What’s happening to the Kentucky Derby we got to know and (sort of) love? Where are all the longshots coming from?
The last two years, we’ve seen Derby conventional wisdom flipped on its ear. Two closers, two longshot closers—Rich Strike (80-1) and Mage (15-1) found the Churchill Downs winner’s circle. This rendered unconventional the conventional wisdom that closers can’t close in the points era and that tactical, front-end speed wins America’s most important race.
In turn, that threw a wrench in one of the fundamental tactics of handicapping a 20-horse Kentucky Derby. Constructing your tickets begins with eliminating the horses who simply aren’t fast enough to win a 10-furlong, 20-horse free-for-all.
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With that, we’ll start you off with four horses you want to avoid:
Society Man. Given what Rich Strike did two years ago, stealing the Derby in the last 50 yards at 80-1, you’d be tempted to throw a few bucks on a horse that finished second in the Wood Memorial—at 106-1. You notice that his sire, Good Magic, produced last year’s Derby winner in Mage. And you’d be tempted to pounce. Let’s disabuse you of that notion. First off, Society Man isn’t a “man” in the equine sense; having endured the “ultimate equipment change.” Only three geldings have won the Derby this century: Mine that Bird (2009) and Funny Cide (2003). Before that, you have to go back to Clyde Van Dusen—in 1929. Second, Society Man is a closer in a race with far better members of that genus than he is. Third, the only reason he’s in the Derby field is courtesy of that freak-show Wood Memorial, which came with a pedestrian 38.13-second final three furlongs. Outside of that, he has a nondescript maiden special weight win and a third on the CV. Put it together and Society Man isn’t a high-society Derby contender.
T O Password: Someone’s gotta get the Japanese Derby spot through the Japanese Road to the Kentucky Derby. That someone wasn’t trendy pick Forever Young, who could actually win this race. It was this horse, who won both of his starts. Those were a maiden and a minor stakes race on the Japanese Derby trail. His final prep time in the 1,800-meter Fukurya Stakes, projected and converted to 1 1/8 miles, was a glacial 1:54.77. That included a 38.12-second projected final three furlongs and a 13.28-second projected final furlong. That final time will get him beat in this field by light years. Under Jon White’s eight-category Derby Strikes System, where horses are dinged strikes for not meeting certain criteria, T O Password flunks three of the eight categories: he didn’t race as a 2-year-old, he didn’t run a graded stakes race before March 31, and, ergo, didn’t win a graded stakes. Horses who haven’t run as a 2-year-old are 3-for-73 in the Derby and only four horses have won the Derby without running a graded stakes race before March 31.
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Dornoch: There is a school of thought that his mediocre fourth by 6 ½ lengths in his final prep: the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, was due to jockey Luis Saez easing him up in the stretch to save him for the Derby. Yeah, we’re not attending that school. Unlike his fellow Good Magic progeny, Society Man, Dornoch is a legit Triple Crown runner. The full brother to Mage is 3-2-0 in his six races and is the only horse to beat Sierra Leone, nosing him out in the Grade 2 Remsen. He then beat a weak field in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth by less than two lengths. But Dornoch is a front-running horse who needs to be in the lead to succeed. He never got closer than two lengths to the front in the Blue Grass and the results show themselves. There are plenty of speed horses in this field and Dornoch doesn’t have the pure speed to hold them all off.
Whatever horse draws Post 17: Yes, everyone connected with a Derby horse holds their breath, grabs their prayer beads and prays to the Equine Gods their horse doesn’t draw the dreaded rail. Yes, everyone can quote chapter-and-verse about the last horse to win the Derby from the rail—Ferdinand in 1986. But eight horses have won the Derby from Post 1. Zero have found the winner’s circle from Post 17. Horses starting from that post are 0-for-43. Almost as bad, they’re 3-for-43 hitting the board. Post 17 is the only post never sending a horse to the winner’s circle. Taking this further outside—another post you fear like a vengeful lover—two horses have won from Post 20, the far outside: Big Brown in 2008 and Rich Strike two years ago. One wore roses from Post 19: I’ll Have Another in 2012.
