Savvy bettors who target NFL win totals know they can typically find the best value at the bottom of the board. It takes a lot of intestinal fortitude to back a team that is projected to lose a dozen games. Yet, there’s usually one or two teams every season that exceed preseason expectations. Everyone thinks they’ll suck, yet they’ll post a winning record and even secure a trip to the playoffs.
The bar is usually so low with these teams that a surprise win or two earlier in the season thrusts them into the perfect position to pass their win total. If they can catch a break, avoid serious injuries, and win a divisional game at home late in the season, then you have a chance to look like a genius betting their Over.
Last season, the Houston Texans and Los Angeles Rams were projected to have a losing record with a win total of 6.5 O/U in 2023. Both teams surprised everyone with an identical 10-7 record.
So, who will be this year’s Texans and Rams? Let’s look at nine teams with the lowest projected win totals for 2024 and determine which ones will hit the over.
According to BetMGM, the three teams with the lowest win totals are the New England Patriots (4.5 O/U), Denver Broncos (5.5 O/U), and Carolina Panthers (5.5 O/U).
The next tier of teams has a win total of 6.5 O/U which includes the Las Vegas Raiders, Washington Commanders, Minnesota Vikings, Tennessee Titans, Arizona Cardinals, and New York Giants.
New England Patriots 4.5 O/U
The Patriots were the worst team in the AFC last season at 4-13 and they parted ways with the legendary Bill Belichick who clearly lost his luster ever since Tom Brady left the team after the 2020 season. The Patriots are rebuilding their team under rookie head coach and former player Jerod Mayo.
Second Chance Bet. Make your first deposit at BetRivers and place your first sports wager with real money. If your first wager loses, receive a Bonus Bet, equal to your stake, up to a maximum of $500. Bonus Bet will be awarded within 24 Hours of your qualifying wager settling as a loss.
The Patriots selected North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye in the draft, but Mac Jones started in the first preseason game. With their QB situation still unknown, the Patriots’ outlook seems grim in a stacked AFC East and the eighth-hardest schedule. It’s probably best to stay far away from the Patriots this season.
Carolina Panthers 5.5 O/U
The Panthers finished last season with the worst record in the NFL at 2-15. They opened this offseason at 4.5 O/U, but early money backed their Over and oddsmakers adjusted their win total to 5.5.
Even though the Panthers are a popular contrarian pick, we’re going to stay away from them. It’s wise to avoid betting on dysfunctional franchises, especially ones that fired head coaches in consecutive seasons with Matt Rhule in 2022 and Frank Reich after a 1-10 start in last season.
Bryce Young, the #1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, struggled in his first season in Carolina with a 2-14 record as a starter. The undersized former Alabama quarterback had very few offensive weapons around him and was protected by a shoddy offensive line, so fans are willing to give him one more season before they label him as a draft bust.
The Panthers hired rookie head coach Dave Canales, who had been a long-time assistant under Pete Carroll in Seattle. Canales spent last season as the offensive coordinator of the Tampa Bay Bucs before heading to Carolina.
The Panthers hired Canales because he had previous success with undersized quarterbacks like Russell Wilson in Seattle and Baker Mayfield in Tampa Bay. The Panthers’ success in 2024 will hinge upon the development of Young in his second season.
Denver Broncos 5.5 O/U
The Broncos miscalculated when they acquired Russell Wilson in a trade before the 2022 season. Wilson went 11-19 in 30 games as a starter in Denver, which was a huge disappointment considering he led the Seahawks to a winning record in his first nine seasons in the NFL. The Broncos finished 8-9 in 2023 and made a costly decision to part ways with Wilson.
After the Wilson experiment blew up in their faces, the Broncos are eager to move on. They selected Oregon quarterback Bo Nix with the #12 pick, and he has looked good in the preseason. Nix will be battling veteran quarterback Jarrett Stidham for the starting job.
Sign up at BetMGM and receive the Best Sportsbook offers Today!
If you want to compare head coaches among the three teams at the bottom of the board, it’s not much of a contest. Sean Payton led the 2009 New Orleans Saints to a Super Bowl victory, and he’s considered one of the best coaches in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Panthers and Patriots will have a rookie head coach on the sidelines this season.
BetMGM offers a prop bet on which team will have the worst record in the NFL this season. The Patriots are the favorite at +400 odds, followed by the Panthers at +600, and the Broncos at +700. Based on those odds, it seems like backing Payton and the Broncos to win more than 5.5 games is the way to go.
