We’ve had 0-3 weeks before, but never this bad.
Score one for outthinking the room (Navy-Air Force). You know the Service Academy Under trend. You’ve written about it. You’ve profited from it. So why go contrarian for the sake of going contrarian? Too many recent visions of Navy lighting it up that now need purging from the mental Samsonite.
Score one for overrating Arizona State and underrating Baylor. The Bears really are a sleeper team in every sense of the word—including putting a 55-17 sleeper hold on the host Sun Devils. Ouch. But notes have been taken.
And score one for at least being in the neighborhood with Utah State-Boise State. The Aggies were catching 20.5 and parlayed a turnover into a touchdown with 9:32 left. However, the Broncos responded a mere 1:05 later with an 11-yard TD pass from Maddox Madsen to Ben Ford.
Here’s where the dreaded Bad Beat hits. Boise State went for two and failed, costing the cover.
We own it when weeks like this happen. Fortunately, they happen not very often. But we’ll be back. We always are.
Last week: 0-3. Season: 6-9.
Our Eyes on are the Traveling Hawkeyes
There are several ways you can play this one, because neither of these teams are going to put up points. Washington hasn’t scored more than 24 points against an FBS opponent this season, and the Hawkeyes—in between putting up 40 and 55 against Northern Illinois and Northern Iowa—scored 16 (Iowa State), 20 (Michigan) and 14 (Ohio State).
But here’s something else Washington is putting up: an awful ATS report card. Betting on the Huskies these days is a moneysuck. Until it covered as 7.5-point dogs against USC last week (25-21), Washington was 0-4 ATS. This less-than-sterling record included losing outright to Minnesota at home as 12.5-point favorites, barely beating Utah State, 16-14, as 28.5-point favorites, and not coming close to covering as 23.5-point favorites in the Apple Cup rivalry game against Washington State.
Now, we put the Huskies’ No. 88 rating in yards per play and No. 120 ranking in rushing yards against an Iowa defense ranked eighth in points per game (12.6) and 22nd in yards per game (288). Even with Iowa being 0-2 SU in Big Ten West Coast games, this isn’t a hard puzzle to solve.
The total is Under-41.5 at the two books we checked, which is an option. So is Iowa at +138 on the moneyline. However, you’re catching 3.5 with a team in much better position to eke out a road win. And you’re catching a value-loaded 3.5—period.
Best Bet: Iowa +3.5 (-117 at Caesars Sportsbook)
Georgia is On Our Minds
You knew we were headed to Tuscaloosa eventually because this is not only the week’s marquee game, but a marquee value opportunity.
To illustrate how powerful Georgia is to date, Bulldogs’ QB Gunner Stockton has a 13-1 TD-to-INT ratio. And he hasn’t played a full game yet.
Why? Because of Exhibit B of Georgia’s dominance. The Bulldogs lead the nation in point differential, at an eye-watering +190. After outscoring Tennessee State and Western Kentucky, 133-23, Georgia has pile-driven SEC foes Arkansas (45-17), Oklahoma (41-13) and Vanderbilt (38-14). In none of these games have the Bulldogs and their nation-leading 51.4 points per game average been tested.
And that brings us to the first reason why the market hasn’t quite bought in on the Bulldogs. They haven’t been tested yet, with that Oklahoma victory as 14-point favorites the “closest” call Georgia has had.
Here comes the test, doubling as the second reason for the market’s skittishness. A 5-0 Alabama team welcomes the Bulldogs to Bryant-Denny with a better resume of vanquished opponents. The Crimson Tide are 3-1 ATS against Kentucky, Florida State, South Carolina and an improved Mississippi State, missing only against FSU in a 50-36 victory as 18.5-point favorites.
Alabama answers Stockton with sophomore QB Keelon Russell, a.k.a. your current Heisman Trophy second-favorite behind Ohio State’s incandescent WR Jeremiah Smith. Russell sits at 6-1 through the strength of 10 TDs and zero INTs in this last three weeks. He’s the architect of a Crimson Tide offense that is No. 4 in points per game (49.6). And this is where we should note that Georgia hasn’t won in Tuscaloosa since 2007.
However, here’s where we note the Bulldogs did beat Alabama, 28-7, in last year’s SEC Championship. Georgia is better defensively, ranking top-10 in five defensive metrics, including second in yards per play (3.9). And you’re getting 1.5 points with one of the most complete teams in the nation.
Best Bet: Georgia +1.5 (-108 at BetMGM)
Can the Beavers Build Enough Offense?
The total on this game opened at 53.5, drifted up as high as 57.5, before settling back down to its original total. We’ll explain why momentarily. And when you look at Oregon State’s last four games, they are 3-1 to the over, courtesy of a combined 59, 69, 40 and 82 points. San Diego State’s last four: 38, 39, 59 and 59—2-2 to the total.
When you look at Oregon State QB Braden Atkinson, you note he’s thrown for 300 or more yards in all five of the Beavers’ games this season. When you look at San Diego State, you’ll note they just put up 31 on Texas State, and all of this leads you to the Over.
Here’s where we disabuse you of that notion. Before that 31-point outburst—which included a pick-6 and a 96-yard kickoff return—the Aztecs scored 10 points against UCLA, 13 against James Madison and 16 against Toledo. They are 131st in FBS in yards per play (4.8), 106th in passing yards per game (153) 126th in yards per completion (10.0) and 132nd in yards per passing attempt (5.8). Their total offense is 128th out of 138 FBS teams. And here’s where we mention the Aztecs are dealing with a mumps outbreak.
Even with all that, this line suggests you’re expecting Oregon State to put up 40+ here. And with the most prolific passing offense in the country (377.4 ypg), the Beavers will score. But keep in mind Oregon State has also scored 20 points against Houston and 24 against Texas Tech. We’re not quite sure they’re going to hit this number—especially since these two are 1-3 to the Under in their four meetings.
Best Bet: Under -53.5 (-108 at BetMGM)
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