hurricanes’ offense ranks top 10 in eight offensive categories and has put up 38 points in five consecutive games.
That’s the immovable object meeting the irresistible force: Notre Dame’s No. 1-ranked defense, one allowing only 13.4 points and 236 yards a game. The Irish are ranked in the top 10 in five defensive categories, most notably passing yards allowed (6th/150).
And Notre Dame has its own offensive response: QB C.J. Carr, who has 10 TDs and one interception in his last three games. Now, he gets unleashed against a Miami defense that has surrendered 300-plus yards passing in three consecutive games.
We have no doubt Notre Dame can win straight up; the Irish have won three straight in South Bend since 1984 and need this signature victory after losing to BYU three weeks ago. But getting a touchdown with Mensah and Co.? There’s no drama there.
Best Bet: Miami +6.5 (-108 at BetMGM)
Can UCLA Avoid This Gopher Hole?
Savvy readers of the Gridiron Guru, especially those living on the West Coast, will note the general absence of UCLA among our picks. That’s not a coincidence; before this year, the Bruins were one of the most schizophrenic teams in college football. Betting on or against them invited equal amounts of hair-pulling frustration and head-shaking amazement at your stupidity.
No more. Under first-year coach Bob Chesney, the Bruins are 8-0, ranked No. 8, and have won seven of their eight games by double-digits. They’re riding a defense allowing barely 13 points a game (sixth), 4.2 yards per play (third) and 261 yards per game (seventh) into Minnesota. UCLA has allowed seven points per game in its last five games and held its last three opponents (Nevada, Michigan State and Wisconsin) to a combined 17 points.
Backup QB Ty Dieffenbach has been the picture of efficiency since taking over from Nico Iamaleava and his torn ACL four games ago against Oregon. In between getting RB Wayne Knight (680 yards, 12 TDs) involved, Dieffenbach has thrown for 683 yards and three TDs to one INT.
Dieffenbach isn’t going to light up a stat sheet. But with the Bruins’ defense facing a Minnesota offense ranked 125th or worse in six offensive categories, one that struggles to sustain drives—much less put up points—he doesn’t have to.
Yes, Minnesota held both Michigan and Iowa in check. But who’s bragging about those two offenses? Yes, the Gophers are a covering machine, going 6-2 ATS this season, including last week’s 23-16 nail-biter against Indiana. But UCLA is 8-0 ATS this season and like the Minnesota offense, we have no answers for how it’s expected to cover here.
Best Bet: UCLA -5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Our Favorite Betting Trend Returns
Lookie here! We’re back with one of our favorite wagering angles: the SERVICE ACADEMY UNDER! And lookie here! Air Force and Army have gone Under the last seven meetings at Michie Stadium.
And lookie here! We’re treading very lightly with this one, because there are defensive issues for both the Falcons and the Black Knights. Especially Army, which is 110th in yards allowed (396.5), 125th in yards per rush (5.1), and a horrific 130th in yards per play (6.6). This is the defense awaiting Air Force’s No. 2-ranked rushing offense (341 yards per game).
But there’s a reason that despite Air Force’s 6-2 record, Army is favored. Actually, several, but we’ll hone in on the fact that Army turns the No. 1 rushing yardage (342 ypg) and No. 1 yards per rush (6.4) team loose against a Falcons defense ranked 104th against the rush. The Black Knights average nearly 34 points a game, despite having one of the worst passing offenses in the country.
So what does this mean? As noted, it’s a tricky one, because Army is 7-3 to the Over in its last 10 games, hitting the Over in nine of its last 13 (a 32 percent ROI). Air Force, meanwhile, is an unpredictable 5-5, going Under in four of its last six away games (27 percent ROI).
But we can’t resist a running clock, running teams, bad passing offenses, and jumping in on a total that shrank a full touchdown (from 52.5 to 45.5) sooner rather than later.
Best Bet: Under-45.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
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