As we noted last week, we’ll bounce back from a 0-3 week. We always do, and thanks to Iowa bludgeoning Washington by 17 as 3.5-point underdogs and Georgia benefiting from a non-call on a pass-interference penalty in the end zone to beat Alabama as 1.5-point dogs, we did.
There are few more satisfying feelings in the wagering world than watching a game play out exactly like you handicapped it. No bad beats that wind up on ESPN’s Monday night “Bad Beats” segment and no what-were-we-thinking-here? insanity. Those two games provided it.
Here, we have three intriguing matchups that we hope provide more.
Last week: 2-1. Season: 8-10.
Sun Worshippers and College Football Fans Unite
On April 8, 2024, an estimated 200,000 to 300,000 visitors rushed into Bloomington, Indiana, to see a solar eclipse in its totality. And 2 ½ years later, Bloomington is once again the center of the Solar System. This time courtesy of No. 4 Ohio State invading the Hoosier State to take on No. 5 Indiana.
The sun nearly set on the Hoosiers last week, when they escaped Nebraska with a 20-17 come-from-behind win as 8.5-point favorites. That was Indiana’s second “close call” in three games, following a 29-23 Houdini routine against Northwestern. That, as 20.5-point favorites.
So this—along with the Hoosiers being 1-4 ATS this season—explains one reason why the Buckeyes come in as 3.5-point favorites and why the betting market thinks the sun will set on Indiana this week.
However… this is INDIANA we’re talking about, coached by everyone’s favorite grumpy uncle—Curt “I Win, Google Me” Cignetti. The Sphinx-like Cignetti has the Hoosiers ranked in the FBS top-10 in five offensive categories, notably third in yards per play (7.8). Defensively, he also has Indiana fifth in points allowed per game (11.8), seventh in rushing yards (75) and 12th in yards allowed (263).
Of course, this is also OHIO STATE we’re talking about. And the Buckeyes, starring WR and Heisman favorite Jeremiah Smith (48 catches, 916 yards, 11 TDs, 19.2 ypc) will get theirs behind an offense ranked top-10 in seven categories, notably yards per passing attempt (first/11.2), passing yards (sixth/337) and yards per play (sixth/7.3)
The line opened this summer as a pick-em. That it is now essentially favoring the Buckeyes by a touchdown (factoring in the generally regarded three-point home field advantage) is too much value to ignore—especially with Cignetti pushing the buttons and keeping this close. Ignore that 1-4 ATS record here and get in now, while the hook exists.
Best Bet: Indiana +3.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
They’ll Be Making Their Points Here
In case the Nos. 4 and 5-ranked teams in the country aren’t enough excitement for you, here’s where we channel Russell Crowe’s iconic Maximus Decimus Meridius from Gladiator and ask you, “Are you not entertained?” Because if these two: No. 18 Oklahoma State and No. 20 Houston, don’t entertain you, well, perhaps your adrenaline system needs adjusting.
Not only does this game feature the first ranked-vs.-ranked game at TDECU Stadium in 11 years, but it features the No. 8-ranked offense (Oklahoma State) vs. the No. 16-ranked offense (Houston). Running those offenses are two of the country’s most entertaining quarterbacks: Oklahoma State’s Drew Mestemaker (1,575 yards, 13 TDs) and Houston’s Conner Weigman (1,428 yards, 15 TDs, 1 INT). Weigman pilots a Houston offense that ranks third in the FBS, racking up more than 27 first downs per game. That includes the 26 the Cougars rolled up in their 35-16 dispatching of Kansas State last week.
The question? Can the defenses keep up? Outside of Houston’s top-10 run defense that limits opponents to 74 yards a game on the ground (fourth in FBS), we doubt it.
In the last five meetings, dating to 2006, the Cowboys and Cougars have gone 5-0 to the Over—while averaging 72.2 points along the way. Last year’s 39-17 Houston win produced the lowest point total (56) in the series.
The spread has climbed to Oklahoma State +4.5, which is tempting. But considering Houston averages 40 points a game and Oklahoma State 38.3, our wagering entertainment comes from a different direction.
Best Bet: Over 62 (-110 at Caesars Sportsbook)
A Rocky Mountain High for Utah
Here’s a game where Colorado’s typical altitude advantage means zero, since Utah’s Rice-Eccles Stadium is only 723 feet lower than the Buffs’ Folsom Field. The No. 11-ranked Utes’ advantages start there—and climb accordingly.
Let’s begin with the fact that Utah’s 5-0 record includes wins by at least 14 points in every game. Three of those came by 33+ points. Let’s continue with the fact the Utes have won eight of 10 in this Rocky Mountain rivalry dating to 2016—while going 8-2 ATS along the way. And Colorado is 2-6 ATS as a road underdog dating back to last year and is 0-4 ATS in its last four this season.
That neatly segues into the inescapable fact that Colorado coach Deion Sanders’ team is a certifiable mess. The Buffs average only 18.3 points per game (123rd in FBS) and 5.3 yards per play (113th). Since blowing out Weber State, 52-21, Colorado scored seven (vs. Northwestern), 13 (vs. Baylor) and seven (vs. Texas Tech).
Defensively, Colorado is middle of the pack-to-respectable in most categories, which would carry more weight if the Buffs weren’t playing the FBS’ No. 1-ranked offense in yards per game (502) and points (42.8). Behind QB Devon Dampier, the balanced Utes average 238 yards on the ground (4th) and 264 through the air (8th).
You get the idea. So do early bettors, who have piled 87 percent of the moneyline dollars on the Utes. Coach Prime said Utah is “probably the best team we’re gonna face this season.” We won’t argue the point.
Best Bet: Utah -16 (-110 at Caesars Sportsbook)
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