Last week, we missed going 2-1 by literally a foot—the one belonging to Indiana WR Nick Marsh, who caught Josh Hoover’s rainbow pass with his foot out of bounds on the Hoosiers’ final play.
And while Indiana +3.5 bettors were temporarily celebrating with the over-the-top voice of Fox Sports’ Gus Johnson, Marsh was holding his head in his hands in that “Damn, Damn, Damn” sense of helplessness. He knew before Johnson et-al did.
Now, contrast that with what happened to Georgia. The No. 1-ranked Bulldogs were 20.5-point favorites against Auburn. The Bulldogs lost 27-24, joining Indiana, Notre Dame, Alabama and Texas as one of five top-10 teams going down last week.
This illustrates the perils of betting college football. But nailing totals like Oklahoma State-Houston Over 62 with receipts illustrates the pleasures. The Cougars prevailed in that predictable shootout, 35-32.
And we’ll see the Cougars and Hoosiers again in this week’s picks.
Last week: 1-2. Season: 9-12.
Indiana, Michigan Take Us Back
This game could go anywhere, because there are plenty of wild cards being played on both sides of the Indiana-Michigan border.
We’ll start with what could be the overriding storyline coming into this game: Michigan benching the $12 million man QB Bryce Underwood in favor of freshman Tommy Carr. The grandson of former Michigan coach Lloyd Carr came on in the second half of last week’s 21-18 victory over Penn State and guided the Wolverines to three second-half touchdowns. Unlike Underwood, who tossed five interceptions in his last 10 quarters, Carr didn’t turn the ball over.
Nor did he throw the ball much, going 5 of 7 for 47 yards. But the Wolverines averaged 7.6 yards per carry once he was in the game.
Now, we segue into Indiana QB Josh Hoover, who is nursing an undisclosed shoulder injury after being crunched to the turf in last week’s loss to Ohio State. He missed only one play, but grimaced in pain after every toss.
This takes us from the wild cards to the trump cards, starting with Michigan’s Big Ten-leading total defense, one allowing 256.9 yards per game (third in FBS), an FBS-best 4.1 yards per play and 2.7 yards per rush (seventh).
Indiana’s defense is equally as stingy, allowing a Big Ten-best 12.9 points per game (fourth in FBS), while ranking top 10 in four defensive categories, most notably second in yards per rush (2.3) and third in rushing yards per game (75.4).
So where does this take us? Knowing the wild cards and these defenses, along with the fact that these two have played to the Under in three of the last four years, scoring 35, 41 and 36 points in those games, it takes us in the Wayback Machine to a good ol’ Big Ten rockfight.
Best Bet: Under 41.5 (-108 at BetMGM)
We’re Volunteering An Upset Here
At first glance, this looks like a fishy line. And when you consider South Carolina has won three of the last four home games in this series and when you look at the Gamecocks’ 38-19 dismantling of Florida as 10.5-point underdogs last week, your spidey senses are more alarmed.
Looking at South Carolina’s grinding rushing game, averaging an SEC-leading 232.3 yards per game (11th in FBS), and wondering how a line can be this off this late in the season sets off even more alarm bells.
Let’s turn them off. Tennessee also features a strong running game, averaging 217.1 yards per game. RB DeSean Bishop (837 yards, 10 TDs, 6.0 ypc) averages 4.5 yards after contact, which leads the SEC.
Now, let’s silence those bells once and for all. The Volunteers have the better defense, one that held Alabama to 10 points, 12 first downs, and 2.1 yards per carry in their 26-10 upset as 7.5-point favorites last week. Tennessee holds teams to 14.7 points (13th) and 280.6 yards per game (17th) and will be the best defense the Gamecocks have seen to date this season. If that wasn’t enough, behind DT Xavier Gilliam and his 10.5 tackles for loss, the Vols lead the nation in sacks-per-game (4.1).
We’ll take the better defense. And better yet, we’ll take the points.
Best Bet: Tennessee +2.5 (-110 at Caesars Sportsbook)
We’re Expecting More Fireworks Here
We’ll admit that Utah playing down to Colorado last week, eking out a 27-24 victory as 15.5-point favorites—not to mention a Gridiron Guru selection—has us cranky about going with the Utes this week.
Utah missed the cover for the first time this season and only the second time since last November. The Utes’ only other against-the-spread loss during that span came on November 28, when they barely missed covering a 10.5-point spread in a 31–21 victory over Kansas. Yes, the Utes are a covering machine, going 7-3 in their last 10 ATS. Especially at Rice-Eccles Stadium, one of the toughest venues for visiting teams.
However … Houston isn’t your typical visiting team, especially this year. The Cougars have covered both times they’ve been a dog this year: losing 28-26 at Texas Tech as 7.5-point dogs and beating Kansas State 35-16 as 2.5-point dogs.
Nor does Houston have the typical offense Utah has seen this year. Houston’s offense is firing on all cylinders behind quarterback Conner Weigman and his impressive 70% completion rate. Weigman has been exceptionally sharp away from home, tossing 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions on the road. Supported by his play, the Cougars rank 17th nationally with 39.3 points per game and 12th in yards per play (6.8). Overall, Houston ranks fifth in the nation in offensive EPA per play, adding elite scoring value on every snap.
Offensively, Utah is, well, Utah. The Utes see Weigman and raise QB Devon Dampier (1,412 yards, 15 TDs, 76 percent completion rate), who has 10 of those TDs at home. The Utes are also top 20 in yards per game (486/12th) and yards per play (6.8/16th).
All of which could lead us to take the Over-56.5, which isn’t a bad bet, considering Utah is 7-3 and Houston is 6-4 to the Over in their last 10 games. But we like the Cougars—who are 5-0 against Utah—getting nearly a touchdown.
Best Bets: Houston +6.5 (-108 at BetMGM) AND Over 56.5 (-109 at BetMGM)
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