This is not only the rematch we needed, it’s the rematch America wanted. It’s the rematch every racing fan anticipated since the first Saturday in May.
You remember the first Saturday in May? When Journalism was less than a furlong away from winning the Kentucky Derby, only to have Sovereignty come from 16th place and sweep by him, as classic closers are wont to do, and win the Derby by 1 ½ lengths in the final sixteenth.
Belmont Belief
Saturday at Saratoga Race Course, we get the rubber match between the two top 3-year-old thoroughbreds in the country. The 157th Belmont Stakes returns to the Spa for the second year, courtesy of the construction on and surrounding Long Island’s Belmont Park. Once again, that reduces the third jewel of the Triple Crown from 1 ½ miles to 1 ¼ miles.
It does not, however, reduce the drama that has ridden shotgun along the way this entire Triple Crown season. Based on what happened in that Derby and what could have happened in the Preakness, this Belmont Stakes should be the setting for one of the best sophomore races of the year. Given the quality of these two—and possibly a third that we’ll get to momentarily—we could see one of the best sophomore races this century.
That we had to wait until the first Saturday in June to see these two duel again came three days after Sovereignty slopped to victory in the Churchill Downs muck. Bill Mott, the colt’s Hall of Fame trainer and one of the most respected conditioners in the game, announced he wasn’t sending his charge to Pimlico for the Preakness Stakes. The usual barrage of lamentations about how the Triple Crown is an antiquated relic of another era that needs to be changed; never mind two horses winning one in the last decade, followed.
Terrible Timing
The Preakness of late has always been the red-headed stepchild of the Triple Crown. It comes two weeks after the Derby and usually sports the weakest field of the three. Many trainers, prodded by owners eyeing big-figure breeding deals, don’t want their colts running two weeks apart.
Even in the Era of the Breeder, none of this mattered to Journalism’s trainer, Michael McCarthy, and the rest of the connections to the son of 2007 Preakness champion Curlin. McCarthy sent Journalism to Pimlico, where he wrote a magnificent story that illustrated why he is the most talented sophomore in the country.
Seemingly boxed in at the top of the stretch, jockey Umberto Rispoli forced his way through a hole only he saw, pinballed off two horses, then ran down Gosger in the stretch for a gutsy victory that not only secured his place in history, but basically saved the 2025 Preakness from being even more of an afterthought.
And, in so doing, setting up this Belmont Stakes.
Super Showdown
Journalism (the 8-5 morning-line favorite) has many of the traits carried by Belmont Stakes champions. He’s the progeny of a sire who won a Grade 1 route race, which 22 of the last 25 Belmont Stakes winners have on their resume. He’s a graded-stakes winner (four, if you’re scoring at home). Graded-stakes winners have captured 16 of the last 25 Belmonts.
He started in the Derby, as 12 of the last 20 Belmont Stakes winners have done. He’s a stalker, which is the preferred running style of a Belmont Stakes champion, especially at Saratoga over 10 furlongs.
And, he has the historic edge over Sovereignty. The Derby and Preakness winners have faced each other eight times at the Belmont since 1990. The Preakness winner has beaten his rival to the wire seven out of those eight times. Three times, the Preakness winner won the event.
As for Sovereignty (2-1), he comes in with an extra two weeks’ rest, along with being a Derby starter. Horses that went from the Derby to the Belmont have won three times this decade: Essential Quality (2021), Mo Donegal (2022), and Dornoch (2024). He checked that graded-stakes box with his Derby win and easily has this distance in his blood and legs.
The one knock against Sovereignty is that Saratoga’s 10-furlong races have not been kind to closers. Handicapper Noel Michaels analyzed the 34 1 1/4-mile dirt races run at Saratoga since 2000. He found that closers coming from four or more lengths off the pace were 4 for 34–a woeful 11.8 percent success rate. The last closer to win the Belmont Stakes from more than 10 lengths back was Jazil—in 2006.
That brings us to the X-factor: Baeza. Another Derby ex-pat who skipped the Preakness, Baeza offers a semblance of value at 4-1 and the same stalking style that travels well at Saratoga.
When we last saw Baeza, he was battling through the Churchill Downs slop, a top-of-the-stretch traffic jam, and a nine-wide trip down the stretch to finish only a neck behind runner-up Journalism in that Derby. He also finished less than a length behind Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby.
If Journalism falters (an ironic sentence if there ever was one) and you’re not sold on Sovereignty, Baeza is an easy go-to, especially with the value you’ll likely get compared to the two favorites. He should be on all of your tickets.
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