If it’s the first Saturday in March, Santa Anita Park is running one of the premier Kentucky Derby preps of the late winter—the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes. And if the San Felipe is co-headlining a marquee day of racing at the West Coast track, with the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap, you know Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has a horse or two involved.
And you know if Baffert is involved, marquee horses are involved—$5.4 million worth of marquee horses.
This year’s Baffert armada is Brant, a $3 million purchase, and Potente, a $2.4 million yearling purchase running his second race of the season. But before we delve further into those two and a cheaper colt who may steal the race from both, let’s discuss why the 1 1/16-mile, two-turn San Felipe is one of the key Derby preps of the winter.
Horse Haven
The San Felipe dates to 1935, and its winner’s roll illustrates why Derby horseplayers pay attention to this race. Last year’s winner, Journalism, won the Preakness and hit the board in all three Triple Crown races. Authentic (2020), California Chrome (2014), Fusaichi Pegasus (2000), Sunday Silence (1989), Affirmed (1978), and Determine (1954) all wore Derby roses the first Saturday in May. Affirmed won the Triple Crown, and California Chrome and Point Given (2001)—who ran the table his sophomore year after finishing fifth in the Derby—won two legs, along with the Haskell and Travers stakes. And while 2009 winner Pioneerof the Nile didn’t win a Triple Crown race, he did sire a Triple Crown winner—American Pharoah.
Trying to join that august group are seven colts, including the aforementioned Baffert duo, Brant. The class of the field brings his $3 million price tag into his first race in more than four months. We haven’t seen the Gun Runner colt since he set the pace, but failed to close, in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on October 31. Brant led that race until the stretch, when he tired and finished third by 1 ½ lengths in the 1 1/16-mile race to Ted Noffey.
Before that, Brant debuted with a 5 ¼-length romp in a Del Mar maiden, then followed that with a near gate-to-wire length victory in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity. His early speed and threat to wire the field make him dangerous; his hitting the two-turn-wall effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile makes him a question mark.
Second Choice
Baffert’s “B” entry, Potente, doesn’t have the resume of his stablemate. But he does have a great pedigree for routes, being an Into Mischief progeny out of an Awesome Again mare. He comes into the starting gate with one start on the CV, a three-quarter-length score in a January six-furlong maiden race at Santa Anita. There, he went gate-to-wire, illustrating his speed at that distance. A key element here is Baffert’s go-to Santa Anita jockey, Juan Hernandez, taking the reins on Potente instead of Brant, who gets Florent Geroux.
The wild card here, who will take plenty of contrarian money, is So Happy. A bargain at $150,000, the son of Champion sprinter Runhappy is unbeaten in two races: a November maiden race at Del Mar by three-quarters of a length and an impressive, two-length score in the Grade 1 San Vicente in mid-January. So Happy captured the San Vicente with a pace-stalking style that could set up nicely in this front-end-speed-loaded field. Expect Hall of Fame jockey, the ageless Mike Smith, to park So Happy behind Brant, rail-sitter Flashy Fritz, and Potente and make his move at the top of the stretch.
Like Brant, So Happy’s question lies in his ability to go two turns and cover 8 ½ furlongs without hitting the wall.
Afterburners
The two intriguing candidates to hit the board are Secured Freedom, who finished third in a strong Robert B. Lewis Stakes field going a two-turn mile, and Start the Ride, who has experience covering this distance. He rallied for a nearly two-length victory in the 1 1/16-mile California Chrome Cal Cup Derby at Santa Anita on January 17. That race came against Cal-breds at Santa Anita, making the lightly raced (two events) Upside colt a wise-guy choice to hit the board. Like So Happy, Start the Ride will sit back, let the pace develop, then hit the afterburners.
What makes the San Felipe more intriguing is the absence of the 1-2 runners in that Robert B. Lewis: Plutarch and Intrepido. The former is sidelined, the latter is waiting for the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby next month. That means the San Felipe winner earns 50 Derby qualifying points, making him a near slam-dunk to enter the Churchill Downs starting gate the first Saturday in May.
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