This year’s NBA Finals features a consensus favorite from the Western Conference and a surprise team from the Eastern Conference. The Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14) are the betting favorite to win the championship at -700 odds according to BetMGM. The Indiana Pacers (50-32) are +500 odds to win the title as the underdog. Regardless of which team wins, a seventh different champion in seven consecutive seasons will be crowned.
The Thunder were expected to reach the NBA Finals this season to presumably battle the defending champion Boston Celtics. The Celtics were the title favorite for the first couple months of the season before they were overtaken by the Thunder in late January. Before the season began, the Thunder were +650 odds to win the 2025 NBA championship as the second favorite at BetMGM. When the postseason began, the Thunder were the consensus title favorite at +165 odds.
At the start of the regular season, the Pacers were +5000 odds to win the championship. When the playoffs began, the Pacers were an even longer shot at +10000 odds to win the championship.
Everyone Loves OKC: Thunder (-700)
Path to the Finals: For a second postseason in a row, the Thunder secured the #1 seed in the West. They swept the #8 Memphis Grizzlies in the first round and sent the #6 Minnesota Timberwolves packing in five games in the conference finals. The #4 Denver Nuggets were their toughest competition and forced a seven-game series in the conference semifinals. The Thunder posted a 12-4 record in the postseason, but they’re only 7-9 against the spread.
Case for the Thunder: The Thunder had one of the best defensive squads during the regular season, and that elite defensive philosophy carried over into the playoffs, where they posted an NBA-best 104.7 defensive efficiency rating. Their disruptive defense held opponents to under 99 points six times, and held opponents to 106 points or less on nine instances. They only lost four games in the playoffs, and two of those losses either went into overtime or were decided by two points. They lead all playoff teams in defensive field goal percentage (42.5%). They have a robust perimeter defense and ranked fourth in 3-point defense (33.1%), and two teams higher than them were knocked out in the first round. The Thunder also led the NBA with 10.8 steals per game, and their chaotic defense induced the most turnovers in the postseason at 17.0 per game. The Pacers will want to play as fast as possible, but the Thunder are quick to get back on defense in transition and after made buckets.
Starting Five: PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (29.8 points, 6.8 assists, 5.7 rebounds), SF Jalen Williams (20.4 points, 5.8 rebounds, 5.3 assists), PF Chet Holmgren (16.4 points, 8.6 rebounds, 2.0 blocks). C Isiah Hartenstein (9.2 points, 7.9 rebounds), and G Lu Dort (7.8 points).
Second Unit: Mark Daigneault employs a nine-man rotation and has even used 10 this postseason. Keep an eye on OKC’s trio of guards off the bench with Alex Caruso (8.8 points, 2.5 assists, 1.8 steals), Aaron Wiggins (6.1 points), and Cason Wallace (5.4 points, 2.7 assists). Caruso, a veteran 3-and-D specialist, is their defensive stopper and best 3-point shooter at 41.5% from downtown.
MVP Watch: Gilgeous-Alexander won the regular season MVP, and he’s the consensus NBA Finals MVP at -600 odds. Jalen Williams is +3000 odds, and Chet Holmgren is +7500.
Eye-Popping Stat: The Thunder went 29-1 against Eastern Conference teams, which set an NBA record for best interconference record.
Fun Fact: Before the franchise relocated to Oklahoma City and was rebranded as the Thunder, Seattle SuperSonics won the 1979 NBA championship. The Sonics also advanced to the NBA Finals in 1979 and 1996, but didn’t win the title. The Thunder reached the NBA Finals only once before in 2012, but lost to LeBron James and the Miami Heat. If they win the title this year, it will be their franchise’s second championship but first as the Thunder.
Seeking First NBA Title: Pacers (+500)
Path to the Finals: The Pacers secured the #4 seed in the East and defeated the #5 Milwaukee Bucks in five games during the first round. The Pacers picked off the top-seeded Cleveland Cavs in the conference semifinals in five games. They clinched their first Eastern Conference crown in 25 years after knocking out the #3 New York Knicks in six games. The Pacers went 12-4 this postseason, including 11-5 ATS.
Case for the Pacers: The up-tempo Pacers keep defying expectations. They knocked out two better seeds, including the #1 seed Cavs, en route to an Eastern Conference title. Head coach Rick Carlisle won a championship with the 2011 Dallas Mavs, and he’s been stellar at making in-game and in-series adjustments. The Pacers have a well-balanced scoring attack with six players averaging double-digits. They were the second-highest scoring team in the playoffs, averaging 117.4 ppg. They’re not a high-volume 3-point shooting team, yet they were the most accurate in the playoffs and ranked #1 at 40.1 percent. The Pacers have the second-best offensive efficiency in the playoffs (117.7), but they face their toughest defensive opponent in the postseason.
Starting Five: PF Pascal Siakim (21.1 points, 5.8 rebounds, 46.3% 3PT), PG Tyrese Haliburton (18.8 points, 9.8 assists, 5.7 rebounds), C Myles Turner (15.2 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.3 blocks, 40.3% 3PT), SF Aaron Nesmith (14.1 points, 5.6 rebounds, 50.0% 3PT), G Andrew Nembhard (12.8 points, 5.1 assists, 48.3% 3PT).
Second Unit: Carlisle utilizes a 10-man rotation, which allows the Pacers to push the pace. SG Bennedict Mathurin (10.4 points) is their sixth man. PF Obi Toppin (8.7 ppg) logged key minutes in the fourth quarter during the conference finals. Veteran PG TJ McConnell (8.4) can be an annoying pest. He will be tasked with slowing down SGA and getting under his skin.
MVP Watch: Haliburton is the top MVP Finals candidate from the Pacers and second overall on the awards board at +700 odds. Siakim, the leading scorer for the Pacers all postseason, won the Eastern Conference Finals MVP. He’s currently at +1600 odds to win the Finals MVP.
Eye-Popping Stat: The Pacers won two games in the playoffs when they trailed by seven points in the final minute. They rallied back in the final 40 seconds to beat the Bucks in Game 5, and defeated the Cavs when they were down with 50 seconds remaining in Game 2. They also erased a 14-point deficit in the final 2:52 to beat the Knicks in Game 1.
Fun Fact: The Indiana Pacershttps://www.nyra.com/belmont/ won three ABA championships in the early 1970s, but they’re one of the few teams that never won an NBA championship. They won the Eastern Conference only once, but lost to the L.A. Lakers in the 2000 NBA Finals.
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