The Guide returns from a week handicapping the creatures who can’t explain themselves. You know them as thoroughbred horses. Now I’m handicapping thoroughbreds who often explain themselves in frustrating, inexplicable fashion on a college football field near you.
Call it Midterm Week. Because each of our three games feature teams who are being tested for the first time (Hi, Michigan Wolverines and Georgia Bulldogs!) Others feature teams needing to pass tests to prove their relevance and prove their conference title bona-fides. Yes, we’re talking about you, USC Trojans and you too, Penn State Nittany Lions.
Two of the Guide’s games this week require you as the bettor to pass your own test of fortitude, because of their tricky, counterintuitive nature and tempting alternative scenarios.
Two weeks ago: 2-1, Season: 17-11
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USC Trojans Face Tough Game of Duck-Duck-Goose
The scenarios here are as endless to ponder as they are dangerous to navigate. That is because the Oregon Ducks are playing the best football of any team in the nation. They own the 11th-ranked scoring defense in the country. They are averaging a nation’s-best 49.5 points a game and are 7-1-1 against the spread. The only loss was a backdoor cover by Washington State.
Bo Nix has passed his way into the Heisman Trophy discussion, where he’s +500 as the Guide types this and it’s little secret that he and his teammates view this game as not only the spike through USC’s Pac-12 championship heart, but a spike toward his Heisman hopes. That all awaits a USC team that has allowed an average of 44.5 points per game in its last seven—including 52 in last week’s 52-42 loss to the Washington Huskies. Teams have run over the Trojans for at least 193 yards seven times this season.
They are a defensive dumpster fire, albeit one that just threw their now-former defensive coordinator Alex Grinch into the proverbial dumpster. This explains why the Ducks are 15-point favorites, which is where we should mention USC is 2-8 ATS. All that said, the Trojans come into Autzen Stadium as the proverbial cornered dog with a still-feral offense, meaning do you want to give 15 points to an offense averaging 45.5 points a game? Not when these two have a record of turning games into a track meet. They’ve surpassed 73 points four times in their last seven games—and hit 73 on the dot in a fifth.
Best Bet: Over-73.5 points (-110 at BetMGM)
Watch: Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET, FOX or fuboTV
Michigan, Penn State Face Mutual Tests
Say “hello” to two of the best defenses in the country. Michigan allows teams a mere 6.7 points per game. Penn State? Only 11.7. In terms of yards allowed? The Wolverines are No. 1 (231.4); the Nittany Lions No. 2 (234.4). This explains why little attention is being paid to the total and all the attention paid to two variables in this equation.
First, how will Michigan cope with its first real test of the season. It’s one thing to take apart Rutgers, UNLV, Indiana and Purdue. It’s quite another to take down a Penn State team in Happy Valley that allows a nation’s-best 3.8 yards per play, is 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS this season. The weapons with J.J. McCarthy (+380) and running back Blake Corum are there, anchoring an offense averaging 40.7 points per game. Does Penn State have the defensive answers nobody else has been able to find this season? That takes us to variable No. 2: can the Nittany Lions forget they were embarrassed by Ohio State three weeks ago? That 20-12 loss wasn’t that close as Penn State amassed only 240 yards of offense. QB Drew Allar was 18-of-42 for 191 yards with two turnovers. He faced a fierce pass rush very similar to what awaits him Saturday. Penn State Coach James Franklin is 3-16 SU against top-10 teams. We’re betting on Michigan passing its test—and Penn State failing its again.
Best Bet: Michigan -4.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Watch: Saturday, Noon ET, FOX or fuboTV
Rebel, Rebel, Here’s Another Georgia Test
Here’s another dangerous wagering scenario—betting against Georgia between the Athens hedges. The last time a team beat the Bulldogs in Athens was October 2019. That was when Will Muschamp was the South Carolina Gamecocks’ coach turning the trick. Muschamp is now Georgia’s co-defensive coordinator, meaning he’s charged with scheming a defense against one of the most explosively versatile teams in the country.
The Ole Miss Rebels average 38.8 points a game (14th in the nation) and 479 yards a game (12th). QB Jaxson Dart has a rating of 152.9, completing 63% of his passes for 900 yards and six TDs against AP Top 25-ranked teams. He’s averaging 10.1 yards per attempt to go with 16 TDs and only four interceptions total. Ole Miss presents the biggest test the No. 1-ranked Bulldogs have seen to date and—outside of a 51-13 beating of Kentucky a month ago—haven’t been the meat grinder we’ve grown accustomed to seeing. Georgia is 3-6 ATS this season, the byproduct of doing a tick over the minimum needed to win. Yes, Ole Miss Coach Lane Kiffin is 0-3 SU against top-five teams and could go 0-4 here without raising eyebrows. But we’re Rebel Yelling to anyone listening at the concept of getting double-digit points.
Best Bet: Ole Miss +11 (-110 at Caesars)
Watch: Saturday, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN or fuboTV
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