OK, the usually trusty Service Academy Under made us sweat last week. Air Force squeaked out a 24-21 victory to capture the Commander-in-Chief Trophy for the first time since 2022. Oh yes, we’ll stop burying the lead and tell you we got 45.5 as our total.
We’ll take it, especially since that disputed call at the end of the Miami-Notre Dame game where Miami TE Elija Lofton seemed to catch the game-winning TD with 3:36 left. He caught the ball in the corner of the end zone and got one foot down.
Or did he? The ball moved just enough to allow Notre Dame DB Luke Talich to knock it loose. The officials ruled the pass incomplete, and the Fighting Irish held on for a 31-24 victory that kept their playoff hopes alive.
That would have been our first 3-0 week of the season. Yes, we’re overdue on that front.
One game that we didn’t include this week that you may want to look at is North Texas-UTSA. Even with a total of 75.5, this game screams OVER in capital letters, since these two are a combined 13-4 to the Over this year and average nearly 78 points combined.
North Texas hasn’t scored fewer than 35 points since a season-opening 52-16 beatdown by Indiana and has scored 52, 48, 49, and 50 in its last four games. UTSA, meanwhile, spit up 60 to Florida Atlantic last week.
Last week: 2-1. Season: 12-15.
These Bulldogs are Quite Feral
It’s either a testament to the brutality of the SEC or a testament to Missouri’s resilience that the Tigers are ranked 22nd despite three losses. At one time, the Tigers were 5-1, before dropping two of their last three, including last week’s 34-20 loss to Texas.
We’ll go with equal measures of both. Not that this is an easy week on any front. Waiting for Missouri between the hedges in Athens is the No. 1-ranked team in the country, doubling as the toughest game on the Tigers’ slate in their last seven games.
And the Georgia Bulldogs are more problematic for several reasons. They’ve beaten Missouri the last 10 times. The Tigers haven’t beaten Georgia since 2013, and about their only takeaway in that time is a 7-3 ATS streak.
It doesn’t figure to get any better Saturday. Georgia’s defense is top-eight in seven categories, allowing opponents only 13 points a game (eighth) and a miserly 4.2 yards per play (fourth). Georgia QB Gunner Stockton leads the SEC in passing TDs (20), four coming in last week’s 42-7 demolition of Ole’ Miss. Oh, and Stockton completed only nine passes in that game.
Yes, the Bulldogs are technically beatable. With Stockton being Stockton and their defense rising up, allowing only 1.9 yards per carry the last two weeks on the ground, they’re just not beatable right now. Georgia is 7-2 ATS this season, while Missouri is 1-3 ATS as an underdog.
No reason to parse this any further.
Best Bet: Georgia -15.5 (-107 at Caesars)
Utes Avoid The Wildcat Trap
If there was ever the definition of a trap-game spot, you’re looking at it—if you’re a Utah Utes fan. You just finished sweating out a 28-20 Holy War win over your in-state rivals at BYU. This, after you’ve answered every challenge thrown at you by the likes of Big 12 rivals Houston, Iowa State, and Cincinnati.
So now, you’re the No. 2 team in the country and one of only two undefeated FBS teams (UCLA being the other). You have a dark-horse Heisman contender in QB Devon Dampier, the architect of an offense ranked in the top-20 in five major categories. When he was at New Mexico two years ago, Dampier (2,053 yards with 20 TDs; 480 yards and seven TDs rushing) welcomed Arizona coach Brett Brennan to Tucson with 390 yards of total offense and five total TDs.
Now, factor in Arizona’s depleted secondary. The Wildcats could be missing four starters through injury. This puts pressure on a respectable, aggressive defense that can give up the big play.
On the bright side for Arizona, it also puts the onus on Arizona QB Noah Fifita. If it seems Fifita has been around forever, he has. The active FBS leader in passing yards (11,977) and touchdowns (94) is making his 44th consecutive start. He rides in with 2,794 yards and 21 TDs on a 73% completion rate.
And yet—we don’t see the jaws snapping on the Utes. Nobody has had an answer for Dampier or the Utes’ underrated defense, one allowing 13 points a game. As tricky as Arizona is, Utah has an answer for all of them.
At this writing, you can get the Utes -3 at a nice -102 price at BetMGM. But Caesars gives you a better number, albeit with more juice.
Best Bet: Utah -2.5 (-117 at Caesars)
Nothing Offensively Still in Stillwater
Last week, nightcappers looking for a late get-even game didn’t have to look further west than Lubbock, Texas, where Texas Tech and West Virginia blew out the scoreboard lights in a 53-48 shootout that sailed 32.5 points over the 68.5-point total. In case you missed it, fear not. These two promise more of the same.
Oklahoma State ranks 11th in the Big 12 and 98th overall in rush defense, which plays right into the legs of Texas Tech RB Koby Williams, who has 335 rushing yards in his last two games. The Cowboys rank a woeful 127th in total defense, surrendering 384 yards per game. They rank 114th in points allowed (27.2). Yes, this is a bad defense.
However, Texas Tech fans. Your team’s not any better, allowing 402 yards and nearly 25 points a game. Your pass defense is among the nation’s worst, giving up 287 yards (133rd), on 38 attempts (135th) and allowing 27 completions (134th). Quarterbacks are completing nearly 65 percent of their passes on you, which plays right into the hands of Oklahoma State QB Drew Mestemaker, the architect of the nation’s No. 1-ranked offense (533 yards per game) and No. 1-ranked passing offense (339 yards per game).
Yes, Texas Tech, you rang up 638 yards against a horrific West Virginia defense last week. And yet, you gave up 582.
So yes, expect points. Oklahoma State has averaged more than 57 points over its last three contests, scoring 66, 49, and 57 in the last three weeks. The Cowboys are third in the nation in scoring. Texas Tech counters with QB Thomas Castellanos, who replaced Will Hammond as the starting quarterback just in time to help the Red Raiders average 43.5 points and 555 yards during the span.
You could take the Over-73 at Caesars. But we think Texas Tech, one game behind Utah in the Big 12 standings, has a little more defense in the tank here.
Best Bet: Texas Tech +3.5 (-112) OR Texas Tech Moneyline +140 (BetMGM)
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