2024 Paris Olympics: Can Anyone Upset Team USA in Men’s Basketball?

Once again, the USA men’s basketball team is a heavy favorite going into the 2024 Olympics. But after some questionable performances in exhibitions leading up to the games, can the team led by LeBron James actually win?

Team USA is a huge favorite to win the gold medal in men’s basketball at the 2024 Paris Olympics. The American squad is loaded with NBA superstars like LeBron James, Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, and Anthony Davis which is why they’re currently -600 odds according to Caesars Sportsbook.

It’s a tossup between Canada or France as the America’s biggest threat to deny Team USA a fifth-straight gold medal. Canada and France are +1000 odds to win gold.

Meanwhile, DraftKings gives France the slight edge at +180 odds to meet USA in the finals, while Canada is +200 odds to reach the gold medal game.


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Although Sebria (+1600), Greece (+2000), and Germany (+2800) are long shots to win the gold medal, those squads are hoping to get hot in group play and get a crack at the medal round.

USA -600

The IOC allowed professional basketball players to play in the Olympic games for the 1992 Barcelona Olympics which is when the “Dream Team” was birthed. Since NBA players populated the rosters of Team USA, the Americans won seven gold medals and one bronze medal.

In 2004, Team USA had a disastrous and disappointing run in Athens during a magical year when Argentina won gold and Italy secured a silver medal. It’s been twenty years since that low point, and Team USA won four consecutive gold medals since then.

Team USA won their first three tune-up games against Canada, Australia, and Serbia. Head coach Steve Kerr has been experimenting with his stacked roster before he settles on a starting five. Durant has yet to suit up for Team USA while he nurses a calf injury. James, Curry, and Joel Embiid has started every exhibition game in a lead up to Paris. Jayson Tatum, Devin Booker, Anthony Edwards, and Jrue Holiday got a chance to start at least once.

Anthony Davis has been consistently the best performer even though he’s coming off the bench. Davis is paired with Bam Adebayo and the duo has been unstoppable together. The second unit also includes Tyrese Haliburton and Derrick White, who was an injury replacement for Kawhi Leonard.

Team USA headlines Group C, which also includes Serbia, Puerto Rico, and South Sudan. They already blew out a banged-up Serbia in an exhibition game.


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Canada +1000

Canada won a silver medal at the 1936 Berlin games, which was the first time that basketball was included at the Olympics. The Canadians have not won a medal in men’s basketball since then, but this year marks their best chance to win their second medal.

Canada surprised a lot of international basketball fans at the 2023 FIBA World Cup when they secured a bronze medal and picked off Team USA, who finished in fourth place. Based on last summer’s success, Canada is +1000 odds to win a gold medal this summer thanks to their roster that has numerous NBA stars.

Team Canada is led by MVP-candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander from the Oklahoma City Thunder, and Kelly Olynyk from the Toronto Raptors is the captain. The squad also has Jamal Murray, RJ Barrett, Dillon Brooks, Luguentz Dort, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Trey Lyles, Andrew Nembhard, Khem Birch, and Dwight Powell.

Canada got a tough draw with Group A that also included Greece, Australia, and Spain.

France +1000

France is the host country at the Olympics this year, so expect them to have a home-court advantage in their games.

France lost to Team USA in the gold medal game in at the 2020 Tokyo games (hosted in 2021 due to the pandemic). France notched a silver medal, which was their second since 2000. Expectations are extremely high for France, and anything short of another silver medal will be a disappointment.

France has an experienced roster with several NBA players including Rudy Gobert, Nicolas Batum, Evan Fournier, Frank Ntilikina, and Victor Wembanyama. All eyes will be on Wembanyama who recently won the 2024 NBA Rookie of the Year after an outstanding season with the San Antonio Spurs.

France is the best team in Group B, which also includes Germany, Brazil, and Japan. Right now, you can back France at +1000 to win a gold.

Serbia +1600

Serbia probably has the best player in the world in three-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokic from the Denver Nuggets. Even without Jokic last summer, Serbia advanced the championship game of the 2023 FIBA World Cup. They lost to Germany but still managed to win a silver medal without their best player.

Jokic is not the only member of the Serbian national team who has NBA experience. The roster also includes Bogdan Bogdanovic, Nikola Jovic, Aleksej Pokusevski, and Filip Petrusev.

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Serbia last won a medal at the 2016 Rio Olympics when they lost to the Americans in the championship game and settled on silver.

Serbia is easily the second-best team in Group C which includes USA, Puerto Rico, and South Sudan. If you’re looking to find a team that could potentially upset Team USA in pool play, it’s Serbia.

Greece +2000

Giannis Antetokounmpo is a two-time MVP with the Milwaukee Bucks and he’s also the star of the Greek national team. Even though most of his colleagues lack NBA experience, the tightly knit team has great chemistry. Greece secured their Olympic bid by defeating Slovenia in a qualifier and they denied NBA All-Star Luka Doncic a trip to Paris.

In pool play, Greece will have to navigate a difficult Group A that also includes Canada, Australia, and Spain.

Germany +2800

Germany is the reigning FIBA World Cup champions after they defeated Serbia last summer. Germany also has a roster filled with numerous NBA players including the Wagner brothers, Franz and Mo, who play for the Orlando Magic. The team also has NBA players like Dennis Schroder, Daniel Theis, and Oscar Da Silva. They also have the American-born Nick Weiler-Babb, who started for Iowa State, and has become a German citizen.

Germany is in Group B with France, Brazil, and Japan. Right now, the Germans are one of the long shots at +2800.

Olympic Moon Shots: Australia and Spain

Australia is a long shot at +3500 odds to win a gold medal, but they have an experienced international squad that includes former or current NBA players like Dyson Daniels, Matthew Dellavedova, Dante Exum, Josh Giddey, Josh Green, Joe Ingles, and Patty Mills.

For many years, Spain was the best team in Europe and the toughest competition for Team USA. Since 2008, Spain won two silver medals and one bronze but they were shut out in the last Olympics in Tokyo. Spain’s best years are behind them, which is why they’re a long shot at +6000 odds. Their squad has a few players who logged time in the NBA including Juancho Hernangomez, Willy Hernangomez, Santi Aldama, Lorenzo Brown, and Rudy Fernandez.


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Unfortunately for both Australia and Spain, they find themselves in one of the toughest groups that also includes Canada and Greece.

Group play begins Saturday, July 27. The knockout stage begins Tuesday, August 6. The gold medal game is slated for Saturday, August 10.

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