Washington Commanders 6.5 O/U
The Commanders went 6-11 last season and fired “Riverboat” Ron Rivera. They hired Dan Quinn as their new head coach, and he will attempt to lead the Commanders to their first playoff win in almost 20 years. Quinn had early success as the head coach of the Atlanta Falcons in the late 2010s, but he hasn’t been the same since they blew a 28-3 lead and lost to the Patriots in Super Bowl LI.
The Commanders rolled the dice with LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels as the #2 pick in the draft. Daniels looked good in preseason and already established a rapport with WR “Scary” Terry McLaurin. The Commanders also signed RB Ausitn Ekeler in free agency, who scored 38 combined touchdowns in 2021 and 2022 before he was slowed down by injuries last season.
The Commanders face several weak opponents this season including four games against the NFC South. If the New York Giants have an off year, then the Commanders should win at least seven games.
Las Vegas Raiders 6.5 O/U
The Raiders made two smart decisions last season when they fired Josh McDaniels midseason, and hired interim head coach Antonio Pierce on a full-time basis. The Raiders went 8-9 in 2023 but had a winning record under Pierce.
The Raiders have yet to decide on a starting quarterback. Aidan O’Connell went 5-5 as a starter in his rookie season last year. Gardner Minshew began last season as a backup with the Indianapolis Colts, but posted a 7-6 record as a starter when Anthony Richardson got hurt.
The Raiders play two road games in Los Angeles this season against the Chargers in Week 1 and the Rams in Week 7. With so many fans of the silver and black located in SoCal, those two games at SoFi Stadium will feel like home games for the Raiders. Will that edge help them win seven games this year? Tough call.
Arizona Cardinals 6.5 O/U
Even with QB Kyler Murray missing half of last season while recovering from an ACL injury, the Cardinals somehow cobbled together a 7-10 record under rookie head coach Jonathan Gannon. Murray is now 100 percent healthy, and he gets to throw deep balls to the top incoming rookie wide receiver. The Cardinals selected Marvin Harrison, Jr. with the fourth-overall pick out of Ohio State, and he has a chance to become one of the most explosive receivers in the NFL this season.
The Cardinals will have to score a ton of points if they expect to win games because their defense is horrendous. A couple of reputable fantasy football sites, including Yahoo and Fantasy Pro, ranked the Cards dead last at #32.
Minnesota Vikings 6.5 O/U
The Vikings selected Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy with the #10 pick in the draft. He looked good in his first preseason game until he tore his meniscus in practice this week. The Vikings will have to rely on veteran Sam Darnold to start the season. The offense is anchored by star WR Justin Jefferson, and they added former Green Bay Packers RB Aaron Jones in free agency.
The Vikings drew a tough schedule in the first half of the season, which includes a game in London against the New York Jets. If they lose the season opener against the New York Giants, the Vikings could start 0-8.
Tennessee Titans 6.5 O/U
The Titans are another team that’s rebuilding under a rookie head coach. They let Mike Vrabel go after a 6-11 season and hired Brian Callahan, who earned accolades the last few seasons as the offensive coordinator of the Cincinnati Bengals. Let’s be honest though, second-year QB Will Levis is not in the same universe as Joe Burrow. At least Levis has a couple of veteran wide receivers in the mix like DeAndre Hopkins and Calvin Ridley.
New users can Get Your First Bet Back at Caesars Sportsbook. If your first cash bet loses, you’ll get it back as a Bonus Bet – up to $1,000.
Stud RB Derrick Henry is no longer with the Titans, but Tony Pollard will take his place. The Titans have a solid offense, but their biggest problem is their defense which is widely considered among the five worst in the league.
The Titans also have a tough schedule in September and early October, and it’s not a stretch to think they could start 1-6. BetMGM listed the Titans at +900 odds to finish the season with the worst record in the league.
New York Giants 6.5 O/U
The Giants were the surprise team of 2022 when they went 9-7-1 under Brian Daboll in a season where they were expected to only win a few games. As bad as the Giants looked at times in 2023, they still went 6-11 with multiple banged-up quarterbacks and an atrocious offensive line. Daboll’s job is on the hot seat this season with no shortage of rumors that Bill Belichick will replace him in 2025. With Daboll desperate to keep his job, winning seven or more games is a possibility.
The grossly overpaid Daniel Jones blew out his ACL last season, but he’s expected to start at quarterback in Week 1. Drew Lock is currently listed as the backup. Tommy DeVito is the third-string QB, but fans would love to see the local kid start again.
DeVito, an undrafted rookie who grew up in New Jersey, was the feel-good story last season. He went 3-3 as a starter and quickly won over the hearts and minds of fans in NYC while soaking up every second of his “15 minutes of fame.” If Jones struggles early on, expect Daboll to bench him and potentially give DeVito another shot.
