College Football Final Four: Exclusive Insights into the Best Betting Options

It’s Final Four time—in college football, with the final four teams in the College Football Playoff offering various value wagers to pounce on. Point spread? Over/Under? Number of yards? There are lots of betting options.

And then, there were four…

The inaugural, 12-team College Football Playoff did deliver us four bluebloods. They didn’t deliver us the four top-seeded bluebloods; all four (Oregon, Georgia, Boise State, and Arizona State) were wiped out in a New Year’s Eve/Day massacre in which only Arizona State put up a semblance of a fight, falling in double-OT to Texas.

Georgia and Boise State couldn’t dig out of self-inflicted ditches. And what was THAT, Oregon? You didn’t participate in any of the usual Rose Bowl Game festivities, such as going to Disneyland or gorging yourself on prime rib at Lawry’s for the Beef Bowl, so we’ll take any and all explanations as to where you were on the afternoon of January 1, 2025, and who was masquerading as the Oregon Ducks at the Rose Bowl.

But college football snobs aren’t turning their noses up at Ohio State, Texas, Notre Dame, and Penn State being the last four standing. Notre Dame and Penn State will tangle Thursday in one semifinal, d.b.a. the Cotton Bowl. Ohio State and Texas will take the stage Friday in the other semi, d.b.a. the Orange Bowl.

The Gridiron Guru, basking in the glow of another 2-1 week (thanks for allowing the back-door cover, Boise State—not) and a 7-2 record the last three weeks, will be chowing on homemade gumbo, munching popcorn and seeing which bluebloods will make their opponents see red.

Who’s Sitting in the Tall Cotton?

If you’re expecting offensive fireworks, look elsewhere. If you think Notre Dame and Penn State are suddenly going to develop collective amnesia and revert to some of their 40+-point games from earlier in the season, we’ll save you the shock now.

It’s not happening. Not with two of the best defenses in the country. This is trench warfare. Not Von Richthofen’s Flying Circus.

The Fighting Irish bring in the No. 2 scoring defense (13.6 points per game). The Nittany Lions counter with the No. 5 unit (15.8). Penn State is fourth in yards allowed (288.8); Notre Dame is seventh (295.4).

So they’re both stingy. How about opportunistic? Notre Dame was a plus-2 in turnover margin against Georgia, which explains how the Fighting Irish pulled out a 23-10 victory despite generating only 244 total yards of offense. That also explains how Notre Dame is third nationally in turnover margin at plus-18. Penn State is 20th at plus-10.

The Nittany Lions are here thanks to that defense and a ground game that chewed up 702 yards in its last three games. Notre Dame, which rides a six-game SU and four-game ATS winning streak as a bowl game favorite, is here because of that defense and a rushing defense that has surrendered only 11 TDs on the ground this year.

So where are the points coming from? Not in the Orange Bowl. That’s why the number has fallen to as low as 45 in some shops. But the best bet—even with the extra juice—is worth the squeeze.

Best Bet: Under-46.5 (-125 at BetMGM)

Orange Bowl Head Here

The entire state of Ohio may despise their neighbor up north, a.k.a. Michigan. But they owe their blood rivals a thank-you for the wake-up call the Wolverines left on November 30—that brutal 13-10 defeat that left Buckeye Nation cranky, bitter, and feral.

Nobody in Buckeye Nation is cranky or bitter now. Because the feral Buckeyes are that proverbial team nobody wants any part of now. Not after Ohio State dismantled Tennessee and Oregon by a combined score of 83-38. And neither game was remotely that close, as QB Will Howard has turned the CFP into his own highlight reel. He threw for 311 yards against Tennessee and 319 against Oregon.

Now, enter Texas, which displayed why it is one of the most manic-depressive teams in the country in its double-OT survival test against Arizona State. They scored twice in three plays against the Sun Devils in that Peach Bowl—then didn’t score until 10 minutes to go in the game. This is a testament to a team that moves the ball at will but can’t finish drives. The Longhorns are 73rd in points per red zone trip—not the stat you want to see when facing an Ohio State defense ranked No. 1 in red zone defense (3.09 points allowed per red zone possession).

That defense also ranks No. 1 in yards (244.6), yards per play (4.0), and passing yards (152.4), making us wonder again, how are the Longhorns going to solve the numerous riddles facing them on both sides of the ball.

Here’s the clincher. According to VSiN’s respected analyst Steve Makinen, Ohio State is on an insane 13-2 run ATS against teams ranked above them in the AP Top 25. This is unheard of in college football, especially when taking into consideration who the Buckeyes have played.

Even taking into account the Longhorns’ strength: a pass defense allowing only 166 yards a game (No. 3 nationally) and a top-ranked 5.5 yards per pass attempt, we’re all-in on both Howard finding the talented tandem of Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka and Ohio State finding its way back to Texas for the CPF Championship.

Best Bets: Will Howard Over 243.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM), or Ohio State -6 (-110 at BetMGM).

 


 

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History Playbook

On This Day In Sports History

February 5, 2012 — The Giants rally past the Patriots 21-17 in Super Bowl XLVI. It's a rematch of Super Bowl XLII four years earlier where the Giants upset the Patriots 14-10, ending New England's hopes for a perfect 19-0 season. In 2012, trailing 17-15, New York has the ball on their own 12-yard line with 3:46 remaining. Eli Manning connects with Mario Manningham for a 38-yard completion. The Giants advance to the New England six-yard line where Ahmad Bradshaw scores with 57 seconds left.

On This Day In Sports History

February 3, 2002 — The Patriots win the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history by beating the heavily favored St. Louis Rams 20-17. The New England quarterback is second year pro Tom Brady. The Patriots win on a 48-yard field goal by Adam Vinatieri as time expires.​